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A breakdown of the $30,000 level is accompanied by a strong burst of euphoria (Santiment).
It looks like the bearish cycle is over, and then we'll see X's and the cherished $100,000 and higher.

Historically, the best counter-indicator of the market was the mood of the crowd (you can see it well in the Fear and Greed index). Of course, we'd like to be wrong, but with such mass confidence in the impending rise, we may well get some nasty surprises. Something similar happened with corona-dump, only in our situation the regulators and the world banking crisis threaten.

What I'm getting at is this. In times of growth and general euphoria you need to keep a cool head, have a clear plan of action and fix profits without any FOMO (fear of lost profits).
ETH followed our scenario without any problems and instead of falling after the validators were unlocked, it has consolidated above $2000.
And right now the most important resistance, which globally restrains Ether from growth to the historical maximum, is being tested.

Now the main thing is not to let VTC down. And there are difficulties with it, because the banks reporting season starts in USA and crisis in their sphere can pull not only SP500, but also other markets.
The current halving cycle is 74% complete, historically this has always been a time of consolidation or growth, but not correction.
Today there is a sharp withdrawal of bitcoins from exchanges (CryptoQuant)
During the last day the market liquidated positions for almost $360 mln against the volatility of VTS in the range of $27,000-$30,000 (coinglass).

60% of them were longs, the leaders by volume were Binance and OKX exchanges.
There has been a surge of negative sentiment in the market - statistics from Santiment. But at the same time we should understand that the more people are waiting for the fall, the more chances for growth.
This week, the number of transactions on the Bitcoin network reached an all-time high of 682,000 transfers. Against this backdrop, transaction fees have reached 12.4 percent of total miners' income, according to Glassnode analysts.

This is a high figure, which is comparable to the situation in the market in mid-2019. It was higher only during the 4.9 percent days of the Bitcoin network.
Top 10 cryptoprojects with the highest developer activity in the last month:

1) Polkadot #DOT
2) Kusama #KSM
3) Cardano #ADA
4) Hedera #HBAR
5) InternetComputer #ICP
6) Cosmos #ATOM
7) Status #SNT
8) Decentraland #MANA
9) Ethereum #ETH
10) Iota #MIOTA

(Santiment)
Meanwhile, the number of holders of at least 1 VTS has passed the 1 million mark!
(Glassnode)
Going back to the LightCoin talk, in addition to the upcoming halving, another strong bullish signal comes from the MVRV z-score metric. Historically, it has filigree predicted up-trends in LTC
(glassnode).
Already nearly 4.5 million ETN tokens are in the stack since the April 12 update and growing (Glassnode)
For two months, bitcoin has been consolidating in the range of $27,000-30000. A huge number of VTCs have been traded at these prices - Whalemap heat map data. This level will become either an incredibly strong resistance in case of going down, or a powerful support in case of going up.

Everything goes to the fact that the price will consolidate below it, and we will be trying to break back above 30k for a very long time. Therefore, it is strongly not advisable to overreact now. We are waiting for the outcome
People are now actively selling altcoins at a loss, which has historically been considered a bullish factor (santiment)
Miners are buying Bitcoin 📈

After an active selling period last week, miners have started accumulating bitcoins again.

In the last week, they bought more than 20,000 BTC totaling about $540 million.

Miners are like rich hamsters 😅
Table with upcoming halvings from OKLink.

DASH will go halfway through its miners' rewards in 20 days, LightCoin has two months to go. And the most anticipated halving will occur on April 27 next year.
And if nothing critical happens with the cyclicality of bitcoin, 2024-2025 promise to be traditionally very profitable.
Artur Hayes made a new forecast for the crypto market this year. There is a lot of text, but I will write the most important things in a nutshell:

In the second half of the year, we will see strong growth. It will be aided by money printing and people trying to save in the face of inflation.

Bitcoin will not make new highs or lows around $15-16K this year.

For now we have to take a rest from the market, and patience will be rewarded in the end

PS: sounds plausible enough, although I don't trust most of these predictions.
A logarithmic bitcoin trend with repeating price patterns predicts reaching $50,000 within a year.
Bitcoin investor sentiment is now characterized as "greedy. This is supported by the Fear and Greed Index, which now stands at 65 points out of 100. Accordingly, there are enough people willing to invest in BTC and other cryptocurrencies today.

The last time the index was at this level was in early May.
Bitcoin has most likely already passed the bottom of the macro cycle, as most market participants recorded a loss in late 2022 or early 2023 (cryptoquant)

Historically, bullruns started after that. And it looks very promising 📈
The Ethereum chart is in the same position as bitcoin. The price is right under the key resistance and actually just one step away from the upside to the historical maximum.

Quite strong behavior of the rate is due to the fact that the April update of the Shanghai network has brought, instead of a massive withdrawal of ETNs from the stacking, on the contrary, the growth of deposits. Despite the already rather high price of almost $2,000, Ether looks very promising in the long term.
Total open interest in options on the VTS rose to record levels, from which we often received a change of trend (Glassnode)