Cauê Oliveira
Outro fator novo entrou na equação: IA.
Parte relevante dos portfólios de private credit está exposta a empresas de software.
O avanço rápido da IA está mudando a dinâmica competitiva de vários desses negócios.
Outro fator novo entrou na equação: IA.
Parte relevante dos portfólios de private credit está exposta a empresas de software.
O avanço rápido da IA está mudando a dinâmica competitiva de vários desses negócios.
Cauê Oliveira
Se o impacto da IA pressionar margens ou tornar certos modelos de negócio obsoletos mais rápido, o risco de default aumenta.
Isso força investidores a reavaliar o valor real de alguns empréstimos. E isso pressiona todo o setor.
Se o impacto da IA pressionar margens ou tornar certos modelos de negócio obsoletos mais rápido, o risco de default aumenta.
Isso força investidores a reavaliar o valor real de alguns empréstimos. E isso pressiona todo o setor.
Cauê Oliveira
O sistema também é altamente interconectado.
Grandes bancos têm cerca de US$300 bilhões em empréstimos para fundos e veículos ligados ao private credit.
Ou seja, mesmo quando o crédito está fora do balanço bancário, ele ainda depende do financiamento dos bancos.
O sistema também é altamente interconectado.
Grandes bancos têm cerca de US$300 bilhões em empréstimos para fundos e veículos ligados ao private credit.
Ou seja, mesmo quando o crédito está fora do balanço bancário, ele ainda depende do financiamento dos bancos.
Cauê Oliveira
Na Europa, o Deutsche Bank revelou cerca de €26 bilhões (~US$30B) de exposição ao setor.
O banco alertou para possíveis riscos indiretos via portfólios interconectados e contrapartes financeiras.
Isso mostra o nível de interligação do sistema.
Na Europa, o Deutsche Bank revelou cerca de €26 bilhões (~US$30B) de exposição ao setor.
O banco alertou para possíveis riscos indiretos via portfólios interconectados e contrapartes financeiras.
Isso mostra o nível de interligação do sistema.
Cauê Oliveira
O ponto central é liquidez.
Private credit virou uma peça importante da criação de crédito global na última década.
Se esse mercado desacelerar ou contrair, a disponibilidade de financiamento para empresas também diminui.
(isso impacta BITCOIN E CRIPTO)
O ponto central é liquidez.
Private credit virou uma peça importante da criação de crédito global na última década.
Se esse mercado desacelerar ou contrair, a disponibilidade de financiamento para empresas também diminui.
(isso impacta BITCOIN E CRIPTO)
Cauê Oliveira
Menos crédito disponível significa:
- menos alavancagem
- menos investimento
- condições financeiras mais apertadas
Por isso reguladores e grandes bancos estão monitorando de perto o setor.
Por isso também que liquidez global já esteve contraindo nos últimos meses.
Menos crédito disponível significa:
- menos alavancagem
- menos investimento
- condições financeiras mais apertadas
Por isso reguladores e grandes bancos estão monitorando de perto o setor.
Por isso também que liquidez global já esteve contraindo nos últimos meses.
Cauê Oliveira
Ainda não existe um evento sistêmico.
Mas os sinais começam a aparecer ao mesmo tempo. Se estes sintomas revelarem uma doença mais grave, o efeito nos mercados será de alta volatilidade.
E muita gente vai aproveitar para acumular ativos escassos no caos.
Sugiro fazer o mesmo.
Ainda não existe um evento sistêmico.
Mas os sinais começam a aparecer ao mesmo tempo. Se estes sintomas revelarem uma doença mais grave, o efeito nos mercados será de alta volatilidade.
E muita gente vai aproveitar para acumular ativos escassos no caos.
Sugiro fazer o mesmo.
Cauê Oliveira
Quer continuar acompanhando materiais como este e entender como o mercado realmente funciona, acessando dados e análises institucionais?
Segue este perfil e compartilha esta thread. Agradeça apertando em RT.👇
https://twitter.com/caueconomy/status/2032483990855201256 https://twitter.com/caueconomy/status/2032483990855201256#m
Quer continuar acompanhando materiais como este e entender como o mercado realmente funciona, acessando dados e análises institucionais?
