Cauê Oliveira
Quer continuar acompanhando materiais como este e entender como o mercado realmente funciona, acessando dados e análises institucionais?
Segue este perfil e compartilha esta thread. Agradeça apertando em RT.👇
https://twitter.com/caueconomy/status/2032483990855201256 https://twitter.com/caueconomy/status/2032483990855201256#m
Quer continuar acompanhando materiais como este e entender como o mercado realmente funciona, acessando dados e análises institucionais?
Segue este perfil e compartilha esta thread. Agradeça apertando em RT.👇
https://twitter.com/caueconomy/status/2032483990855201256 https://twitter.com/caueconomy/status/2032483990855201256#m
apsk32
POWER CURVE + TIME DEVATION IS ALL YOU NEED
Business cycle models, M2 models, liquidity models, gold models, exponential decay models, quantile models.. they all go smoked in October. Analysts are overfitting. They project their models forward 10 years but have to change them every 6 months. "Most accurate," "best," blah blah blah. A model that needs a major revision twice a year is useless.
This baby here didn't need an update. It's robust. It doesn't over-fit. Simple. Elegant. 8 lines of code.
Import the price data, fit to a power function, measure time deviation, end.
Time deviation is physical. Is 600% over trend a lot? I don't know. Maybe? What was it last cycle? "Years ahead" tells you how long it could be before you see another ATH. Is 5 years ahead of the curve a lot? Yes. You could get a bachelors degree, you could meet a girl and get married, your 13-year-old will graduate high school in 5 years. IF YOU TRUST THE CURVE, then time deviation is all you need. Even if you don't know it, you measure risk against your lifespan. This natural tendency stabilizes the metric. "Years ahead" will remain a fairly constant distribution until the power trendline breaks.
POWER CURVE + TIME DEVATION IS ALL YOU NEED
Business cycle models, M2 models, liquidity models, gold models, exponential decay models, quantile models.. they all go smoked in October. Analysts are overfitting. They project their models forward 10 years but have to change them every 6 months. "Most accurate," "best," blah blah blah. A model that needs a major revision twice a year is useless.
This baby here didn't need an update. It's robust. It doesn't over-fit. Simple. Elegant. 8 lines of code.
Import the price data, fit to a power function, measure time deviation, end.
Time deviation is physical. Is 600% over trend a lot? I don't know. Maybe? What was it last cycle? "Years ahead" tells you how long it could be before you see another ATH. Is 5 years ahead of the curve a lot? Yes. You could get a bachelors degree, you could meet a girl and get married, your 13-year-old will graduate high school in 5 years. IF YOU TRUST THE CURVE, then time deviation is all you need. Even if you don't know it, you measure risk against your lifespan. This natural tendency stabilizes the metric. "Years ahead" will remain a fairly constant distribution until the power trendline breaks.
Joao Wedson
⚠️Bitcoin Long-Term Holder MVRV shows a potential opportunity ahead.
An intriguing trendline in the Long-Term Holder MVRV reveals a pattern that has repeated across cycles.
In previous cycles, the bottom levels appeared around:
0.67
0.72
0.78
This shows a consistent incremental increase between cycles.
If the same rhythm continues, the next probable level would be around 0.85.
This suggests that a new opportunity zone could be forming in the market.
I’ve already prepared for it by setting an alert when the indicator drops below 1.2, so I can closely monitor the market if it moves toward this region in the coming months.
If history continues to rhyme as it has in previous cycles, this could become one of the most attractive accumulation zones of the cycle.
You might want to do the same.
⚠️Bitcoin Long-Term Holder MVRV shows a potential opportunity ahead.
An intriguing trendline in the Long-Term Holder MVRV reveals a pattern that has repeated across cycles.
In previous cycles, the bottom levels appeared around:
0.67
0.72
0.78
This shows a consistent incremental increase between cycles.
If the same rhythm continues, the next probable level would be around 0.85.
This suggests that a new opportunity zone could be forming in the market.
I’ve already prepared for it by setting an alert when the indicator drops below 1.2, so I can closely monitor the market if it moves toward this region in the coming months.
