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The Bitcoin Historian

JUST IN: U.S. CFTC JUST ANNOUNCED TO ALLOW #BITCOIN AS MARGIN COLLATERAL FOR FUTURES MARKETS

THIS IS HUGE 🔥
Cauê Oliveira

🚨Todo mundo está focando na alta do petróleo, mas tem algo ainda mais PREOCUPANTE.

O Oriente Médio é um hub crítico de várias commodities essenciais ao mesmo tempo:

45% do enxofre global
22% de fertilizantes (ureia, amônia, DAP)
34% do petróleo
33% do hélio
~30% de insumos petroquímicos

Isso não é só energia. É a base da cadeia produtiva global.
Esses insumos alimentam diretamente:
- agricultura
- plásticos
- transporte
- semicondutores
- construção

Ou seja, o risco não é só gasolina mais cara.

Se essa região sofre disrupção, o impacto se espalha em cascata:

fertilizantes mais caros → alimentos mais caros
petroquímicos mais caros → bens industriais mais caros
energia mais cara → tudo mais caro

O mercado ainda está olhando para o petróleo.
Mas o choque real pode vir da cadeia inteira.
Cauê Oliveira

Nessas horas os haters somem quando veem esses dados.

Bitcoin não tem se comportando como ativo de risco tradicional nos momentos de tensão geopolítica recentes.

O desempenho de preço nos primeiros 30 dias após a invasão da Ucrânia e ataques de Israel/EUA ao Irã.

Mesmo com muitos FUD propagados no mercado, os números que a @BinanceResearch postarou mostram algo diferente no quesito "hedge geopolítico".

Inclusive, tem amante do ouro que parece sumido, não?
Joao Wedson

This is why so many people lose money in crypto.

This chart explains crypto better than most headlines ever could.

Every cycle begins with disbelief. Then comes confirmation. Then momentum. Then excess.

In crypto, the greatest opportunities usually appear when fear is high, volume is still low, and conviction is scarce. That is the phase where smart money is positioning quietly, long before the crowd feels comfortable.

The worst decisions usually happen later, when momentum looks unstoppable, sentiment turns euphoric, and everyone suddenly becomes a market expert. What feels safe in that moment is often where risk is already much higher.

Accumulation happens in silence. Distribution happens in excitement.
If you want to survive this market, stop chasing narratives and start understanding cycle structure, liquidity, sentiment, and crowd behavior.

Always use data to make informed decisions and reduce herd behavior.

Data > Narratives.
Joao Wedson

Are Bitcoin miners on vacation?

Back in January, I pointed out that Bitcoin mining had not yet capitulated.
Shortly after, price dropped from ~$96K to near $60K.
Hash Rate recovered slightly, but is now weakening again.

In other words, the mining sector is losing momentum, and many ASICs across multiple companies are either idle or turned off.
This trend suggests a decline in total mining power.

There are two possible paths for the mining sector:
1. Hardware innovation
New ASIC architectures with better performance and lower energy consumption.
The challenge is that most companies already made heavy investments between 2023–2024, making another upgrade cycle difficult in the short term.

2. Compute reduction and consolidation
Reducing hash power to survive until capitulation ends.
This would likely crush smaller miners with tight margins, while larger players gain even more control over the network.

As usual, when mining enters capitulation, miners tend to increase selling pressure on BTC.

But one thing must be said:
Miners are among the most resilient participants in the ecosystem.
They are used to enduring -70% to -80% bear markets, more than most.
This is why on-chain mining metrics are so important.
Throughout 2025, signals were already pointing to stress in the sector and it played out: a cycle top followed by a bear phase.

Analysts should pay closer attention to Bitcoin mining dynamics to better anticipate market opportunities.

Data: https://xcancel.com/joao_wedson/status/2012918756368912777
CryptoCon

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