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Joao Wedson

Anyone who has worked with Data for many years and truly understands Statistics can easily recognize a classic market pattern: when a technology gains traction, marketing often arrives before maturity.

Much of what is being said about AI today is driven by narrative.

Yes, Artificial Intelligence has existed for decades.
Neural networks are not new.
Machine Learning did not start in 2023.

The real difference is simple:
Today it is more accessible.
More intuitive.
More integrated into products.

But claiming that AI will broadly replace humans is a technical mistake.

Those who understand modeling know that:

• Models depend on data quality
• Data carries structural bias
• Correlation is not causation
• Overfitting still exists
• Regimes change
• Context matters
• Interpretation requires domain expertise
• Decisions involve risk and accountability

AI is a tool.
A powerful one, without question.

But it still depends on:
Human curation
Critical thinking
Statistical validation
Governance
Practical experience

Automating repetitive tasks is one thing.
Replacing human judgment under uncertainty is something entirely different.

Anyone who has dealt with real data, noise, outliers, non-stationary series, and regime shifts understands this.

Technology evolves.
Marketing exaggerates.
Statistics remains the foundation.

In the long run, the difference between hype and reality always becomes clear.

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CryptoCon

The most popular cycle bottom indicator being used is Weekly RSI.

Simply put, it's oversold, and other times that's happened were the cycle bottom.

So what's the difference this time? Why wouldn't the bottom be in?

Most RSI time frames show that Bitcoin failed to reach cycle top levels, as did many other indicators.

Take 22 day RSI for example, which has a hyper-accurate channel for cycle tops and bottoms. No cycle top triggers last cycle. About 10 points off at its highest.

Now it's at a place that would usually be the precise bottom. But if there's weakening at the top end, it opens the door for weakening at the lower end and the channel to break.

Be careful of the "always" metrics. Prior accuracy does not imply future accuracy, and a lot of the time intuition is required.

>> ROTA
apsk32

Time deviation is all you need. Both plots fit the base of Bitcoin's price trajectory to a power curve. Both plots measure trend deviation using time. Time is our most precious resource.

The fear and greed indicator ignores cycles. It tells us where price is today with respect to the distribution of time deviation.

The cycle cloud folds four-year segments on top of each other to compare our position to past cycles.

A little something for everybody. I like both. Happy Friday!

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Cauê Oliveira

Fica bem evidente a diferença de posicionamento entre a OpenAI e Anthropic.

Sam Altman já tinha interesse em vender dados e vigilância em massa com a Worldcoin.

Esse é só mais um passo.

Fica bem evidente que a OpenAI não se preocupa com privacidade e vai abrir as pernas ao estado.