Tsegaye R Ararssa

In addition to the aggression by the Somali Liyyu Hayl (which was exacerbated since in Boranaa and Gujii Zones, in Cinaaksan, and, most recently, in Dirree Dhawaa), there has been an attack from the Benishangul-Gumuz region in the West and from Afar on the Kamisee Oromo of Walloo in the ANRS in the North. There are countless episodes of spontaneous acts of violence in Oromia towns such as Assallaa and Gobbaa.

More importantly, there seems to be a reluctance to broaden the political space, particularly in Oromia. This is seen in the recalcitrance to make peace with the Oromo Liberation Front (which they refer to as ‘Shanee Group’) in the region and in what is increasingly becoming an overt act, on the part of the OPDO, to push OLF out of the transition process.

The altercation over disarming and demobilizing the soldiers of Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) seems to be a mere pretext for forcing political exclusion. OPDO’s creation of a pseudo “state of war” in Western Oromia in the name of securing peace and order and enforcing of a de facto state of emergency seems to be a mere pretext for eliminating and excluding the OLF from the transition process.

The mobilization and massive deployment of the Federal Military forces in localities that are perceived to be the strongholds of OLF/A and the mass arrest (and occasional arbitrary killings) of civilians for supporting the OLF (such as through waving the Oromo resistance flag on one’s Bajaj, or through providing or selling food to persons suspected of being members of the local OLF regiment, etc), apart from creating bitter regional rifts within the Oromo polity, indicated to some that the regime is not interested in relinquishing even local powers to a potential contending party.

The attempt to co-opt the Oromo youth (aka Qeerroo) into OPDO’s ranks by enrolling them massively as members, or by offering them government jobs and benefits, while putting pressures on those who do not support OPDO (as in Jimma Zone, for example) reinforces the view that the OPDO’s interest is more to stay in power (by hook or crook) than to democratize the system in which all parties take part in the election uninhibited.

Its massive deployment of military force (as opposed to police force) in order to solve what is an essentially political discord also signals OPDO's unwillingness to demilitarize the politics yet.

The above examples of dashed hopes, including the hope of ‘transformation from within,’ unmet popular demands, unaddressed humanitarian conditions, further unfolding humanitarian crises (of evictions, displacements, border wars, forest fires, etc), the reluctance to be inclusive of political forces that potentially pause a threat to the regime come Election 2020, make people suspect—or tentatively conclude—that the transition is derailed.

The creation of new issues through, for instance, rethinking the federal arrangement in such a way that it hedges down the rights of States and national groups, the establishment of seemingly extra-and/or un-constitutional institutions to bring back the old order of imperial hierarchy among groups in the empire (if only to accommodate one group’s desire to become, or remain, superior to other groups) seems to further exaggerate the suspicion/conclusion that perhaps the transition is hijacked altogether and is being put to use for the regime’s self-preservation and preservation of OPDO-EPRDF from the existential threat once paused to it by the Oromo Revolution.
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[TO BE CONTINUED!]
(Regrettably, footnotes are omitted owing to facebook's set up.)

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