[This is the most important technical level one the chart]
Here are a few reasons why…
Reason #1: Losing traders hoping to get out at breakeven
Multi-year highs represent extreme optimism in the markets because most traders (and investors) are in profits.
But as you know, the price cannot go up forever. Eventually, it has to retrace or reverse altogether.
When that happens, many traders will exit their long trades.
However, not everyone will do the same. Some will continue holding, hoping the price could breakout higher to give them even more profits.
But when the market collapses even lower, they’ll regret not selling earlier as their open profits have been eroded and they are now sitting on their losses. They hope the market could re-test the highs so they can get out of their trades at breakeven.
Reason #2: Bearish traders looking to short the markets
For bearish traders, multi-year highs present an opportunity to short the market at a “high price” because they can reference the highs to set their stop loss.
So as the price approaches multi-year highs, the short interest from bearish traders will increase.
Reason #3: Momentum traders looking to buy breakouts
Momentum traders buy breakouts as the price moves above a certain level. It could be breakouts of a range, swing high, resistance, etc.
But what’s interesting is if the price breaks out of multi-year highs, it’ll attract attention from traders across different timeframes.
That’s because whether you’re a day trader, swing trader, long-term trader, etc. the multi-year highs will be something visible on your timeframe (and charts).
Now, whether you’re bullish or bearish, multi-year high is a significant level for traders.
If you’re bearish, then you can reference it to set your stop loss above the highs.
If you’re bullish, then you can look to buy the breakout and have your stops below the previous multi-year highs (anticipating that it could become previous resistance turned support).
(And vice versa for multi-year low.)
Here are a few reasons why…
Reason #1: Losing traders hoping to get out at breakeven
Multi-year highs represent extreme optimism in the markets because most traders (and investors) are in profits.
But as you know, the price cannot go up forever. Eventually, it has to retrace or reverse altogether.
When that happens, many traders will exit their long trades.
However, not everyone will do the same. Some will continue holding, hoping the price could breakout higher to give them even more profits.
But when the market collapses even lower, they’ll regret not selling earlier as their open profits have been eroded and they are now sitting on their losses. They hope the market could re-test the highs so they can get out of their trades at breakeven.
Reason #2: Bearish traders looking to short the markets
For bearish traders, multi-year highs present an opportunity to short the market at a “high price” because they can reference the highs to set their stop loss.
So as the price approaches multi-year highs, the short interest from bearish traders will increase.
Reason #3: Momentum traders looking to buy breakouts
Momentum traders buy breakouts as the price moves above a certain level. It could be breakouts of a range, swing high, resistance, etc.
But what’s interesting is if the price breaks out of multi-year highs, it’ll attract attention from traders across different timeframes.
That’s because whether you’re a day trader, swing trader, long-term trader, etc. the multi-year highs will be something visible on your timeframe (and charts).
Now, whether you’re bullish or bearish, multi-year high is a significant level for traders.
If you’re bearish, then you can reference it to set your stop loss above the highs.
If you’re bullish, then you can look to buy the breakout and have your stops below the previous multi-year highs (anticipating that it could become previous resistance turned support).
(And vice versa for multi-year low.)
⚠️Instructions: how to use the signals:
❕The signals have all the values you need. I don't share takeprofits, but I don't forbid you to do so either.
🔸Buy/Long - entry point, at a specified price to open an order
🔸StopLoss - I do not allow trading without it! It is mandatory to use it! This will secure your trade in case the market turns against us!
🔸TakeProfit - the average potential of 2 to 1, to 5 to 1.
❕Risks:
You don't need to ask me what lot you should use. You need to use risk to trade. All professional traders first of all calculate their daily, weekly and monthly risks, and then they start to build a trading strategy.
Constructive daily risks: from 1% to 5% of your deposit.
That is, if your deposit = 1000%, then you have the right to spend per day no more than 10-50$.
From figure in 10-50$ you already start, how many transactions you can open. If you have an average of 2 deals per day, then you can divide your risk in half and get each deal a different risk for the day.
As for the lot volume and lot price: this information should be checked with your broker. Because each broker sets his own lot price (especially for futures)
❗️Take Profit and Take Profit trading strategies.
You can close half of an order or the whole order if:
🔸TakeProfit in the moment (your profit) is equal to a stop loss (risk 1 to 1)
🔸You have decided that enough is enough for you
🔸The price reached a strong level (for experienced traders)
📍If you close half of your order, you are still at breakeven, that is, if the price turns around and hits your stop-loss, then you will not lose anything in such a trade.
📍You can also move the stop loss to breakeven (to the entry point) only after you have closed half of the order. (In this case the chance is higher that the price will hit your stop-loss, but you will still be in profit (which you took with half of the order).
