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Joao Wedson

RT Alphractal: The MVRV is widely known as a fundamental oscillator for on-chain profitability analysis.

It calculates the direct ratio between Bitcoin's market cap and realized cap the average acquisition cost of every circulating coin.

— MVRV = 1: financial neutrality.
— MVRV < 1: systemic undervaluation.
— MVRV > 1: overvaluation and latent profitability.

Below 1, the indicator marks every market bottom with precision. The red circles on the chart confirm it.

But the same simple logic fails at market tops. Here's why and the statistical fix 🧵