Segue este perfil e compartilha esta thread. Agradeça apertando em RT.👇
https://twitter.com/caueconomy/status/2032483990855201256 https://twitter.com/caueconomy/status/2032483990855201256#m
apsk32
POWER CURVE + TIME DEVATION IS ALL YOU NEED
Business cycle models, M2 models, liquidity models, gold models, exponential decay models, quantile models.. they all go smoked in October. Analysts are overfitting. They project their models forward 10 years but have to change them every 6 months. "Most accurate," "best," blah blah blah. A model that needs a major revision twice a year is useless.
This baby here didn't need an update. It's robust. It doesn't over-fit. Simple. Elegant. 8 lines of code.
Import the price data, fit to a power function, measure time deviation, end.
Time deviation is physical. Is 600% over trend a lot? I don't know. Maybe? What was it last cycle? "Years ahead" tells you how long it could be before you see another ATH. Is 5 years ahead of the curve a lot? Yes. You could get a bachelors degree, you could meet a girl and get married, your 13-year-old will graduate high school in 5 years. IF YOU TRUST THE CURVE, then time deviation is all you need. Even if you don't know it, you measure risk against your lifespan. This natural tendency stabilizes the metric. "Years ahead" will remain a fairly constant distribution until the power trendline breaks.
POWER CURVE + TIME DEVATION IS ALL YOU NEED
Business cycle models, M2 models, liquidity models, gold models, exponential decay models, quantile models.. they all go smoked in October. Analysts are overfitting. They project their models forward 10 years but have to change them every 6 months. "Most accurate," "best," blah blah blah. A model that needs a major revision twice a year is useless.
This baby here didn't need an update. It's robust. It doesn't over-fit. Simple. Elegant. 8 lines of code.
Import the price data, fit to a power function, measure time deviation, end.
Time deviation is physical. Is 600% over trend a lot? I don't know. Maybe? What was it last cycle? "Years ahead" tells you how long it could be before you see another ATH. Is 5 years ahead of the curve a lot? Yes. You could get a bachelors degree, you could meet a girl and get married, your 13-year-old will graduate high school in 5 years. IF YOU TRUST THE CURVE, then time deviation is all you need. Even if you don't know it, you measure risk against your lifespan. This natural tendency stabilizes the metric. "Years ahead" will remain a fairly constant distribution until the power trendline breaks.
Joao Wedson
⚠️Bitcoin Long-Term Holder MVRV shows a potential opportunity ahead.
An intriguing trendline in the Long-Term Holder MVRV reveals a pattern that has repeated across cycles.
In previous cycles, the bottom levels appeared around:
0.67
0.72
0.78
This shows a consistent incremental increase between cycles.
If the same rhythm continues, the next probable level would be around 0.85.
This suggests that a new opportunity zone could be forming in the market.
I’ve already prepared for it by setting an alert when the indicator drops below 1.2, so I can closely monitor the market if it moves toward this region in the coming months.
If history continues to rhyme as it has in previous cycles, this could become one of the most attractive accumulation zones of the cycle.
You might want to do the same.
⚠️Bitcoin Long-Term Holder MVRV shows a potential opportunity ahead.
An intriguing trendline in the Long-Term Holder MVRV reveals a pattern that has repeated across cycles.
In previous cycles, the bottom levels appeared around:
0.67
0.72
0.78
This shows a consistent incremental increase between cycles.
If the same rhythm continues, the next probable level would be around 0.85.
This suggests that a new opportunity zone could be forming in the market.
I’ve already prepared for it by setting an alert when the indicator drops below 1.2, so I can closely monitor the market if it moves toward this region in the coming months.
If history continues to rhyme as it has in previous cycles, this could become one of the most attractive accumulation zones of the cycle.
You might want to do the same.
Cauê Oliveira
A #autocustódia é extremamente subvalorizada hoje, e entendo que nem todas as pessoas farão.
Mas quem se preocupa com segurança dos seus BTCs, deveria pensar em hardware wallets, multisigs e colaborative custody.
Esse vídeo da dseclabs explica bem isso:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n87YougMukk
A #autocustódia é extremamente subvalorizada hoje, e entendo que nem todas as pessoas farão.
Mas quem se preocupa com segurança dos seus BTCs, deveria pensar em hardware wallets, multisigs e colaborative custody.
Esse vídeo da dseclabs explica bem isso:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n87YougMukk
YouTube
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ADQUIRA AGORA SEU COLD KIT PARA AUTO CUSTÓDIA: https://dseclab.io/br
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Joao Wedson
Short-Term Holder Realized Price Bands is very interesting.
