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July 19, 2017 (9 years ago)

Overheard in #bitcoin-wizards: "Leeroy Jenkins!!!!"

Two days before BIP91 locked in, a developer asked why half of Bitcoin's miners looked ready to orphan their own blocks. gmaxwell's answer was a 2005 World of Warcraft meme.…

2/10 - Mid-2017: Bitcoin was two years into the block size war. SegWit was the proposed fix, but activation needed 95% of miner hashpower signaling "bit 1", and miners stalled: partly disagreement, partly (many suspected) because it broke a covert mining…

3/10 - A grassroots UASF movement planned to have nodes reject non-SegWit-signaling blocks on August 1. Miners answered with BIP91, by James Hilliard: if 80% signaled a different bit (bit 4), every block would be REQUIRED to signal SegWit, and any that didn't…

4/10 - At 03:07 UTC on July 19, oleganza pointed at the alarming math: bit 4 was nearly locked in, yet 45% of blocks still weren't signaling SegWit. Were "BIP91-signalling miners... idiots ready to orphan half of their own blocks," or did they "only signal…

5/10 - gmaxwell answered one minute later, in full: "oleganza: leeroy jenkins!!!!"

Another regular, midnightmagic, immediately added: "least i have chicken"

If you were on the internet in 2005 you already get it. If you weren't, the reference deserves a…

6/10 - In May 2005, a World of Warcraft guild called Pals for Life posted a video of a raid group meticulously planning a deadly dungeon room: survival odds calculated, roles assigned. One member, Leeroy Jenkins, misses the whole discussion. He is away making…

7/10 - Leeroy returns, ignores the plan, and charges in alone screaming his own name. The raid follows in panic and everyone dies. Blamed for the wipe, his only defense: "At least I have chicken!" It became the internet's shorthand for reckless action that…

8/10 - The joke lands precisely. Miners signaling bit 4 without bit 1 were charging into enforcement without doing the coordination the plan depended on. And midnightmagic's "least i have chicken" is Leeroy's oblivious excuse after the wipe: their defense…

9/10 - gmaxwell got serious: "fake signaling" meant thresholds could pass on paper while real hashpower hadn't upgraded. He advised running both a BIP91 and a non-BIP91 node, warned of "large funds loss risk," and said "I think it's likely that there will…

10/10 - The raid didn't wipe. BIP91 locked in July 21 at block 477,120 and activated July 22; within a day 88.2% of the network was signaling SegWit. No damaging reorgs. The wider fight raged into August, but miners did what gmaxwell hoped: flipped bit 1…

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#Bitcoin Potential scenario

Push toward the $67K - $73K, followed by a rejection and a pullback to the 50% Fibonacci level, in confluence with the 300-week SMA.

From there, a reversal could begin.

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