Ukraine will not negotiate until the withdrawal of Russian troops to the positions they held until February 24 of this year. In general, such a position of Kiev is even beneficial to Moscow. Minsk-3 supporters have nothing to cling to. Because it is very difficult to imagine the withdrawal of troops for both military and political reasons.
As for the fighting itself, it should be recognized: the second stage is significantly different from the first. Russia is fighting with a limited contingent of its own armed forces, the formation of the DPR and LPR, as well as the private military companies. The total number does not reach even 200 thousand.
The mobilized Ukrainian army, the national guard and foreign "wild geese" (mercenaries) are fighting against this group (by the way, now there are not so many of them). Together, according to various estimates, they make up up to 700 thousand.
The smaller number of the Russian group is offset by dominance in the air (not complete) and the lack of experience of offensive operations on the Ukrainian side. Defense and offensive are two different types of battle. And while all the attempts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to take the advantage of numerical superiority were unsuccessful.
In turn, Russian troops concentrated their main efforts on the Donbass, and on the rest of the fronts - north of Kharkov, in the south of the Zaporizhzhya region and in the north-west of Kherson - they hold defense. Now Moscow has a priority goal - full control over the territory of the DPR and LPR within the borders of the former Ukrainian Donetsk and Lugansk regions.
There may be surprises in war. However, if the things continue to be as they are now, then in about two to three months the whole of Donbass will be under Russian control. And then the question will arise about further actions.
There are three main options :
• establishing control over Nikolaev and Odessa, including the organization of a land bridge in Transnistria;
• operation in Zaporozhye in order to control the entire territory of the region (now about 30%);
• operation against Kharkov.
Most likely, if there are no surprises, Moscow would prefer to control the remaining Black Sea coast of Ukraine. In any case, after that all questions about the release of ports for the restoration of Ukrainian exports will be removed. As well as the threat of the NATO fleet appearing in the Black Sea in the event of a change in Turkish policy.
It can be assumed that then there will be a prompt and political pause in order to probe the position of the United States and the EU countries. And further actions will directly depend on this probe.
Thus, the minimum program for Moscow is Donbass, Kherson, Zaporozhye, Nikolaev and Odessa. Control over the Black Sea coast, land bridges in Crimea and Transnistria. And then everything depends on the situation. In general, forecasts for war are an ungrateful (based on https://t.me/pintofmind/2046)
As for the fighting itself, it should be recognized: the second stage is significantly different from the first. Russia is fighting with a limited contingent of its own armed forces, the formation of the DPR and LPR, as well as the private military companies. The total number does not reach even 200 thousand.
The mobilized Ukrainian army, the national guard and foreign "wild geese" (mercenaries) are fighting against this group (by the way, now there are not so many of them). Together, according to various estimates, they make up up to 700 thousand.
The smaller number of the Russian group is offset by dominance in the air (not complete) and the lack of experience of offensive operations on the Ukrainian side. Defense and offensive are two different types of battle. And while all the attempts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to take the advantage of numerical superiority were unsuccessful.
In turn, Russian troops concentrated their main efforts on the Donbass, and on the rest of the fronts - north of Kharkov, in the south of the Zaporizhzhya region and in the north-west of Kherson - they hold defense. Now Moscow has a priority goal - full control over the territory of the DPR and LPR within the borders of the former Ukrainian Donetsk and Lugansk regions.
There may be surprises in war. However, if the things continue to be as they are now, then in about two to three months the whole of Donbass will be under Russian control. And then the question will arise about further actions.
There are three main options :
• establishing control over Nikolaev and Odessa, including the organization of a land bridge in Transnistria;
• operation in Zaporozhye in order to control the entire territory of the region (now about 30%);
• operation against Kharkov.
Most likely, if there are no surprises, Moscow would prefer to control the remaining Black Sea coast of Ukraine. In any case, after that all questions about the release of ports for the restoration of Ukrainian exports will be removed. As well as the threat of the NATO fleet appearing in the Black Sea in the event of a change in Turkish policy.
It can be assumed that then there will be a prompt and political pause in order to probe the position of the United States and the EU countries. And further actions will directly depend on this probe.
Thus, the minimum program for Moscow is Donbass, Kherson, Zaporozhye, Nikolaev and Odessa. Control over the Black Sea coast, land bridges in Crimea and Transnistria. And then everything depends on the situation. In general, forecasts for war are an ungrateful (based on https://t.me/pintofmind/2046)
Telegram
Пинта разума
Украина не будет вести переговоры до отвода российских войск на позиции, которые они занимали до 24 февраля этого года. В общем, такая позиция Киева даже выгодна Москве. Сторонникам "Минска-3" даже не за что зацепиться. Потому что представить отвод войск…
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Forwarded from Fearless John - @European_dissident
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Heinrich Himmler, origin of Nazi Occultism and the Black Sun.
The cult for Adolf Hitler.
The cult for Adolf Hitler.
Ukrainians again strike at Kherson and the suburbs. Russian air defense is working right now.
You understand what it is, yes?
The Russians are shelling Severodonetsk, Lysichansk, Bakhmut - because they are preparing to attack and take them. They will go there and make their way. And the primary targets are defence facilities. Unfortunately Ukrainian forces are frequently using civilian infrastructure and residential houses for their defence purposes.
Those (Ukrainian forces) hit at Lugansk, Donetsk, Gorlovka, Kherson (where they claim are their citizens, beloved) - just like that. To make a point. To revenge before they retreat. They are not even going to enter these cities. Just leveling out residential areas, that's all. (based on https://t.me/mig41/18051)
You understand what it is, yes?