If history continues to rhyme as it has in previous cycles, this could become one of the most attractive accumulation zones of the cycle.
You might want to do the same.
Cauê Oliveira
A #autocustódia é extremamente subvalorizada hoje, e entendo que nem todas as pessoas farão.
Mas quem se preocupa com segurança dos seus BTCs, deveria pensar em hardware wallets, multisigs e colaborative custody.
Esse vídeo da dseclabs explica bem isso:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n87YougMukk
A #autocustódia é extremamente subvalorizada hoje, e entendo que nem todas as pessoas farão.
Mas quem se preocupa com segurança dos seus BTCs, deveria pensar em hardware wallets, multisigs e colaborative custody.
Esse vídeo da dseclabs explica bem isso:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n87YougMukk
YouTube
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ADQUIRA AGORA SEU COLD KIT PARA AUTO CUSTÓDIA: https://dseclab.io/br
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Joao Wedson
Short-Term Holder Realized Price Bands is very interesting.
Every time Bitcoin approached the lower blue line, a capitulation event was completed, creating a strong local buying opportunity.
Next time it happens, don’t miss that opportunity.
Short-Term Holder Realized Price Bands is very interesting.
Every time Bitcoin approached the lower blue line, a capitulation event was completed, creating a strong local buying opportunity.
Next time it happens, don’t miss that opportunity.
Cauê Oliveira
Trump afirma que a guerra terminará em breve:
Bitcoin subindo pelo 8º dia consecutivo.
SPX recuperando
Petróleo recua -5.4% abaixo dos $95
Você está com medo-de-ficar-de-fora? https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/2033543508313706686#m
Trump afirma que a guerra terminará em breve:
Bitcoin subindo pelo 8º dia consecutivo.
SPX recuperando
Petróleo recua -5.4% abaixo dos $95
Você está com medo-de-ficar-de-fora? https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/2033543508313706686#m
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The Bitcoin Historian
#JUSTIN: #ELSALVADOR JUST BOUGHT MORE #BITCOIN
THE COUNTRY CONTINUES ITS DAILY BTC ACCUMULATION STRATEGY AND IS NOW HODLING NEARLY 7,600 BTC
#WELCOME! Bitcoin.gob.sv #ProofOfReserves
WHILE YOU PANIC, NATIONS ARE BUYING THE DIP 🚀
#JUSTIN: #ELSALVADOR JUST BOUGHT MORE #BITCOIN
THE COUNTRY CONTINUES ITS DAILY BTC ACCUMULATION STRATEGY AND IS NOW HODLING NEARLY 7,600 BTC
#WELCOME! Bitcoin.gob.sv #ProofOfReserves
WHILE YOU PANIC, NATIONS ARE BUYING THE DIP 🚀
CryptoCon
Long term Bitcoin holders (addresses holding 1 year or more) are finally starting to get more interested in these prices!
Even still, there's a long drop before we reach high long term holder levels, which signals the beginning of the end of the bear market.
Long term Bitcoin holders (addresses holding 1 year or more) are finally starting to get more interested in these prices!
Even still, there's a long drop before we reach high long term holder levels, which signals the beginning of the end of the bear market.
Max Keiser
RT kinetic_finance: last week might have been the moment #ElSalvador became #Dubai 2.0, and nobody is talking about it:
> safest country in the western hemisphere for 4 years in a row
> no middle east war or fallout risk
> 0% tax on all foreign-sourced income
> 0% property tax
> dollarized economy
> bitcoin is legal tender, 0% cap gains tax
> inflation under 1%
> 90-min direct flights to Miami for <$200
> 4-6 hour flights to SFO and NYC for <$400
> world-class surfing
> democratically elected president w/ 85%+ approval rating.
