SATOSHI [2140] ° NOSTR ° AI LLM ML ° LINUX ° ₿USINESS • OSINT | HODLER TUTORIAL
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Matrix = "Corrida dos ratos"
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🧨 The latest Bitcoin drop wasn’t “just another correction.”
It was a clear capitulation event.
And you can prove it by looking at three signals that rarely show up together:

1️⃣ Hash Rate plunged over 30 days
Miners shutting down machines = real pressure on the ecosystem.
When miners start bleeding, it usually means the market is hitting its limit.
2️⃣ Price drawdown hit extreme levels
A fast, violent drop — way outside the historical median.
This isn’t a technical move… it’s pain. It’s forced selling. It’s liquidation.
3️⃣ Active supply spiked
People who usually hold BTC for months (or years) started spending their coins.
This behavior only appears when sentiment breaks.
When these three signals flash at the same time, the Capitulation Oscillator shoots up — and that almost always marks the final phase of a downtrend or a flattening phase like we saw in 2021.

It’s not a guarantee of an immediate bottom, of course.
CryptoCon

Extreme Fear showing on Bitcoin fear and greed, but that does not mean it's time to rush and buy.

This shows a change in trend, from bullish to bearish.

There was a large-scale bearish divergence in August 2025, which has also appeared at every other cycle top.

The reason I think a lot of the traditional cycle top metrics (like the Pi Cycle Top, etc.) missed this cycle is because of two reasons:

1. Overly optimistic projections
2. Heavy bearish divergence

Heavy intuition was required, similar to the last cycle, but even more so this time.