JPMorgan is still in a bearish mood. For market recovery, it is waiting for the resumption of capitalization growth of steibles and the resumption of growth of venture capital investments in crypto. Right now, both are falling.

And the recent collapse of Silvergate crypto-bank and tighter regulation of crypto in general will have a negative impact on financial flows in the near future.

Circle said that the situation is "inflated" - the main collateral issuer USDC are stored in BlackRock and BNY Mellon, and even if you can not get back that $3.3 billion from Silicon Valley, the shortfall will be overlaid from corporate reserves.

They promise to restore full USDC-dollar parity by the beginning of the new week.

This week's token unlock calendar as a percentage of total supply

#DYDX #BIT #EUL #GAL #APE #STG

BTC miners are using the Bitcoin cycle comparison chart, and now is the hottest time for growth. The price spike we saw in the previous few days was the beginning of the bull run in previous times.

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Strong inflows of VTCs to exchanges continue. In the last two days, bitcoins were added to exchanges for more than a billion dollars (Glassnode).

All of this poses the threat of massive fixes, especially in the event of a price drop.

One of the most reliable metrics on bitcoin, NUPL, which predicts extremes, signals the VTC to move out of the "oversold" zone. Historically, it has always reliably predicted the bull run.

Long-term holders at current levels are intensively fixing profits on bitcoin. Accordingly, a local pullback is quite possible. Technically, the VTS chart also looks weak: the bearish wedge has already been broken down on the 4-hour timeframe.
(Glassnode)

Cryptoprojects with the highest developer activity in the last 30 days:

1) Polkadot #DOT
2) Kusama #KSM
3) Cardano #ADA
4) InternetComputer #ICP
5) Ethereum #ETH
6) Status #SNT
7) Hedera #HBAR
8) Cosmos #ATOM
9) Chainlink #LINK
10) Decentraland #MANA

While we are all trying to figure out what is happening to bitcoin now and where it will go next, a comparison of growth cycles still makes it clear that growth awaits us. All the current dynamics fit perfectly into the pattern of rate behavior between the Halving (Galaxy)

The ESP metric (Exchange Stablecoins Ratio, or otherwise the number of VTCs on exchanges divided by the number of stablecoins) rose to its highest level since May 2021. This means that bitcoins are arriving on exchanges faster than stabelcoins. This in turn means that the purchasing power of stabelcoins is declining. This is certainly a bearish sign for the market.
(CryptoQuant)

Bitcoin closed March up 23%. In just the first quarter, the VTC price rose 72%, one of the best results in history. Usually the year started out much weaker.

April has historically been a strong month, with an average return of 16%. But it should be noted that technically bitcoin now looks quite weak, there are many bearish signs. So there is not much optimism.

According to the MVRV model, many altcoins are significantly underbought now and look promising (Santiment)

Microstrategy's multi-year bitcoin purchases are paying off. Despite the protracted bear market, the average buying price of 140 thousand VTC is at $29800 or practically at breakeven (CryptoQuant)

Quite a working strategy for long-term investments, which is suitable for both large companies and ordinary investors.

The current dynamics of the bitcoin exchange rate still fits into the pattern of price behavior between the halvings

A breakdown of the $30,000 level is accompanied by a strong burst of euphoria (Santiment).
It looks like the bearish cycle is over, and then we'll see X's and the cherished $100,000 and higher.

Historically, the best counter-indicator of the market was the mood of the crowd (you can see it well in the Fear and Greed index). Of course, we'd like to be wrong, but with such mass confidence in the impending rise, we may well get some nasty surprises. Something similar happened with corona-dump, only in our situation the regulators and the world banking crisis threaten.

What I'm getting at is this. In times of growth and general euphoria you need to keep a cool head, have a clear plan of action and fix profits without any FOMO (fear of lost profits).

ETH followed our scenario without any problems and instead of falling after the validators were unlocked, it has consolidated above $2000.
And right now the most important resistance, which globally restrains Ether from growth to the historical maximum, is being tested.

Now the main thing is not to let VTC down. And there are difficulties with it, because the banks reporting season starts in USA and crisis in their sphere can pull not only SP500, but also other markets.

The current halving cycle is 74% complete, historically this has always been a time of consolidation or growth, but not correction.

Today there is a sharp withdrawal of bitcoins from exchanges (CryptoQuant)

During the last day the market liquidated positions for almost $360 mln against the volatility of VTS in the range of $27,000-$30,000 (coinglass).

60% of them were longs, the leaders by volume were Binance and OKX exchanges.

There has been a surge of negative sentiment in the market - statistics from Santiment. But at the same time we should understand that the more people are waiting for the fall, the more chances for growth.