Trading Crypto Compass
#BTC still maintaining the bearish structure flow, holding below the resistance, but looking into Daily TF, we have a huge rejection wick. The decision is tough and next week might lead a lower push, but additional confirmations are needed.
#BTC gave its weekly closing kinda Doji Candlestick, and LTF trying to gain some momentum to have strong bullish bias but need to see HTF candle closing as its kinda off sideways and very indecisive market.
Strategy Acquired another pile of #BTC with $1.05B totalling 592,100 Bitcoins in holdings
With activity rising on centralized exchanges, it becomes increasingly important to examine the derivatives landscape as well, offering insight into the build up of leverage which often accompanies bullish environments.
Open interest for futures contracts has seen marked growth since the $74k local low in April, expanding from $36.8B, to a current value of $55.6B. This reflects a +$19B increase (+51%) over the last 49 days alone, suggesting a build up of leverage is underway.
Open interest for futures contracts has seen marked growth since the $74k local low in April, expanding from $36.8B, to a current value of $55.6B. This reflects a +$19B increase (+51%) over the last 49 days alone, suggesting a build up of leverage is underway.
#Educational Post
What is #CPI ?
A Consumer Price Index (or CPI) is a type of index: a basket of assets whose price is tracked to gain insights into market segments. Examples of indices include the S&P 500, the NASDAQ Composite, and the DJIA (all of which measure the performance of the major stocks).
There’s no single CPI – the term refers to any type of index designed to track the prices of consumer goods, services, and household products. Suppose that we have a basket made up of the following expenses: groceries, hygiene products, travel costs, rent, etc. Basically, we can do this with anything you’d expect the average consumer to spend on.
We’ll note down the total cost of the items in that basket, typically using weighted averages to give more “weight” to more important items. Then we’ll note the year/month/period, too. By doing this at set intervals, we can get an idea of how the index is performing over time.
Why is CPI used?
A Consumer Price Index is a powerful benchmark for measuring developments in the economy. Specifically, it’s used to monitor the impact of inflation or deflation. This is useful for many reasons – governments can gain insights into their monetary policy decisions and calculate how much should be given to those with subsidized incomes.
What is #CPI ?
A Consumer Price Index (or CPI) is a type of index: a basket of assets whose price is tracked to gain insights into market segments. Examples of indices include the S&P 500, the NASDAQ Composite, and the DJIA (all of which measure the performance of the major stocks).
There’s no single CPI – the term refers to any type of index designed to track the prices of consumer goods, services, and household products. Suppose that we have a basket made up of the following expenses: groceries, hygiene products, travel costs, rent, etc. Basically, we can do this with anything you’d expect the average consumer to spend on.
We’ll note down the total cost of the items in that basket, typically using weighted averages to give more “weight” to more important items. Then we’ll note the year/month/period, too. By doing this at set intervals, we can get an idea of how the index is performing over time.
Why is CPI used?
A Consumer Price Index is a powerful benchmark for measuring developments in the economy. Specifically, it’s used to monitor the impact of inflation or deflation. This is useful for many reasons – governments can gain insights into their monetary policy decisions and calculate how much should be given to those with subsidized incomes.
Trading Crypto Compass
#BTC gave its weekly closing kinda Doji Candlestick, and LTF trying to gain some momentum to have strong bullish bias but need to see HTF candle closing as its kinda off sideways and very indecisive market.
#BTC had a flip of the resistance in LTF abut HTF has a rejection wick. Price barely moved any side and now we need to see some sort of directional move either side, to anticipate the further market direction.
Options open interest has surged from $20.4B to $46.2B—a new all-time high. This +$25.8B increase exceeds futures market growth, reflecting a maturing investor base increasingly using sophisticated options strategies for enhanced risk management and trading positions.RetryClaude can make mistakes. Please double-check responses.
Trading Crypto Compass
#BTC had a flip of the resistance in LTF abut HTF has a rejection wick. Price barely moved any side and now we need to see some sort of directional move either side, to anticipate the further market direction.
#BTC dropped again below the support, with that the HTF closed bit bearish now. If we look long then its a consolidation, and due to fundamental event happening globally, its very unclear to the market direction. Wait for the further price action to develop.
Spot ETFs have shown sustained buy-side pressure since late April, with inflows exceeding $300M/day over the past week. This large, consistent demand from retail and institutional investors demonstrates continued confidence in Bitcoin and has provided meaningful support for all ATH breaks since the ETFs launched in 2024.
#Educational Post
What is Crypto Protocol ?
A crypto protocol outlines rules and procedures governing behavior within a decentralized network secured by cryptography. These protocols are transparent, open-source, and designed to avoid centralized control. Participants validate transactions and maintain consensus.
