Overall open interest in BTC perps (denominated by BTC) has seen one of the strongest and most violent increases in months, showing an increase of over 60,000 BTC (worth around $1.2 Billion) since the beginning of October. This is another indicator of market health and general investor interest, which will likely play an important role in our next mid term move.
How can we expect BTC’s price action to react to this increase in overall open interest?
The increase in monthly open interest for BTC perps is likely due to an increase in retail and institutional investors entering the market. If we see this trend continuing for the next couple of weeks, we’re likely going to see an initial BTC move towards $26,000 - $30,000 and an increase in BTC market dominance, before a drop in dominance and a mid/long term explosion in alts, for which we’ll be ready.
How can we expect BTC’s price action to react to this increase in overall open interest?
The increase in monthly open interest for BTC perps is likely due to an increase in retail and institutional investors entering the market. If we see this trend continuing for the next couple of weeks, we’re likely going to see an initial BTC move towards $26,000 - $30,000 and an increase in BTC market dominance, before a drop in dominance and a mid/long term explosion in alts, for which we’ll be ready.
BTC’s tightening short/mid term range can also be clearly seen in net weekly crypto asset flows, which have totaled just $5 Million last week in favor of sellers. This is the lowest we’ve been in weeks in terms of overall flow difference, and it’s a clear sign that the market is about to see a much larger than expected move.
How can we expect this mid term move to go after a confirmation?
After over a month of an extremely tight range, we can expect this to become mid term accumulation, which would be confirmed with a BTC break and close above $21,000. Once this happens, momentum will start building up for buyers and spread to other coins, which could potentially take us to new mid term market highs.
How can we expect this mid term move to go after a confirmation?
After over a month of an extremely tight range, we can expect this to become mid term accumulation, which would be confirmed with a BTC break and close above $21,000. Once this happens, momentum will start building up for buyers and spread to other coins, which could potentially take us to new mid term market highs.
Bitcoin’s mining difficulty has just seen an increase of 13.5%, pushing it to a new All Time High, regardless of current market price action and market structure. We can see a clearly a pattern correlation between BTC’s mining difficulty and long term price action, which will likely play out once again in the next months.
What does this mean for price action (BTC and major alts)
This means that once BTC mini difficult stretches to unsustainable mid term levels (which we’re currently reaching) we see a strong upside reaction from the market, which could very likely take us towards new mid or even long term highs in the next 6-12 months. This is a move we’re expecting and we’re ready to catch perfectly.
What does this mean for price action (BTC and major alts)
This means that once BTC mini difficult stretches to unsustainable mid term levels (which we’re currently reaching) we see a strong upside reaction from the market, which could very likely take us towards new mid or even long term highs in the next 6-12 months. This is a move we’re expecting and we’re ready to catch perfectly.
Ethereum’s weekly supply has just turned deflationary for the first time since The Merge in September. After the Merge, we saw ETH dropping quickly in value reading our current $1,200’s levels, in which time we haven’t seen any important upside reaction from it, and this new indicator could be showing us what to expect.
What do we expect from ETH and closely linked alts in the next couple of months, and entering 2023?
We can expect ETH becoming deflationary to have a strong mid term effect on ETH and the rest of the alt-coin market over the next couple of months. We’re likely having ETH breaking above $1,500 first, before potentially heading once again above $2,000 and dragging the rest of high market cap alts up with it.
What do we expect from ETH and closely linked alts in the next couple of months, and entering 2023?
We can expect ETH becoming deflationary to have a strong mid term effect on ETH and the rest of the alt-coin market over the next couple of months. We’re likely having ETH breaking above $1,500 first, before potentially heading once again above $2,000 and dragging the rest of high market cap alts up with it.
Our current Cash vs Crypto Margined Futures Open Interest chart for Bitcoin has seen a new All Time High this week, indicating that most retail traders currently have a much higher open interest in cash margined positions, which also indicated extremely low secondary crypto interest and a potential mid term move caused by this.
How can we expect this to affect the market in the mid term?
We’re likely reaching a bottom in crypto interest lows, which means that people are currently extremely uninterested in most markets. This, has historically caused very high volume moves to the upside, even starting completely new market cycles, and it’s likely what we’re about to see from here.
How can we expect this to affect the market in the mid term?
We’re likely reaching a bottom in crypto interest lows, which means that people are currently extremely uninterested in most markets. This, has historically caused very high volume moves to the upside, even starting completely new market cycles, and it’s likely what we’re about to see from here.
Bitcoins’s relationship with gold has increased drastically in the last couple of months, pushing its correlation to new multi-year highs, reaching levels not seen since 2019-2020. This is a trend we’ve seen a couple of times in the past with similar strength and the outcome has been constant.
How can we expect this to affect the market in the mid and long term?
This pattern has been seen for the last time between 2019 and 2020 as we’ve mentioned, and after this we saw the start of our strongest bull market cycle so far, pushing BTC towards $69,000. If this is the case again, we could see BTC once again gaining higher time frame bullish strength and momentum, reaching new mid and potentially long term highs.
How can we expect this to affect the market in the mid and long term?
This pattern has been seen for the last time between 2019 and 2020 as we’ve mentioned, and after this we saw the start of our strongest bull market cycle so far, pushing BTC towards $69,000. If this is the case again, we could see BTC once again gaining higher time frame bullish strength and momentum, reaching new mid and potentially long term highs.
BTC’s 30 day realized volatility has just hit a new 2-year low with a clean break and close below 50%, a level we haven’t seen since November of 2020, and this is one of the hidden indicators few traders are watching, and one that could be about to determine our next couple of months worth of price action.
How can we expect this to affect the overall market in terms of price action?
