A large-scale fire broke out at a Chevron refinery in California, for an unknown reason.

There are no casualties yet. The El Segundo plant processes 269,000 barrels per day.
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Josep Borrel urged to adapt the EU infrastructure for rapid transportation of military equipment.
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U.S. Refuses Advanced Drones for Ukraine to Avoid Escalation With Russia
Request from Kyiv for Gray Eagles had been under consideration for months
The Wall Street Journal
WASHINGTON—The Biden administration won’t give Ukraine advanced drones despite pleas from Kyiv and a bipartisan group of members of Congress, a reflection of the limit of the kinds of weaponry Washington is willing to provide for Ukraine’s defence.
The decision deprives Ukraine of the kind of advanced weaponry Kyiv has been requesting for months. The Pentagon declined the request based on concerns that providing the Gray Eagle MQ-1C drones could escalate the conflict and signal to Moscow that the U.S. was providing weapons that could target positions inside Russia, U.S. officials and other people familiar with the decision said.

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Germany to Hungary: no grey area on ratifying Sweden, Finland NATO accession
Reuters

BERLIN, Nov 10 - Germany has made it clear to Hungary that there is no grey area when it comes to the ratification of Sweden and Finland's accession to NATO, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said in Berlin on Thursday.

"With regard to the question about Hungary: I would like to underline this clearly ... there is no grey area," Baerbock told a joint news conference with her Swedish counterpart, Tobias Billstrom.

Hungary's parliament will discuss the ratification during its autumn session after a series of EU-related bills have been passed, Prime Minister Viktor Orban's chief of staff said on Wednesday.

#TransFormatorBuzzes : 💤
The democracy enforcement in action...
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Pink Flamingo: The U.S. Military Will Pay for Its Munition Shortage
The military must set realistic requirements for munitions stockpiles based on the certainty of the high rates of expenditures that will be experienced in any future conflict with Russia or China.
The National Interest

The Biden administration’s efforts to assist Ukraine in its war with Russia shine a light on two serious national security problems: the Department of Defense’s inadequate stockpiles of munitions and the difficulties facing the defense industrial base to respond to quickly increase production of critical items. Unfortunately, these problems were not a surprise to senior defense decision-makers.

It has long been recognized both in and out of government that the Pentagon’s inventory of munitions, particularly precision weapons, is inadequate to support a high-end conflict lasting more than a few months. Nor are the munitions industrial base and supporting supply chains in a position to rapidly refill depleted stocks or surge the production of critical weapons systems. Immediate action is necessary to address these two problems.

U.S. national security elites are continually surprised by real-world events. You might recall the term “Black Swans,” which was a popular concept for a while in defense discussions and publications. This was a phrase taken from a book about forecasting written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb that referred to highly improbable, usually unanticipated events with significant impacts. In defense circles, Black Swans were national security challenges that were difficult to foresee. For example, improvised explosive devices were seen by many as a Black Swan which the U.S. military was initially ill-prepared to counter in Southwest Asia.

But not all unexpected but highly impactful national security challenges are Black Swans. One of this country’s premier defense experts, Frank Hoffman, introduced the complementary term “Pink Flamingo,” which he defined as “a predictable event that is ignored due to cognitive biases of a senior leader or a group of leaders trapped by powerful institutional forces.” In essence, this refers to a surprise situation due to the unwillingness of decision-makers to face up to it.

As a result of the Russo-Ukrainian War, the U.S. military is confronting Pink Flamingos. When Russia invaded Ukraine, the United States began moving large amounts of munitions to that country, including 1,400 Stinger man-portable anti-aircraft systems; 8,500 Javelin anti-tank systems; 38,000 other anti-armor systems; 1,500 TOW anti-tank missiles; 150 155mm and 105mm artillery pieces; dozens of long-range missiles for both the MLRS and HIMARS rocket artillery systems; one million unguided 155mm howitzer rounds; 9,000 155mm rounds of Remote Anti-Armor Mine (RAAM) Systems; and several thousand precision guided 155mm artillery shells.

As a consequence, the United States faces a munitions crisis. The drawdown of U.S. munitions stocks has reached a critical point as demand for these bombs, shells, and missiles has risen dramatically. Unfortunately, decades of underfunding have resulted in a defense industrial base with little surge capacity.

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A Republican Victory in the House Ties Biden's Hands on China, Russia, Iran
BY TOM O'CONNOR for the Newsweek

Republican majority in the House of Representatives following a divisive midterm election would not only constrain President Joe Biden's ability to maneuver on domestic legislation, but would also likely hinder attainment of his foreign policy goals in the leadup to the next presidential election two years from now.

