Despite Bitcoin’s impressive rally last year, MVRV levels above 3.2 - typically associated with extreme euphoria - haven’t been reached this cycle yet. If BTC were to hit this level, it would correspond to a price tag of ~$132K. #ATH

📊 Historically, BTC price has spent only ~5% of trading days above this threshold, reinforcing why it’s viewed as a rare "extreme euphoria" zone.

❓ Will MVRV reach 3.2 this cycle? While momentum remains positive, with MVRV still above the 1-year MA (currently 2.18), one of the key questions is whether this trendline will plateau in the coming weeks - making MVRV momentum an important metric to monitor.

🔗 Explore the charts:
MVRV Pricing Bands
Historical MVRV Levels
MVRV Momentum

Where is Bitcoin Headed After Capital Outflows?

As we highlighted earlier, the movement of capital out of Bitcoin suggests that Market Makers may be searching for new price levels to re-enter the market. Let’s analyze the likely scenarios:

1️⃣ STH Realized Price ($86.2k):
This region is the first target and often acts as support during bull markets. Its recovery typically signals the continuation of bullish momentum.

2️⃣ Hope/Denial Band ($80.7k):
Identified in the STH & LTH Sentiment Price Band metric, this range reflects the sentiment thermometer of short- and long-term investors and has historically sustained bullish trends.

⚠️ Bearish Scenario:
If the market repeats events like the May 2021 dump, Bitcoin could drop to levels between $66k and $60k. These zones align with metrics such as the Active Realized Price and True Market Mean Price, which calculate the blockchain’s ideal average price while excluding newly mined coins.

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