Considering that the last time we’ve seen such a low volatility was before starting the market cycle that took BTC to $69,000, we can expect to be near a similar breakout move in the long term for both BTC and high market cap alts. This move would be confirmed with a violent increase in buying volume and a BTC break and close above $30,000
How can we expect this to affect the overall market in terms of price action?
Considering that the last time we’ve seen such a low volatility was before starting the market cycle that took BTC to $69,000, we can expect to be near a similar breakout move in the long term for both BTC and high market cap alts. This move would be confirmed with a violent increase in buying volume and a BTC break and close above $30,000
BTC’s correlation with ETH has dropped to an 11 month low after yesterday’s ETH explosion towards $1,500 while BTC remained stable around $20,000. This increase in ETH strength and stability in BTC after a long term bear market is likely an indicator of what we’re about to see in the market over the mid term, and we’re ready for it.
How can we expect mid and long term price action to react for ETH and alts over the next few months?
We’re likely going to see a further increase in ETH market dominance over the next couple of weeks and months, if the market manages to sustain its la bullish move. If this is the case, we’re going to confirm a mid term alt coin season, with which we would likely see ETH and alts exploding towards new mid and long term highs leading to our yearly close.
How can we expect mid and long term price action to react for ETH and alts over the next few months?
We’re likely going to see a further increase in ETH market dominance over the next couple of weeks and months, if the market manages to sustain its la bullish move. If this is the case, we’re going to confirm a mid term alt coin season, with which we would likely see ETH and alts exploding towards new mid and long term highs leading to our yearly close.
In the last 3 years (since 2019), 68 cryptocurrency exchanges have been shut down globally, mainly in Asia, North America and Europe, which has given the few dominating players in the market a much stronger market hold over total exchange volume, and this could accelerate in the next couple of months, making BTC and other cryptocurrencies follow a similar path as other markets.
How can we expect this to affect overall price action and market structure in the long term?
We could see cryptocurrencies start trading as commodities (in terms of price action and volatility) in the next couple of years if this trend continues. This would create a much less risky environment for investors, but would also create less high profit potential opportunities, and that’s why now it’s the time for this market.
How can we expect this to affect overall price action and market structure in the long term?
We could see cryptocurrencies start trading as commodities (in terms of price action and volatility) in the next couple of years if this trend continues. This would create a much less risky environment for investors, but would also create less high profit potential opportunities, and that’s why now it’s the time for this market.
After Ethereum’s Merge in September, we’ve seen a drastic and quick increase in the number of ETH blocks that are OFAC compliant, increasing from 0% to over 60% by our October monthly close. This is a small but significant indicator for ETH and closely related alts, which could affect their price action and market structure for the next couple of months.
What does this mean for ETH’s price action towards our yearly close?
This means that ETH’s Merge can be considered a success, and that if we see a further increase in block compliance over the next couple of months, we could very much see the beginning of a new full-blown bull cycle for ETH and alts, which could take us once again above $2,500 and higher.
What does this mean for ETH’s price action towards our yearly close?
This means that ETH’s Merge can be considered a success, and that if we see a further increase in block compliance over the next couple of months, we could very much see the beginning of a new full-blown bull cycle for ETH and alts, which could take us once again above $2,500 and higher.
Implied volatility for both BTC and ETH has seen a very violent and pronounced increase in the last couple of days, after months of ranging prices. BTC’s Implied volatility increased from a 50% average up to 60%, while ETH’s implied volatility completely exploded from a 60% monthly average to almost 80% as of November 1st.
What does this tell us about what to expect in terms of price action for the next couple of months?
We can expect volatility for BTC, ETH and major alts to further increase in the next couple of months, and if we see strength and bullish momentum building up on higher time frames, we could even see the start of a new mid/long term bullish cycle, which would send BTC and ETH to new mid and potentially long term highs.
What does this tell us about what to expect in terms of price action for the next couple of months?
We can expect volatility for BTC, ETH and major alts to further increase in the next couple of months, and if we see strength and bullish momentum building up on higher time frames, we could even see the start of a new mid/long term bullish cycle, which would send BTC and ETH to new mid and potentially long term highs.
OpenSea’s dominance on NFT traded volume (on Ethereum) has been declining very rapidly over the last months, after peaking at 98% in January, it declined to a current low of 70%, meaning that other exchanges such as Rarible, LooksRare and X2Y2 have gained dominance and strength.
How could this affect ETH and other NFT related assets in the market over the next few months?
If we see an increase in overall NFT traded volume over the next few months (which is very likely), we’re going to see ETH, SOL and other NFT alts gaining strength and reaching new mid term highs. If OpenSea starts losing even more market dominance, however, we’re likely going to see much stronger moves on other coins than in ETH, such as the ones we saw in DOGE and LTC.
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How could this affect ETH and other NFT related assets in the market over the next few months?
If we see an increase in overall NFT traded volume over the next few months (which is very likely), we’re going to see ETH, SOL and other NFT alts gaining strength and reaching new mid term highs. If OpenSea starts losing even more market dominance, however, we’re likely going to see much stronger moves on other coins than in ETH, such as the ones we saw in DOGE and LTC.
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Bitcoin is on track with previous bear market, showing pretty much the same higher time frame market structure and price action, as well as volume and overall under the radar indicators.
This means that we’re likely getting to the start of a new market cycle, which we’re going to catch from the very start… again.
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This means that we’re likely getting to the start of a new market cycle, which we’re going to catch from the very start… again.
Share our channel @TradingByCF
DEXs gain market share as faith in centralized crypto players erodes; DEXs trading volume has already reached $91 B in November, a 79% increase over all of October
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Share our channel @TradingByCF