Protocols extend beyond cryptocurrencies, found in various systems. For instance, the Internet uses HTTP and HTTPS protocols for websites. Similarly, crypto protocols enable trustless transactions, using cryptography for security.
Consider Bitcoin: a notable crypto protocol allowing direct, intermediary-free transactions. Its Proof of Work (PoW) consensus relies on participants solving complex puzzles to validate transactions.
Crypto protocols underpin the emerging DeFi field, aiming to create decentralized financial systems rivaling traditional finance.
What is Crypto Protocol ?
A crypto protocol outlines rules and procedures governing behavior within a decentralized network secured by cryptography. These protocols are transparent, open-source, and designed to avoid centralized control. Participants validate transactions and maintain consensus.
Protocols extend beyond cryptocurrencies, found in various systems. For instance, the Internet uses HTTP and HTTPS protocols for websites. Similarly, crypto protocols enable trustless transactions, using cryptography for security.
Consider Bitcoin: a notable crypto protocol allowing direct, intermediary-free transactions. Its Proof of Work (PoW) consensus relies on participants solving complex puzzles to validate transactions.
Crypto protocols underpin the emerging DeFi field, aiming to create decentralized financial systems rivaling traditional finance.
If we look #BTC in WEEKLY TF then its in a strong consolidation range. Wick rejecting both sides and moving sideways. Both Resistance and support standing strong and a HTF breakout is the key to identify the potential breakout.
With Bitcoin in price discovery, technical and on-chain indicators help evaluate momentum and potential overheating. Key levels include the 111DMA ($91.8k), 200DMA ($94.3k), and Short-Term Holder cost-basis ($95.9k)—which historically delineates bull/bear regimes.
Price trades well above all three levels, confirming rally strength since April. Their close alignment creates strong confluence around a critical support zone that must hold to sustain further upside momentum.
Price trades well above all three levels, confirming rally strength since April. Their close alignment creates strong confluence around a critical support zone that must hold to sustain further upside momentum.
#Educational Post
What is Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) ?
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is a U.S. government agency established with the primary purpose of regulating and overseeing the operations of commodity futures and options markets. These markets deal with various commodities, which include agricultural products like wheat, corn, and livestock, energy resources like oil and natural gas, metals like gold and silver, and financial instruments like stock market indices.
The CFTC was created in 1974 with the passage of the Commodity Exchange Act, a law designed to bring transparency, fairness, and stability to the commodities trading industry. Its main responsibilities include:
1. Market Integrity: The CFTC ensures the integrity of the futures and options markets by setting and enforcing rules that prevent fraudulent activities, market manipulation, and other unfair practices. This helps maintain the confidence of investors and ensures a level playing field for all participants.
2. Transparency: The agency requires market participants to provide accurate and timely information about their activities and positions. This information helps regulators and investors understand the overall health of the markets and detect any potential risks.
3. Registration and Regulation: The CFTC requires entities involved in trading, clearing, and brokerage services to register with the agency. It then oversees their operations to ensure they comply with regulatory standards and best practices.
4. Enforcement: The CFTC has the authority to take legal action against individuals or entities that violate its regulations. It can impose fines, sanctions, and other penalties on those found guilty of fraudulent or manipulative behavior.
5. Education: The agency provides educational resources and information to the public about the workings of the commodities markets, investment risks, and regulatory safeguards. This helps investors make informed decisions.
6. Market Surveillance: The CFTC monitors the markets to identify any irregularities or unusual activities that could potentially disrupt market stability or harm investors.
The CFTC collaborates with other regulatory bodies, such as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), to ensure coordinated oversight of the financial markets. Its goal is to create an environment where markets operate fairly, efficiently, and transparently, while protecting the interests of both individual investors and the broader economy.
What is Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) ?
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is a U.S. government agency established with the primary purpose of regulating and overseeing the operations of commodity futures and options markets. These markets deal with various commodities, which include agricultural products like wheat, corn, and livestock, energy resources like oil and natural gas, metals like gold and silver, and financial instruments like stock market indices.
The CFTC was created in 1974 with the passage of the Commodity Exchange Act, a law designed to bring transparency, fairness, and stability to the commodities trading industry. Its main responsibilities include:
1. Market Integrity: The CFTC ensures the integrity of the futures and options markets by setting and enforcing rules that prevent fraudulent activities, market manipulation, and other unfair practices. This helps maintain the confidence of investors and ensures a level playing field for all participants.
2. Transparency: The agency requires market participants to provide accurate and timely information about their activities and positions. This information helps regulators and investors understand the overall health of the markets and detect any potential risks.
