Five things traders need to know today

📉 Nasdaq continued the correction on Tuesday amid rising US Treasury yields after Powell’s re-nomination. S&P 500 and Dow eked out small gains with energy and financial sectors leading the move. Zoom -14.71% after it warned about revenue slowdown. European and Asian indices closed mixed.

🌟 Gold extended the decline to $1,788.95, breaking below the 200-day SMA. WTI crude (SpotCrude) climbed to $79.36 despite Biden’s decision to release 50 million barrels of Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Bitcoin recovered to $57,667.

💲 The US dollar index (USDX) was little changed at 96.40, while the yield on 10-year Treasury moved higher to 1.67%. A bunch of key economic data is scheduled for release today ahead of Thanksgiving. USDJPY jumped above 115 for the first time since March 2017.

🇪🇺 EUR was slightly higher at 1.1248 helped by the upbeat PMI data across EU nations. Policy divergence and rising cases still weighed on the single currency. GBP fell for a third day to 1.3378, hitting the 11-month low in the session.

🥝 NZD was unchanged at 0.6949 ahead of the RBNZ policy announcement today. While a 25bp rate hike is fully priced, there is a 33% chance of a 50bp. AUD edged lower at 0.7226. CAD and NOK ended the day higher.

What is SANTA CLAUS RALLY? 🎄🎅🤔

A Santa Claus rally is a calendar effect that involves a rise in stock prices during the last 5 trading days in December and the first 2 trading days in the following January.

According to the 2019 Stock Trader's Almanac, the stock market has 💹 risen 1.3% on average during the 7 trading days in question since both 1950 and 1969. Over the 7 trading days in question, stock prices have historically risen 76% of the time, which is far more than the average performance over a 7-day period.

However, in the weeks prior to Christmas, stock prices have not gone up more than at other times of the year.

The Santa Claus rally was first recorded by Yale Hirsch in his Stock Trader's Almanac in 1972.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has performed better in years following holiday seasons in which the Santa Claus rally does not materialize.

Thanks to our wiki friend! AHA!💡🎉

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Five things traders need to know today

🏖️ Futures on US equity indexes moved higher on Thursday, while the cash markets closed for Thanksgiving holiday. Major European and Asian indices closed in positive territory. China’s CSI 300 -0.41% and Australia’s ASX200 -0.26%.

↕️ Gold was unchanged at $1,788.20, having traded within a less than $10 range in the session. WTI crude (SpotCrude) was slightly lower at $78.84 while Brent (SpotBrent) fell below $82. Bitcoin was up to $58,815.

💲 The FX market had a quiet session, with most major currencies +/- 0.2%. The US dollar index (USDX) eased back to 96.68 but is on track to the fifth consecutive weekly gain. USDJPY dipped to 115.32.

😀 EUR held above 1.12 overnight. ECB minutes stressed that inflation pressure is transitory, making itself one of the most dovish central banks. GBP ended a five-day losing streak helped by BOE’s governor Bailey, who suggested higher rates in response to higher inflation.

🔻 AUD extended the decline to 0.7187 ahead of Aussie October retail sales. NZD dropped to 0.6854, the lowest level in two months. USDCAD was lower at 1.2645.

Hello

Five things traders need to know today

😷 US stocks ended Black Friday and Thanksgiving week around 2% lower on worries of Omicron, a new variant that was first detected in South Africa. European indices took a heavy hit after some EU nations confirmed the cases. Nikkei -3.34% and Australia’s ASX200 -2.46% for the week, while China’s benchmark closed higher.

⏬ WTI crude (SpotCrude) plunged more than 10% last week to $68.87 on Omicron uncertainty, breaking below the 200-day SMA. Brent (SpotBrent) -7.92%. OPEC+ is set to announce its production plan this Thursday. Gold fell for a second week to $1,791.40. Bitcoin traded around $56,000.

💵 The US dollar index (USDX) ended the week unchanged at 95.99 after giving up all the gains on Friday. The yield on 10-year Treasury fell below 1.50% as the expectation of rate hikes fades. Safe-haven JPY and CHF outperformed on the week.

🇪🇺 EUR rebounded from its 17-month low to 1.1313 as the dollar rally eased, correcting the oversold condition on the daily chart. The EU was experiencing a fourth wave of Covid even before the Omicron. GBP closed at 1.3333 near the yearly low.