The Russians are shelling Severodonetsk, Lysichansk, Bakhmut - because they are preparing to attack and take them. They will go there and make their way. And the primary targets are defence facilities. Unfortunately Ukrainian forces are frequently using civilian infrastructure and residential houses for their defence purposes.
Those (Ukrainian forces) hit at Lugansk, Donetsk, Gorlovka, Kherson (where they claim are their citizens, beloved) - just like that. To make a point. To revenge before they retreat. They are not even going to enter these cities. Just leveling out residential areas, that's all. (based on https://t.me/mig41/18051)
Telegram
🇷🇺 МИГ 🌍
ВФУ снова наносят удары по Херсону и пригородам. Прямо сейчас работает российское ПВО.
Вы понимаете, что это такое, да?
Россияне обстреливают Северодонецк, Лисичанск, Бахмут - потому что они их берут. Они идут туда и пробивают себе дорогу.
Эти бьют по…
Вы понимаете, что это такое, да?
Россияне обстреливают Северодонецк, Лисичанск, Бахмут - потому что они их берут. Они идут туда и пробивают себе дорогу.
Эти бьют по…
Forwarded from Ukraine EXPOSED ZOV (Winter is coming edition)
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A direct hit by a shell in a house in the Budenovsky district of Donetsk.
Three people were injured. The shelling was carried out by M777 155mm guns.
So this is what they use western weapons for, how typical of AFU and NATO to support these actions.
Three people were injured. The shelling was carried out by M777 155mm guns.
So this is what they use western weapons for, how typical of AFU and NATO to support these actions.
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Ukraine's budget deficit due to the war is $ 5 billion monthly, said Ukrainian Prime Minister Denis Shmygal.
According to him, “to date, from 30% to 50% of the economy has been lost, the forecast for a drop in GDP is 30-50%. On average, about 35% of the economy today does not work, respectively, the budget is executed from 50% to 75% of the planned peace time budget. At the same time, expenses for social, humanitarian needs, and mine clearance sharply increased... All these things form a budget deficit of $ 5 billion monthly".
According to him, “to date, from 30% to 50% of the economy has been lost, the forecast for a drop in GDP is 30-50%. On average, about 35% of the economy today does not work, respectively, the budget is executed from 50% to 75% of the planned peace time budget. At the same time, expenses for social, humanitarian needs, and mine clearance sharply increased... All these things form a budget deficit of $ 5 billion monthly".
Forwarded from DD Geopolitics (Scott)
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KA-52 doing a little trolling
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https://youtu.be/5CCw1f7FXCQ
American and British leaders are dreaming Putin being dead.
Don't dig a hole for someone or you will and up there yourself!
American and British leaders are dreaming Putin being dead.
Don't dig a hole for someone or you will and up there yourself!
YouTube
Gravitas: MI6 makes a wild claim, says Putin could be dead
Is Vladimir Putin dead? The bosses at UK'S MI6 have made a wild assertion. They say there's a huge possibility that Putin is already dead & the Kremlin could be using his body double. Is this wishful thinking or state propaganda? Palki Sharma decodes.
#Putin…
#Putin…
Forwarded from Xoaquin Flores - New Resistance
💢Is Putin sick and dying? LAVROV INTERVIEW 💢
from TF1 french channel:
"The timing of the Russian special operation in Ukraine is determined by the order to categorically avoid any strikes on civilian infrastructure.
Moscow sees the true intentions of the West towards Russia, it will no longer be possible to make promises on faith.
It is unlikely that the West will go to the abolition of the latest anti-Russian sanctions imposed by them.
The unconditional priority for Russia remains the liberation of the DPR and LPR recognized by the Russian Federation, residents of other territories of Ukraine will have to determine their own future themselves."
Sergei Lavrov commented on the rumors about the alleged illness of Putin:
"President Putin appears in public every day. You can watch him on screens, and read and listen to his speeches. . I don’t think that sane people can see signs of some kind of illness or indisposition in him."
@NewResistance
from TF1 french channel:
"The timing of the Russian special operation in Ukraine is determined by the order to categorically avoid any strikes on civilian infrastructure.
Moscow sees the true intentions of the West towards Russia, it will no longer be possible to make promises on faith.
It is unlikely that the West will go to the abolition of the latest anti-Russian sanctions imposed by them.
The unconditional priority for Russia remains the liberation of the DPR and LPR recognized by the Russian Federation, residents of other territories of Ukraine will have to determine their own future themselves."
Sergei Lavrov commented on the rumors about the alleged illness of Putin:
"President Putin appears in public every day. You can watch him on screens, and read and listen to his speeches. . I don’t think that sane people can see signs of some kind of illness or indisposition in him."
@NewResistance
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One half of Severodonetsk is taken. The front line is passing through the centre of the city. Confirmed by the Ukrainian side.
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How it may worth fighting for if it is "not good" 🤔
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Forwarded from DD Geopolitics (Area 52)
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Destroyed AFU tank in Popasnaya.
I don't even wanna know what happened here.
I don't even wanna know what happened here.
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Forwarded from NEWS: Ukraine, Russia, Donbass
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Russian servicemen delivered humanitarian aid to the crew of a Turkish ship in Kherson.
The vessel entered the Ukrainian port before the start of the special operation and was blocked there because of the mines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Video: Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation
The vessel entered the Ukrainian port before the start of the special operation and was blocked there because of the mines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Video: Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation
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