3. Registration and Regulation: The CFTC requires entities involved in trading, clearing, and brokerage services to register with the agency. It then oversees their operations to ensure they comply with regulatory standards and best practices.
4. Enforcement: The CFTC has the authority to take legal action against individuals or entities that violate its regulations. It can impose fines, sanctions, and other penalties on those found guilty of fraudulent or manipulative behavior.
5. Education: The agency provides educational resources and information to the public about the workings of the commodities markets, investment risks, and regulatory safeguards. This helps investors make informed decisions.
6. Market Surveillance: The CFTC monitors the markets to identify any irregularities or unusual activities that could potentially disrupt market stability or harm investors.
The CFTC collaborates with other regulatory bodies, such as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), to ensure coordinated oversight of the financial markets. Its goal is to create an environment where markets operate fairly, efficiently, and transparently, while protecting the interests of both individual investors and the broader economy.
Trading Crypto Compass
#BTC dropped again below the support, with that the HTF closed bit bearish now. If we look long then its a consolidation, and due to fundamental event happening globally, its very unclear to the market direction. Wait for the further price action to develop.
#BTC haven't moved much, formed a small triangle pattern and now trying to give a breakout. but still its not much to anything, as a key resistance is sitting over the it, so it might reject.
The MVRV Ratio defines pricing bands highlighting extreme deviations from average investor cost basis. Historically, breakouts above the +1σ band align with longer-term macro tops.
Current levels:
- Realized Price +0.5σ: $100.2k
- Realized Price +1σ: $119.4k
Bitcoin is consolidating between +0.5σ and +1σ, suggesting the market is heated but has room for expansion before unrealized profits reach extreme levels above +1σ that typically trigger widespread profit-taking and major sell-side pressure.
Current levels:
- Realized Price +0.5σ: $100.2k
- Realized Price +1σ: $119.4k
Bitcoin is consolidating between +0.5σ and +1σ, suggesting the market is heated but has room for expansion before unrealized profits reach extreme levels above +1σ that typically trigger widespread profit-taking and major sell-side pressure.
Trading Crypto Compass
#BTC haven't moved much, formed a small triangle pattern and now trying to give a breakout. but still its not much to anything, as a key resistance is sitting over the it, so it might reject.
#BTC play as per the plan, gave a triangle breakout but resistance kept in intact, and rejected it strongly. Price broke the structure bearish now, and expected to have continuation lower.
Standard deviation bands around the Short-Term Holder cost-basis assess locally overheated conditions:
STH Cost-Basis +0.5σ: $120.3k
STH Cost-Basis +1σ: $135.7k
Historically, price has traded between these bands for 467 days and above +1σ for 484 days—just 17.5% of Bitcoin's trading history, making entry into this range uncommon and often acting as local price action upper bounds.
While MVRV +1σ indicates macro tops, STH-CB +0.5σ and +1σ bands signal local topping formations. Combined, these models provide a robust framework for identifying overheated market conditions.
STH Cost-Basis +0.5σ: $120.3k
STH Cost-Basis +1σ: $135.7k
Historically, price has traded between these bands for 467 days and above +1σ for 484 days—just 17.5% of Bitcoin's trading history, making entry into this range uncommon and often acting as local price action upper bounds.
While MVRV +1σ indicates macro tops, STH-CB +0.5σ and +1σ bands signal local topping formations. Combined, these models provide a robust framework for identifying overheated market conditions.
#Educational Post
What is Crypto Winter ?
"Crypto Winter" is a term used to describe a prolonged period of significant decline in the prices of cryptocurrencies, often accompanied by a decrease in trading volumes and overall market activity. It is analogous to the concept of a "bear market" in traditional financial markets. During a Crypto Winter, the prices of many cryptocurrencies experience a substantial drop, leading to a pessimistic sentiment among investors and traders.
Crypto Winters are typically characterized by several factors:
1. Price Decline: The most prominent feature of a Crypto Winter is a sustained and substantial decline in the prices of various cryptocurrencies. This decline can range from several months to over a year.
2. Reduced Market Activity: Trading volumes and liquidity in the crypto markets tend to decrease during a Crypto Winter. Investors become more cautious and may refrain from making new investments.
3. Negative Sentiment: Negative news and events in the crypto space, such as regulatory crackdowns, security breaches, or market manipulations, can contribute to a sense of uncertainty and pessimism among market participants.
4. Impact on Projects: Many cryptocurrency projects, especially those without robust fundamentals or strong use cases, may struggle to secure funding or maintain their operations during a Crypto Winter. Some projects may even face bankruptcy or suspension.