❕The signals have all the values you need. I don't share takeprofits, but I don't forbid you to do so either.
🔸Buy/Long - entry point, at a specified price to open an order
🔸StopLoss - I do not allow trading without it! It is mandatory to use it! This will secure your trade in case the market turns against us!
🔸TakeProfit - the average potential of 2 to 1, to 5 to 1.
❕Risks:
You don't need to ask me what lot you should use. You need to use risk to trade. All professional traders first of all calculate their daily, weekly and monthly risks, and then they start to build a trading strategy.
Constructive daily risks: from 1% to 5% of your deposit.
That is, if your deposit = 1000%, then you have the right to spend per day no more than 10-50$.
From figure in 10-50$ you already start, how many transactions you can open. If you have an average of 2 deals per day, then you can divide your risk in half and get each deal a different risk for the day.
As for the lot volume and lot price: this information should be checked with your broker. Because each broker sets his own lot price (especially for futures)
❗️Take Profit and Take Profit trading strategies.
You can close half of an order or the whole order if:
🔸TakeProfit in the moment (your profit) is equal to a stop loss (risk 1 to 1)
🔸You have decided that enough is enough for you
🔸The price reached a strong level (for experienced traders)
📍If you close half of your order, you are still at breakeven, that is, if the price turns around and hits your stop-loss, then you will not lose anything in such a trade.
📍You can also move the stop loss to breakeven (to the entry point) only after you have closed half of the order. (In this case the chance is higher that the price will hit your stop-loss, but you will still be in profit (which you took with half of the order).
📊 Daily Report Breakdown 📊
Gold Dynamics and Associated Factors:
1. Gold Price Movement: Gold currently trades around $1,915, facing selling pressure due to the USD's strength.
2. US Dollar Index (DXY): The DXY remains robust, hovering at 105.95, just off a peak level since November at 106.09.
3. US T-Bond Yields: The 10-year yield has spiked to 4.53%, a level unseen since October 2007, which is pressuring non-yielding assets like gold.
4. Fed's Stance: A majority of Federal Reserve officials anticipate further rate hikes this year. Officials like Susan Collins and Mary Daly stress the need for more hikes even as inflation cools. Austan Goolsbee of the Chicago Fed notes the potential for a soft economic landing but underscores the persistent inflation risks.
5. Upcoming US Data: Key data points include the Q2 US GDP Annualized releasing on Thursday, followed by the highly anticipated Core PCE Price Index on Friday. The latter is expected to slide from 4.2% to 3.9%.
6. XAU/USD Technical Outlook: On an hourly chart, Gold remains below the 50- and 100-hour EMAs, indicating bearish momentum. RSI also confirms bearishness as it's below 50.
Gold Dynamics and Associated Factors:
1. Gold Price Movement: Gold currently trades around $1,915, facing selling pressure due to the USD's strength.
2. US Dollar Index (DXY): The DXY remains robust, hovering at 105.95, just off a peak level since November at 106.09.
3. US T-Bond Yields: The 10-year yield has spiked to 4.53%, a level unseen since October 2007, which is pressuring non-yielding assets like gold.
4. Fed's Stance: A majority of Federal Reserve officials anticipate further rate hikes this year. Officials like Susan Collins and Mary Daly stress the need for more hikes even as inflation cools. Austan Goolsbee of the Chicago Fed notes the potential for a soft economic landing but underscores the persistent inflation risks.
5. Upcoming US Data: Key data points include the Q2 US GDP Annualized releasing on Thursday, followed by the highly anticipated Core PCE Price Index on Friday. The latter is expected to slide from 4.2% to 3.9%.
6. XAU/USD Technical Outlook: On an hourly chart, Gold remains below the 50- and 100-hour EMAs, indicating bearish momentum. RSI also confirms bearishness as it's below 50.
📈 Analysis 📈
Insights & Recommendations:
1. USD Strength: The recent rally in the USD, combined with high yields, continues to be a significant headwind for Gold. It's crucial to watch for any shifts in this dynamic.
2. Fed's Position: The persistent emphasis on additional rate hikes, even with easing inflation, signifies a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve. This could further amplify the challenges for gold.
3. Critical Data Ahead: The upcoming GDP and PCE data will be crucial. A decline in the PCE index could indicate easing inflationary pressures which might provide temporary relief for Gold. However, the overall trend remains bearish.
✨ Trade Recommendations ✨
- Short-Term Traders: Given the bearish technical setup and impending data releases, consider a short bias on Gold, with potential targets at the mentioned support levels. Always employ a suitable risk management strategy.