Newsweek spoke with experts on all three foreign policy fronts. They predicted a push for a more aggressive approach on China, increased scrutiny on aid to Ukraine, and greater pressure to abandon nuclear talks with Iran in favor of a tougher strategy.

Mark Cancian, a retired colonel in the U.S. Marine Corps who previously worked at the Office of Management and Budget, and now serves as senior adviser with the Center for Strategic and International Studies International Security Program, told Newsweek that one oversight mechanism being proposed is to establish a congressionally mandated watchdog, similar to the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR).

"I don't think there will be cuts to the military aid," Cancian said. "I think that the economic aid will be more vulnerable, because people will argue that money is needed at home and it's less directly involved with the defense of Ukraine."

But as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky sought additional, farther-reaching weapons such as the MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), Cancian said that "the new Congress is likely to be a little more cautious," especially if the administration itself has not pushed for such measures.

And when it came to potentially encouraging Ukraine to pursue talks with Russia to find a diplomatic solution to the conflict, Cancian said he felt "you're going to see more interest in negotiations across the board."

"I think you'll see it in Congress; You'll see it in the public; You might see it in the administration — although I think less so there," he added. "I think you're going to see a lot of it in Europe."

Rising fuel costs linked to the conflict and ensuing Western-led sanctions on Moscow have prompted questions over the longevity of unconditional assistance to Ukraine.

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Why were the realist Republicans called Putinists and fascists when they argued for the same thing the Biden administration is doing?
Sumantra Maitra for the Federalist

US. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has been speaking with high-level Russian officials “to guard against the risk of escalation and keep communications channels open, and not to discuss a settlement of the war in Ukraine,” The Wall Street Journal reports, citing anonymous sources.

It appears the Biden administration has been privately pushing Ukraine to come to the negotiation table, while, bafflingly, providing Ukraine with whatever it wants. On-book U.S. spending on Ukraine’s war is so far about $66.3 billion, the largest foreign government contribution to the war by far.

The Washington Post adds, also citing anonymous sources, that the Biden administration is making:
"a calculated attempt to ensure the government in Kyiv maintains the support of other nations facing constituencies wary of fueling a war for many years to come. The discussions illustrate how complex the Biden administration’s position on Ukraine has become, as U.S. officials publicly vow to support Kyiv with massive sums of aid ‘for as long as it takes’ while hoping for a resolution to the conflict that over the past eight months has taken a punishing toll on the world economy and triggered fears of nuclear war."

Consider the stupidity of this strategy. Everyone with an IQ greater than an absent-minded jellyfish knows Ukraine as an independent actor and state wouldn’t even exist without American politicians granting it an open checkbook even during crippling inflation and functionally open borders. But America has to privately beg Ukraine because Washington, D.C., is trapped by its own grandiose rhetoric and foolish decision to give Ukraine billions and advanced weapons. The tail now wags the dog.

No hegemon in human history had to face this ideological trap, not even the Soviet Union with Fidel Castro. Just like Zelensky and his supporters in D.C. today, Castro would have readily dragged Moscow and the world into a nuclear war in 1962. But Moscow had the leash of its satellites, including Cuba, in their hands. America had too, during the Cold War. But the post-Cold War U.S. establishment is not manned by nationalists or realists, and to them, the survival of an “order” is more important than targeted U.S. interests.

That gives rise to scenarios such as Europeans demanding the United States share plans with them when the United States practically dwarves them in aid in a war in their backyard. It’s not just rhetoric but the provision of massive amounts of U.S. cash and weapons, without which the war would have long been over regardless of how well the Ukrainians fought.

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Italy stopped deliveries of arms to Ukraine
Il Messaggero: Italian Defence Minister Crosetto announced a halt in the supply of weapons to Kyiv

Italy is not preparing new arms supplies for Ukraine, Defence Minister Guido Crosetto said in an interview with Il Messaggero newspaper.
"We are not preparing the sixth package (an interdepartmental decree with a list of weapons for Kyiv) and are not talking about the supply of missiles to Ukraine. I do not exclude that in the future there will be a new order within NATO and the European Union on further military assistance to Ukraine, but for now we are completing the supply of weapons promised by the previous government," he said.

Crosetto recalled that military assistance is provided within the framework of a resolution approved by a majority in Parliament.
"We have a framework that allows us to make decisions on military supplies until December 31," the head of the defence department said.
However, he did not rule out that the authorities may reconsider the approach.

