Joao Wedson

RT Alphractal: Every rally looks like conviction. Every drop looks like capitulation.
But price alone tells you nothing about whether a move can sustain itself.
What separates a real trend from a liquidity trap is how price moves together with Open Interest.

There are 4 possible scenarios. Each one tells a different story 🧵

CryptoCon

It's times like these that I start to look like a perma bear, but really I'm just supporting the cycle to continue as usual, which is the bear market to play out in full. (End of 2026)

Fear and Greed has returned to neutral, similar to other cycles at this time after the same set of moves.

The short-term cycle is repeating itself again:

1. Price makes a big move to the downside... Everyone: "It's over" (Feb 2026)

2. Price balances and the dust settles.... Everyone: "Maybe it's ok, but probably not." (Mar - Apr 2026)

3. Price rebounds into a local high.... Everyone: "I knew the bottom was in, the 4-year cycle is over." (May 2026)

We saw the same psychology in November 2025 - January 2026.

This is how local highs and lows go undetected.

Joao Wedson

Onchain levels map Bitcoin’s price history like no other metric does.

And for Bitcoin, price has just reached a key resistance level. Tomorrow we will see whether it has enough strength to break through it.

This metric is based on CVDD, but unlike the CVDD used by other platforms, Alphractal’s CVDD was adjusted based on Bitcoin’s issuance eras rather than a fixed value. Full credit for this improvement goes to arch_physicist!