> first country to give open-source AI developers full legal protection
> first country with a sovereign order of NVIDIA's B300 chips
> elonmusk grok AI in 1M+ public school kids' hands
> democratically elected president with a 85%+ approval rating
> world-class surfing
> locally grown coffee, tropical fruit, grass-fed beef - not a supermarket import economy
> huge variety of climates - volcanoes, mountains, lakes, and beaches — 12c in the highlands, 34c on the coast
> strong christian culture and deep sense of faith
> same timezone as US East Coast
> country investing massively in public education
> beautiful colonial architecture across country
RT kinetic_finance: last week might have been the moment #ElSalvador became #Dubai 2.0, and nobody is talking about it:
> safest country in the western hemisphere for 4 years in a row
> no middle east war or fallout risk
> 0% tax on all foreign-sourced income
> 0% property tax
> dollarized economy
> bitcoin is legal tender, 0% cap gains tax
> inflation under 1%
> 90-min direct flights to Miami for <$200
> 4-6 hour flights to SFO and NYC for <$400
> world-class surfing
> democratically elected president w/ 85%+ approval rating.
> first country to give open-source AI developers full legal protection
> first country with a sovereign order of NVIDIA's B300 chips
> elonmusk grok AI in 1M+ public school kids' hands
> democratically elected president with a 85%+ approval rating
> world-class surfing
> locally grown coffee, tropical fruit, grass-fed beef - not a supermarket import economy
> huge variety of climates - volcanoes, mountains, lakes, and beaches — 12c in the highlands, 34c on the coast
> strong christian culture and deep sense of faith
> same timezone as US East Coast
> country investing massively in public education
> beautiful colonial architecture across country
Axel
Bitcoin Price Forecast 2026-2031 is now live.
A 5-year BTC roadmap based on the Power Law model + halving epoch compression.
Bookmark it: https://axeladlerjr.com/bitcoin-price-forecast/
>> ROTA
Bitcoin Price Forecast 2026-2031 is now live.
A 5-year BTC roadmap based on the Power Law model + halving epoch compression.
Bookmark it: https://axeladlerjr.com/bitcoin-price-forecast/
>> ROTA
Joao Wedson
RT Alphractal: Bitcoin: CDD Multiple signals strong long-term holder conviction
CDD Multiple has dropped to its lowest level since 2022.
This means that old BTC is barely moving, indicating that long-term holders are not selling.
In fact, many of them already distributed coins at higher prices, and now the market is mostly circulating younger supply.
What the metric shows
CDD Multiple measures the intensity of Coin Days Destroyed relative to its historical average.
By normalizing current CDD against a long-term baseline, it reveals whether long-term holders are spending coins at unusually high or low rates.
When the metric is low
• Old coins remain dormant
• Long-term holders are holding
• Selling pressure from mature supply is minimal
Historically, these periods often happen during consolidation phases before the next major move.
Data > Narratives.
RT Alphractal: Bitcoin: CDD Multiple signals strong long-term holder conviction
CDD Multiple has dropped to its lowest level since 2022.
This means that old BTC is barely moving, indicating that long-term holders are not selling.
In fact, many of them already distributed coins at higher prices, and now the market is mostly circulating younger supply.
What the metric shows
CDD Multiple measures the intensity of Coin Days Destroyed relative to its historical average.
By normalizing current CDD against a long-term baseline, it reveals whether long-term holders are spending coins at unusually high or low rates.
When the metric is low
• Old coins remain dormant
• Long-term holders are holding
• Selling pressure from mature supply is minimal
Historically, these periods often happen during consolidation phases before the next major move.
Data > Narratives.
Joao Wedson
Mission almost accomplished!
Now some big bears may come out of their caves and try to devour the bulls!
Mission almost accomplished!
Now some big bears may come out of their caves and try to devour the bulls!
$BTC #WeeklyAverage
2026-03-16: $74,205.
200w MA: $58,870
Price / 200w MA: 1.26
P2P | Support's | PRIORITY
2026-03-16: $74,205.
200w MA: $58,870
Price / 200w MA: 1.26
P2P | Support's | PRIORITY
Simon Dixon: Bitcoin OG, Investor, Geo-Political & Financial Analyst:
🇮🇷 🇺🇸 🇷🇺 Iran War Week 2: The Global Reset Continues—And Russia Is Quietly Winning | SimonDixonHardTalk LIVE
🇮🇷 🇺🇸 🇷🇺 Iran War Week 2: The Global Reset Continues—And Russia Is Quietly Winning | SimonDixonHardTalk LIVE