Every time Bitcoin approached the lower blue line, a capitulation event was completed, creating a strong local buying opportunity.
Next time it happens, don’t miss that opportunity.
Short-Term Holder Realized Price Bands is very interesting.
Every time Bitcoin approached the lower blue line, a capitulation event was completed, creating a strong local buying opportunity.
Next time it happens, don’t miss that opportunity.
Cauê Oliveira
Trump afirma que a guerra terminará em breve:
Bitcoin subindo pelo 8º dia consecutivo.
SPX recuperando
Petróleo recua -5.4% abaixo dos $95
Você está com medo-de-ficar-de-fora? https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/2033543508313706686#m
Trump afirma que a guerra terminará em breve:
Bitcoin subindo pelo 8º dia consecutivo.
SPX recuperando
Petróleo recua -5.4% abaixo dos $95
Você está com medo-de-ficar-de-fora? https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/2033543508313706686#m
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The Bitcoin Historian
#JUSTIN: #ELSALVADOR JUST BOUGHT MORE #BITCOIN
THE COUNTRY CONTINUES ITS DAILY BTC ACCUMULATION STRATEGY AND IS NOW HODLING NEARLY 7,600 BTC
#WELCOME! Bitcoin.gob.sv #ProofOfReserves
WHILE YOU PANIC, NATIONS ARE BUYING THE DIP 🚀
#JUSTIN: #ELSALVADOR JUST BOUGHT MORE #BITCOIN
THE COUNTRY CONTINUES ITS DAILY BTC ACCUMULATION STRATEGY AND IS NOW HODLING NEARLY 7,600 BTC
#WELCOME! Bitcoin.gob.sv #ProofOfReserves
WHILE YOU PANIC, NATIONS ARE BUYING THE DIP 🚀
CryptoCon
Long term Bitcoin holders (addresses holding 1 year or more) are finally starting to get more interested in these prices!
Even still, there's a long drop before we reach high long term holder levels, which signals the beginning of the end of the bear market.
Long term Bitcoin holders (addresses holding 1 year or more) are finally starting to get more interested in these prices!
Even still, there's a long drop before we reach high long term holder levels, which signals the beginning of the end of the bear market.
Max Keiser
RT kinetic_finance: last week might have been the moment #ElSalvador became #Dubai 2.0, and nobody is talking about it:
> safest country in the western hemisphere for 4 years in a row
> no middle east war or fallout risk
> 0% tax on all foreign-sourced income
> 0% property tax
> dollarized economy
> bitcoin is legal tender, 0% cap gains tax
> inflation under 1%
> 90-min direct flights to Miami for <$200
> 4-6 hour flights to SFO and NYC for <$400
> world-class surfing
> democratically elected president w/ 85%+ approval rating.
> first country to give open-source AI developers full legal protection
> first country with a sovereign order of NVIDIA's B300 chips
> elonmusk grok AI in 1M+ public school kids' hands
> democratically elected president with a 85%+ approval rating
> world-class surfing
> locally grown coffee, tropical fruit, grass-fed beef - not a supermarket import economy
> huge variety of climates - volcanoes, mountains, lakes, and beaches — 12c in the highlands, 34c on the coast
> strong christian culture and deep sense of faith
> same timezone as US East Coast
> country investing massively in public education
> beautiful colonial architecture across country
RT kinetic_finance: last week might have been the moment #ElSalvador became #Dubai 2.0, and nobody is talking about it:
> safest country in the western hemisphere for 4 years in a row
> no middle east war or fallout risk
> 0% tax on all foreign-sourced income
> 0% property tax
> dollarized economy
> bitcoin is legal tender, 0% cap gains tax
> inflation under 1%
> 90-min direct flights to Miami for <$200
> 4-6 hour flights to SFO and NYC for <$400
> world-class surfing
> democratically elected president w/ 85%+ approval rating.
> first country to give open-source AI developers full legal protection
> first country with a sovereign order of NVIDIA's B300 chips
> elonmusk grok AI in 1M+ public school kids' hands
> democratically elected president with a 85%+ approval rating
> world-class surfing
> locally grown coffee, tropical fruit, grass-fed beef - not a supermarket import economy
> huge variety of climates - volcanoes, mountains, lakes, and beaches — 12c in the highlands, 34c on the coast
> strong christian culture and deep sense of faith
> same timezone as US East Coast
> country investing massively in public education
> beautiful colonial architecture across country