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Kherson authorities said that it is still possible to leave the right bank of the Dnieper
Deputy head of the Kherson region Gubareva: the opportunity to leave the right bank remains

SIMFEROPOL, November 10 - RIA Novosti. The possibility of the departure of the population from the right-bank part of the Kherson region remains, Deputy Head of the Regional Administration Yekaterina Gubareva told RIA Novosti.
“This can now be done only in private. All events related to organized departures have been discontinued, they are not planned to be resumed,” she said.
At the same time, according to her, the entrance to the right-bank part of the region is closed for security purposes.
She also noted that the financing of social benefits due to citizens continues, but it is very difficult to deliver money to the right bank, so they can be received in the left bank of the region.

The day before, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu agreed with the proposal of the commander of the Joint Group of Russian Forces Sergei Surovikin to organize defence in the Kherson region, on the left bank of the Dnieper. As Surovikin noted, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue shelling the Kakhovka dam, this can provoke flooding, which will entail significant casualties. It also threatens to isolate the troops on the right bank of the Dnieper if they are not withdrawn from there. In addition, the group located near Kherson is facing supply difficulties due to Ukrainian artillery strikes on transport corridors.
The commander emphasized that more than 115,000 civilians were evacuated from the region.
Enemy losses from August to September in this section of the line of contact amounted to more than 9.5 thousand people killed and wounded, while the Russian troops lost seven to eight times less.

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After Kherson, Russia will have to answer the damned question of its history

Petr Akopov for RIA Novosti:

The departure of our army from Kherson to the left bank of the Dnieper provoked the expected reaction from a part of society — what a horror, everything is gone. They also repeat one of the most famous phrases in Russian history: "What is this — stupidity or treason?"
These words were uttered 106 years ago, on November 14, 1916: at a meeting of the State Duma, the leader of the Cadet Party, Pavel Milyukov, in his speech denouncing the authorities, posed the question point-blank: "What is this — stupidity or treason?" Among the accusations thrown in the face of the supreme power — the royal court and the government — the main one was that she was looking for a "shameful peace" with Germany. The leader of the opposition named (prudently quoting the German press) those who allegedly constitute this traitorous party: among them were Prime Minister Stürmer (from Russian Germans) and Grigory Rasputin. Milyukov's speech was banned by the censors, but it was on the lists. A few days later, Stürmer was dismissed (not because of Milyukov's speech), the next month Rasputin was killed - and two months later it was February 1917 ...

None of what Milyukov said was true — neither the royal court nor the government were conducting secret negotiations with Germany. But then a considerable part of educated society believed Milyukov, who, after the abdication of Nicholas II, became the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia and tried to wage the war to a victorious end. But the army without a tsar at the head (who was, after all, also the supreme commander in chief) began to decompose along with the whole country — and instead of victory, we got a revolution, the obscene Treaty of Brest-Litovsk (that is, the loss of western lands, including Ukraine) and the Civil War. Why we recall it now?
To the fact that the indignation at the next statement of our Foreign Ministry that Russia is ready for negotiations with Ukraine is very reminiscent of those same Milyukov suffering — how is it, why did we fight, we must not allow a blow to the back of our army, we need to stop the traitors in the elite who are ready to surrender Russian interests in negotiations (secret or overt)! Bad news from the fronts is commented on in exactly the same way — they are leaving Kherson because they want to come to an agreement with the West, start negotiations, and refuse to defeat Ukraine! Here are the traitors — they only think about their skins and capital! It is necessary to expose everyone, remove them and put them on trial, and the one who does not understand this and does not do this is himself a traitor!
We have been hearing and reading all this for a very long time, but now there is another exacerbation of pseudo-patriotic hysteria. It covers a small part of society, but this is not good either. Moreover, there is a danger that in the event of defeats at the front, in combination with some next statement about negotiations, the neurosis will spread to the broad masses, that is, it will begin to threaten the main condition for our victory: popular unity in trust in the supreme power. To prevent this from happening, you need to know the lessons of history well — including remembering November 1916 — and be aware of what is happening now, distinguish between real and imaginary threats.
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Continued below ⬇️⬇️⬇️

Continuation from above ⬆️⬆️⬆️

Russia is not threatened with treason — Putin will never agree to a "shameful peace" either with Ukraine or with the West. On February 24 this year, a historic choice was made, the Rubicon was crossed, after which Russia can only move forward. Stumbling, making mistakes, missing blows, concentrating, even temporarily retreating tactically, but strategically moving only forward. The speed of this movement can be different — it depends on our efforts, and on external resistance, and on the global situation. The words that our Foreign Ministry and even Putin speak to the public can also be different — and even very peaceful, but at the same time they serve very specific tactical goals. Not replacing and certainly not cancelling the strategic goal, which is crystal clear. Russia is returning itself to itself — both in the territorial, and in the spiritual, and in the ideological sense. The former Ukraine no longer exists — and on the pages of future Russian history there is already another Russia.

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