- Long-Term Traders: The broader outlook for Gold remains bearish due to the strong USD and potential rate hikes. Consider portfolio diversification and hedging strategies.
🌟 Conclusion 🌟
The current environment remains challenging for Gold, predominantly influenced by a strong US Dollar and the Fed's stance on rate hikes. The upcoming data releases will provide more clarity, but the initial trend remains bearish. Trade with caution and keep an eye on evolving market dynamics.
Insights & Recommendations:
1. USD Strength: The recent rally in the USD, combined with high yields, continues to be a significant headwind for Gold. It's crucial to watch for any shifts in this dynamic.
2. Fed's Position: The persistent emphasis on additional rate hikes, even with easing inflation, signifies a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve. This could further amplify the challenges for gold.
3. Critical Data Ahead: The upcoming GDP and PCE data will be crucial. A decline in the PCE index could indicate easing inflationary pressures which might provide temporary relief for Gold. However, the overall trend remains bearish.
✨ Trade Recommendations ✨
- Short-Term Traders: Given the bearish technical setup and impending data releases, consider a short bias on Gold, with potential targets at the mentioned support levels. Always employ a suitable risk management strategy.
- Long-Term Traders: The broader outlook for Gold remains bearish due to the strong USD and potential rate hikes. Consider portfolio diversification and hedging strategies.
🌟 Conclusion 🌟
The current environment remains challenging for Gold, predominantly influenced by a strong US Dollar and the Fed's stance on rate hikes. The upcoming data releases will provide more clarity, but the initial trend remains bearish. Trade with caution and keep an eye on evolving market dynamics.
🌍 US Dollar & Market Update - Tuesday, September 26
📌 Key Points:
- US Dollar Index (DXY) teasing 106.00 mark, highest since November. Current position: 105.90.
- Strong Greenback bolstered by cautious market sentiment and 10-year US Treasury yield spike to 4.54% (highest since Oct 2007).
- All eyes on Friday: Release of Fed's favored inflation measure, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index.
🔍 Forex & Currency Insights:
- Chinese Yuan: Facing challenges, watch out for Evergrande developments.
- EUR/USD: On a downtrend, now below 1.0600 despite ECB President Lagarde's remarks on restrictive rates.
- EUR/GBP: Slipped from 0.8700 to 0.8670.
- GBP vs USD: Pound dips, crossing below 1.2200 after Bank of England's recent dovish views.
- USD/JPY: Surging, now near 149.00 mark. Ongoing rally despite potential Japanese intervention concerns.
- USD/CAD: Slight dip to 1.3450, while AUD/USD nears 0.6400 but rebounds slightly to 0.6420.
📉 Metals Report:
- Gold: Broke below $1,920, nearing $1,915 support.
- Silver: Declined 1.85%, now around the $23.00 mark.
📌 Key Points:
- US Dollar Index (DXY) teasing 106.00 mark, highest since November. Current position: 105.90.
- Strong Greenback bolstered by cautious market sentiment and 10-year US Treasury yield spike to 4.54% (highest since Oct 2007).
- All eyes on Friday: Release of Fed's favored inflation measure, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index.
🔍 Forex & Currency Insights:
- Chinese Yuan: Facing challenges, watch out for Evergrande developments.
- EUR/USD: On a downtrend, now below 1.0600 despite ECB President Lagarde's remarks on restrictive rates.
- EUR/GBP: Slipped from 0.8700 to 0.8670.
- GBP vs USD: Pound dips, crossing below 1.2200 after Bank of England's recent dovish views.
- USD/JPY: Surging, now near 149.00 mark. Ongoing rally despite potential Japanese intervention concerns.
- USD/CAD: Slight dip to 1.3450, while AUD/USD nears 0.6400 but rebounds slightly to 0.6420.
📉 Metals Report:
- Gold: Broke below $1,920, nearing $1,915 support.
- Silver: Declined 1.85%, now around the $23.00 mark.
BUY LIMIT GBPNZD @ 2.0340
SL: 2.0300
TP1: 2.0360
TP2: 2.0380
TP3: 2.0460
SL: 2.0300
TP1: 2.0360
TP2: 2.0380
TP3: 2.0460
GOLD BUY ZONE (1910-1909)
TP1: 1911.5
TP2: 1913
TP3: 1915
STOP LOSS: 1903
TP1: 1911.5
TP2: 1913
TP3: 1915
STOP LOSS: 1903
👍1
Stay calm and relaxed guys. The market
must not control you! But yea that drop
was just stupid 😵
must not control you! But yea that drop
was just stupid 😵
Alert and do it !
Let's close half and set +BE. Risk-free trade ok☝️
Let's close half and set +BE. Risk-free trade ok☝️