Warning of potential volatility

Scheduled events
for the most widely-traded currencies, that may also affect indices and commodities. Times are GMT+2.


Tuesday, 3 November
All Day: USD – Presidential Election
05:30: AUD – Cash Rate
09:30: CHF – CPI

Wednesday, 4 November
15:15: USD – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
15:30: CAD – Trade Balance
15:30: USD – Trade Balance

Thursday, 5 November
14:00: GBP – Official Bank Rate
21:00: USD – FOMC Statement
21:00: USD – Federal Funds Rate

Friday, 6 November
15:30: CAD – Employment Change
15:30: CAD – Unemployment Rate
15:30: USD – Non-Farm Employment Change
15:30: USD – Unemployment Rate

All times are GMT+2

This is a very important week for not just the USA but for the rest of the world too.
its going to be a wildly volatile week, but regardless of the outcome (my bet is trump winning re-election) both candidates have already said they plan on passing the next stimulus package asap. so we can expect more pumping of USD into market weakening the currency and pushing commodities like gold and cryptos higher.

I've been putting everything on pause waiting for the election to pass and once the dust settles I'm going to resume issuing trading signals via the bot (@linorth_bot) and posting analysis both here on this channel and on Instagram account of my website (@TradingWithLinorth)

According to a Nov. 2 announcement from The Reserve Bank of Australia, or RBA, the financial institution will be partnering with the Commonwealth Bank, National Australia Bank, the financial services company Perpetual, and software company ConsenSys on a project to explore the potential use of a wholesale central bank digital currency in the country using “Ethereum-based distributed ledger technology."

JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley banks have both warned that if early results of election lean more towards the democratic candidate, the stock market is likely to experience a significant crash.

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this election's final result may be delayed a bit more than previous election, due to huge amount of mail in voting which takes time to be counted completely. but as more and more voting data comes in, the market is going to fluctuate widely. its best to stay out and watch but if you decided to go in, dont forget to use proper stoploss for your trades.

Financial markets are likely to wait another 6 hours for the first confirmed results and all eyes are on Florida as per usual.

The mail in ballots havent all arrived in time and since dems believe their party has had the most participation in mail-in voting, its very likely for the drama to continue for at least another 3 days.

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this is the closest we can get to having a super bowl like event in the world of trading 😂 its just a lot more nerve racking 😂

Biden now has taken the lead in Georgia and is very close to winning the election.
however, no matter who becomes the president, he is going to have the toughest job ever, uniting a nation that has never been this divided.

As far as the market is concerned, speculators had an easy job so far betting against the dollar as the next stimulus package is almost guaranteed at this point.
Biden winning might send the stock market into a strong dive due to his tax plans so we initially might see demand for USD raising (maybe even a small fall in gold as profit taking happens for buying in the dips) but in a mid term view, we can expect more inflation and an overall rise in price of commodities like gold beyond their recent historic highs.

the only thing Im worried about now is Biden winning and Trump refusing to accept the results and even maybe inciting violence. that could rise the uncertainty in the market again and push investors into repeating the same behaviour as the beginning days of tradewar.


eitherway Im tired of waiting around because of this seemingly never ending chaos and from next week will get into doing some scalping and small swings on lower time frames.
will try my best post a video review of the charts during the weekend to put here as well.

Bundesbank says German GDP could stagnate or shrink in 4Q after virus flare-up. Consensus GDP forecasts for Q4 have collapsed to 0%

NY FED Q4 GDP forecasts has also been dropping.


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more QE is very likely to be on the way.

#Gold ETF holdings dropped another 322k oz yesterday, thereby taking the post-vaccine announcements drop to 1.7m oz. due to loss of momentum we might see gold trading lower short term, but I see no reason to alter my overall bullish long term view based on USD yields and inflation.

I have added to my long position today and I have my PRZ area at 1750-1771 price area and will add more to my longs if price reaches there.

#Gold was bought after the vaccine news failed to force it below key support at $1850/oz. The net long rose 10% to 122k after hitting a 17 mth low the previous week. #Platinum bulls responded to the 5% price jump by lifting the net long to 6k lots

Signal Type: New Order
Order Type: Market Buy
Instrument: #XAUUSD
TimeFrame: H24
Entry Price: 1771.17
TP1: 1848.17
TP2: 1925.17
SL: 1694.17
#Explanation: unfortunately it hit our stop in the previous long trade, but it reached the PRZ area (big blue box) and here I suspect it is likely to range a bit maybe try to touch 1717 price but I don't think it can continue to fall below the PRZ and it will build the potential here for a change in the trend and we will see another bull run starting from this area.

This is the gold signal I had shared with members of my signal service bot (@Linorth_bot)


with all the talks on next stimulus package and expectations of higher inflation, we can expect more weakness in USD in the next couple of months while more money will move towards commodities like gold (and even BTC)

oil has been also gaining on the hopes of a recovery after vaccine distribution.

#SPY (S&P500 index)

this one is my prediction for the upcoming correction on S&P500 index using my PRZ analysis.

I didn't share this on my signal service as a signal because depending on where you are trading in, the swaps on indexes can be wild. so if you decided to trade CFDs and indexes make sure you are aware of how much swap or rollover fee you are going to pay on your position.

Wow.
M1 money supply just exploded higher even further.
The biggest monthly jump yet.
The Fed is operating without checks or balances.

US M1 money supply has increased by 55% since February.
35% of all US dollars in existence have been printed in 10 months!

All this printing is not going to the people.
It's going to the rich.
Fact.

#Gold

I expected it to retest the PRZ area before continuing the uptrend. but it made a quick jump!

not really surprising, considering the record amount of dollars getting printed and the inflationary effect pushing BTC and Gold higher.

medium term I see $2500/oz easily reachable.

my prediction for #BTC price movement. (long term)

I shared this on tradingview a few days ago and forgot to share it here.
but I wonder how many of you saw it there or on my twitter and got on the short side of it? probably no one 😅
but alas, here it is.


Im also cooking up some stuff which will get announced very soon on this channel. Im going nuclear for 2021 with the main goal of moving back towards doing more free stuff now that everytime I have tried to monetize my work my accounts got blocked due to sanctions 😂 MQL5.com closed my signal service account last month so I have been working with a friend of mine in Bahrain to move things under a new brand which has no connection to me, starting with my educational course which I think will drop sometime later this month (as if its an album! lol) I will share more info about that soon.


thanks for those of you who still havent left this channel, I will definitely include a little gift coupon for members once my course is up.

I had written this answer on Sunday in Quora on bitcoin after updating the analysis on tradingview:
https://www.quora.com/Will-Bitcoin-crash-again-in-late-2020-and-early-2021/answer/Bahman-RasoulPour-Linorth



tl;dr: since price moved directly to second PRZ area, the hammering of price will continue to a bit below $10K price range.

Im also long on gold again.
had carved about %18 off of it on the previous climb.. now its close to PRZ area at 1720-1800 range.
I expect it to climb as BTC corrects (money moving from BTC -and maybe stocks- towards Gold and safe haven currencies like JPY and CHF)


Dollar is still structurally weak, despite the heavy short position piling up, any corrections would be temporary and downtrend will resume.