5. Investor Apathy: During a Crypto Winter, some retail investors and traders may lose interest in the market due to the prolonged downtrend. This can result in reduced participation and slower adoption of cryptocurrencies.
6. Industry Consolidation: The challenging market conditions of a Crypto Winter can lead to consolidation in the cryptocurrency industry, with weaker projects failing and stronger ones continuing to develop and innovate.
It's important to note that Crypto Winters are part of the natural market cycle of cryptocurrencies, and they have occurred multiple times since the inception of Bitcoin and other digital assets. While Crypto Winters can be difficult for market participants, they can also provide opportunities for long-term investors to accumulate assets at lower prices before the market enters a new bull cycle.
What is Crypto Winter ?
"Crypto Winter" is a term used to describe a prolonged period of significant decline in the prices of cryptocurrencies, often accompanied by a decrease in trading volumes and overall market activity. It is analogous to the concept of a "bear market" in traditional financial markets. During a Crypto Winter, the prices of many cryptocurrencies experience a substantial drop, leading to a pessimistic sentiment among investors and traders.
Crypto Winters are typically characterized by several factors:
1. Price Decline: The most prominent feature of a Crypto Winter is a sustained and substantial decline in the prices of various cryptocurrencies. This decline can range from several months to over a year.
2. Reduced Market Activity: Trading volumes and liquidity in the crypto markets tend to decrease during a Crypto Winter. Investors become more cautious and may refrain from making new investments.
3. Negative Sentiment: Negative news and events in the crypto space, such as regulatory crackdowns, security breaches, or market manipulations, can contribute to a sense of uncertainty and pessimism among market participants.
4. Impact on Projects: Many cryptocurrency projects, especially those without robust fundamentals or strong use cases, may struggle to secure funding or maintain their operations during a Crypto Winter. Some projects may even face bankruptcy or suspension.
5. Investor Apathy: During a Crypto Winter, some retail investors and traders may lose interest in the market due to the prolonged downtrend. This can result in reduced participation and slower adoption of cryptocurrencies.
6. Industry Consolidation: The challenging market conditions of a Crypto Winter can lead to consolidation in the cryptocurrency industry, with weaker projects failing and stronger ones continuing to develop and innovate.
It's important to note that Crypto Winters are part of the natural market cycle of cryptocurrencies, and they have occurred multiple times since the inception of Bitcoin and other digital assets. While Crypto Winters can be difficult for market participants, they can also provide opportunities for long-term investors to accumulate assets at lower prices before the market enters a new bull cycle.
🚨 BREAKING: TRUMP WARNS IRAN — GLOBAL TENSIONS RISE 🇺🇸🇮🇷
Former U.S. President Donald Trump has issued a strong warning to Iran:
“They should stop immediately. Otherwise they’ll get hit again.”
He added:
“If peace does not come quickly, we will go after other targets in Iran, with precision, speed, and skill.”
⚠️ These aggressive statements come amid rising geopolitical instability, significantly increasing fears of escalation into a broader conflict — with some analysts now warning about the early signs of a potential World War 3 scenario.
📉 Markets Reacting:
• Global equities and crypto markets may face sharp corrections as risk aversion kicks in.
• Safe-haven assets like gold and oil may spike.
• Crypto, being a volatile asset class, may experience a sudden drop if panic spreads.
💡 Caution is Key: Monitor the situation closely. Keep stop losses tight and avoid over-leveraging in this period of uncertainty.
👉 Stay tuned for real-time updates as the situation unfolds.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump has issued a strong warning to Iran:
“They should stop immediately. Otherwise they’ll get hit again.”
He added:
“If peace does not come quickly, we will go after other targets in Iran, with precision, speed, and skill.”
⚠️ These aggressive statements come amid rising geopolitical instability, significantly increasing fears of escalation into a broader conflict — with some analysts now warning about the early signs of a potential World War 3 scenario.
📉 Markets Reacting:
• Global equities and crypto markets may face sharp corrections as risk aversion kicks in.
• Safe-haven assets like gold and oil may spike.
• Crypto, being a volatile asset class, may experience a sudden drop if panic spreads.
💡 Caution is Key: Monitor the situation closely. Keep stop losses tight and avoid over-leveraging in this period of uncertainty.
👉 Stay tuned for real-time updates as the situation unfolds.
Trading Crypto Compass
#TON/USDT ANALYSIS : #TON is moving in a huge consolidation range between the support and resistance at $2,79 - $2.91 and $3.50 - $3.61 respectively. Well, a breakout is need to confirm anything, and with that we need to see market sentiment too. If #BTC…
#TON reached the key support zone and price gave a wick below the support, so longs might be faked and short-sells can be high probable now.