Forwarded from Alphractal - Crypto Research
🇧🇷 Brazil heads to the polls today, but what does monetary history reveal about the future of its economy?
Over the past two decades, Brazil has experienced different governments, economic crises, shifts in monetary policy, and periods of significant appreciation and decline in the Ibovespa.
Our charts highlight two fundamental indicators for understanding this history: Brazil's M2 Money Supply and the Central Bank of Brazil's balance sheet, including their year-over-year (YoY) changes.
In 2008, the global financial crisis triggered a sharp market correction, followed by significant shifts in monetary conditions.
Between 2015 and 2016, Brazil experienced a deep recession, accompanied by substantial contractions in the annual changes of both monetary indicators.
Then, in 2020, the pandemic introduced extraordinary economic disruption, with sharp fluctuations in liquidity and monetary conditions.
Now, in October 2026, something particularly interesting is happening:
• Brazil's M2: U$$1.57 trillion, with an annual increase of approximately U$$239.28 billion.
• Central Bank of Brazil: U$$825.47 billion, with an annual increase of approximately U$$64.59 billion.
• Ibovespa: Approximately 205,000 points, trading near historical highs.
The YoY charts reveal something important: monetary expansion and contraction occur in cycles, and these shifts have historically coincided with major turning points in Brazil's financial markets.
After periods of negative annual changes, both indicators are now back in positive territory, suggesting renewed monetary expansion.
But this raises an important question:
How much of the appreciation in Brazilian financial assets reflects real economic growth, and how much is influenced by monetary expansion, inflation, and changing liquidity conditions?
Monetary expansion does not automatically translate into higher stock prices, but understanding these cycles provides valuable context for investors.
Presidents come and go.
Economic cycles change. But the relationship between money, interest rates, confidence, and asset prices remains fundamental.
Today, Brazil chooses its next president. For investors, one of the biggest questions is how the next administration's economic policies will shape liquidity, monetary stability, and capital markets in the years ahead.
📊 More than two decades of Brazil's monetary and financial history, visualized through Alphractal.
Alphractal | Data Beyond the Market.
Alphractal.com
Over the past two decades, Brazil has experienced different governments, economic crises, shifts in monetary policy, and periods of significant appreciation and decline in the Ibovespa.
Our charts highlight two fundamental indicators for understanding this history: Brazil's M2 Money Supply and the Central Bank of Brazil's balance sheet, including their year-over-year (YoY) changes.
In 2008, the global financial crisis triggered a sharp market correction, followed by significant shifts in monetary conditions.
Between 2015 and 2016, Brazil experienced a deep recession, accompanied by substantial contractions in the annual changes of both monetary indicators.
Then, in 2020, the pandemic introduced extraordinary economic disruption, with sharp fluctuations in liquidity and monetary conditions.
Now, in October 2026, something particularly interesting is happening:
• Brazil's M2: U$$1.57 trillion, with an annual increase of approximately U$$239.28 billion.
• Central Bank of Brazil: U$$825.47 billion, with an annual increase of approximately U$$64.59 billion.
• Ibovespa: Approximately 205,000 points, trading near historical highs.
The YoY charts reveal something important: monetary expansion and contraction occur in cycles, and these shifts have historically coincided with major turning points in Brazil's financial markets.
After periods of negative annual changes, both indicators are now back in positive territory, suggesting renewed monetary expansion.
But this raises an important question:
How much of the appreciation in Brazilian financial assets reflects real economic growth, and how much is influenced by monetary expansion, inflation, and changing liquidity conditions?
Monetary expansion does not automatically translate into higher stock prices, but understanding these cycles provides valuable context for investors.
Presidents come and go.
Economic cycles change. But the relationship between money, interest rates, confidence, and asset prices remains fundamental.
Today, Brazil chooses its next president. For investors, one of the biggest questions is how the next administration's economic policies will shape liquidity, monetary stability, and capital markets in the years ahead.
📊 More than two decades of Brazil's monetary and financial history, visualized through Alphractal.
Alphractal | Data Beyond the Market.
Alphractal.com