🌏 Commodity currencies suffered most amid the risk-aversion mood. NZD(-2.63%), NOK(-1.82%), AUD(-1.65%) and CAD (-1.12%) led the decline last week. ZAR (South Africa currency) hit a one-year low against the dollar.

Five things traders need to know today

🙂 US stocks rebounded from Friday’s selloff as worries about the new Omicron Covid-19 variant eased. All 11 sub-sectors under S&P 500 were in red, with tech (+2.64%) leading the gains. Major European indices closed in positive territories.

↕️ Gold continued to struggle under $,1790 and Silver broke below $23. WTI crude (SpotCrude) climbed above $70 as OPEC+ is expected not to increase the output in near future. Bitcoin rose to $58,273.

💰 The US dollar index (USDX) regained 96 as the yield on 10-year Treasury closed above 1.50%. Markets have repriced the 2022 rate hike expectation amid Omicron uncertainty. Safe-haven JPY weakened against the greenback.

💶 EUR ended the day slightly lower at 1.1291 despite Germany November CPI beating estimates with 6%. Eurozone CPI is scheduled for release today. GBP dipped to 1.3314 near one-year low.

🌏 AUD (+0.37%) recovered from three-month low to 0.7141 as the market sentiment turned positive. NZD (+0.18%) ended higher at 0.6823, snapping a six-day losing streak. USDCAD eased to 1.2737.

*MODERNA CEO PREDICTS VACCINES TO STRUGGLE WITH OMICRON: FT risk getting hit on this

Dollar seeing gains on Powell commentary:

Fed’s Powell : Time To Retire The Word Transitory Regarding Inflation

Fed’s Powell : Test For Inflation Has Clearly Been Met

Three themes for the open

- Fed changes tune
- Vaccine effectiveness
- Risk off

https://www.ausbiz.com.au/media/three-themes-for-the-open-fed-changes-tune-risk-off-and-vaccine-effectiveness?videoId=17596

Five thing traders need to know today

😟 Global major stocks ended the last trading day of November sharply lower as FED chair Powell changed the tone of inflation and signalled a faster taper in December. S&P 500 -1.90% on the day and -0.83% for the month, with VIX jumping 67% in November. Omicron uncertainty also weighed on the sentiment. Apple +3.16% and Tesla +0.68%.

🔻 Gold fell to one-month low of $1,774.78 after Powell’s testimony. WTI crude (SpotCrude) tumbled 4.49% to $67.45 on worries of travel demand impacted by the new Covid variant, with Moderna questioning the vaccine efficacy. NatGas -5.6%. Bitcoin was lower at $57,142.

💲 The US dollar index (USDX) dropped to 95.81 on the weak economic data, while the yield on two-year Treasury surged to 0.57% (+17.01%). ADP and ISM PMI data is on radar today. Safe-haven JPY and CHF became the outperformers overnight.

🇪🇺 EUR extended the recovery to 1.1339 helped by stronger-than-expected Eurozone CPI number, despite more EU nations re-imposing Covid restrictions. GBP edged lower to 1.3301, having hit a fresh 11-month low in the session.

🙃 AUD ended the day lower at 0.7128. Aussie Q3 GDP is scheduled for release today. NZD was little changed at 0.6823. CAD was hit hard by lower crude prices and confirmed Omicron cases in Canada.

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Nice graphic from Wells Fargo on potential scenarios of omicron and the implications for different markets

Five things traders need to know today

😷 US stocks suffered the biggest two-day decline since October 2020 after reporting its first Omicron cases, with VIX soaring to the highest since February. Strong ADP employment and ISM manufacturing PMI data failed to boost the market sentiment. Major European and Asian indices closed higher on Wednesday.

🛢️ WTI crude fell to a three-month low of $66.19 on the uncertainty of the new Covid variant. OPEC+ is set to announce its production plan today. NatGas -7.32%. Gold edged higher to $1,781.76 and Bitcoin was down to $57,012.

🤑 The US dollar index (USDX) was higher at 95.95 with the yield curve further flattening. Safe-Haven JPY was the best-performing G10 currency overnight, closing near a two-month high against greenback.

↕️ EUR ended lower at 1.1319, sitting just below the 20-day SMA. The EU unemployment rate is due out today. GBP dropped for a third consecutive day to 1.3272, the lowest close price in one year.

🔻 AUD continued the downward trend to 0.7104 amid the risk-off mood, despite Australia’s better-than-expected GDP in Q3. NZD pushed lower to 0.6806, down for eight of the last nine sessions. USDCAD climbed to the highest level since September.

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