Bitcoin started 2026 near $87,500 as traders pointed to compressed Bollinger Bands and low RSI as signs of a volatility breakout, while some argued the four-year cycle is breaking down.

CryptoQuant research head Julio Moreno says bitcoin slipped into a bear market in early November after falling below its one-year moving average, with a potential 2026 bottom near $56,000–$60,000 based on realized price history.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose to 29 on Friday, exiting “extreme fear” even as bitcoin traded below $90,000 and analysts described investor mood as cautious.

Understand The 80% Rule and how it impacts home mining safety and equipment longevity in your Bitcoin operations.