🔰 DAILY QUICK MARKET UPDATES 🔰
⚠️️ #USD ⚠️️
⛔ US CPI Comes in Hotter than Expected! Is a 75bps Rate Hike Locked in? This has been the Fed’s biggest worry: that inflation would become “entrenched” in the economy.
⛔ As a result of the data, not only does are the markets pricing in an 84% chance of a 75bps rate hike next week, but according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, markets are also pricing in a 16% chance of a 100bps hike!
⚠️️ #USD ⚠️️
⛔ US CPI Comes in Hotter than Expected! Is a 75bps Rate Hike Locked in? This has been the Fed’s biggest worry: that inflation would become “entrenched” in the economy.
⛔ As a result of the data, not only does are the markets pricing in an 84% chance of a 75bps rate hike next week, but according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, markets are also pricing in a 16% chance of a 100bps hike!
⚠️️ #GBP ⚠️️
🔰 What Will Happen to GBP/USD if the UK Surprises With Higher CPI?
⛔ Expectations are for a headline print of 10.1% YoY and a Core CPI print of 6.4% YoY. If the data is stronger than expected, will GBP/USD move higher? It may, but most likely not to the extent that the US Dollar did after the stronger US CPI.
⛔ The BOE, which is expected to hike 75bps next week, already warned markets of a potential 13% CPI reading in October and a recession beginning in Q4. Therefore, markets have been pricing in a potential higher inflation reading since the last BOE meeting (and GBP/USD is still much lower!).
🔰 What Will Happen to GBP/USD if the UK Surprises With Higher CPI?
⛔ Expectations are for a headline print of 10.1% YoY and a Core CPI print of 6.4% YoY. If the data is stronger than expected, will GBP/USD move higher? It may, but most likely not to the extent that the US Dollar did after the stronger US CPI.
⛔ The BOE, which is expected to hike 75bps next week, already warned markets of a potential 13% CPI reading in October and a recession beginning in Q4. Therefore, markets have been pricing in a potential higher inflation reading since the last BOE meeting (and GBP/USD is still much lower!).
⚠️️ #AUD ⚠️️
🔰 AUD Approaches Monthly Low Ahead of Australia Employment Report
🔰 AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR TALKING POINTS
⛔ AUD/USD falls back from a fresh monthly high (0.6916) as the update to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) boosts expectations for another 75bp Federal Reserve rate hike, but data prints coming out of Australia may curb the recent decline in the exchange rate as job growth is expected to recover in August. As a result,
⛔ AUD/USD may track the negative slope in the moving average as CME FedWatch Tool now reflects a 100% probability for a 75bp rate hike on September 21, but the update to Australia’s Employment report may prop up the exchange rate ahead of the FOMC meeting as the economy is anticipated to add 35.0K jobs in August.
🔰 AUD Approaches Monthly Low Ahead of Australia Employment Report
🔰 AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR TALKING POINTS
⛔ AUD/USD falls back from a fresh monthly high (0.6916) as the update to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) boosts expectations for another 75bp Federal Reserve rate hike, but data prints coming out of Australia may curb the recent decline in the exchange rate as job growth is expected to recover in August. As a result,
⛔ AUD/USD may track the negative slope in the moving average as CME FedWatch Tool now reflects a 100% probability for a 75bp rate hike on September 21, but the update to Australia’s Employment report may prop up the exchange rate ahead of the FOMC meeting as the economy is anticipated to add 35.0K jobs in August.
⚠️️ #JPY ⚠️️
🔰 Japanese Yen Struggles As More Officials Fret Its Weakness
🔰 JAPANESE YEN, BANK OF JAPAN, US DOLLAR, US FEDERAL RESERVE, INFLATION- TALKING POINTS
⛔ The Japanese Yen is still close to 24-year lows against the US Dollar
Japanese officials have been talking about its weakness, intervention is in the air For now, the market will await US inflation data for interest-rate clues.
⛔ The Japanese Yen remains close to 24-year lows against the US Dollar on Tuesday even as some of its major international rivals enjoy a more forceful bounce, with an increasing drumbeat of Japanese officials suggesting that weakness may now have gone beyond what can be justified by fundamentals.
🔰 Japanese Yen Struggles As More Officials Fret Its Weakness
🔰 JAPANESE YEN, BANK OF JAPAN, US DOLLAR, US FEDERAL RESERVE, INFLATION- TALKING POINTS
⛔ The Japanese Yen is still close to 24-year lows against the US Dollar
Japanese officials have been talking about its weakness, intervention is in the air For now, the market will await US inflation data for interest-rate clues.
⛔ The Japanese Yen remains close to 24-year lows against the US Dollar on Tuesday even as some of its major international rivals enjoy a more forceful bounce, with an increasing drumbeat of Japanese officials suggesting that weakness may now have gone beyond what can be justified by fundamentals.
⚠️️ #EUR ⚠️️
🔰 ECB to raise its deposit rate to 2% most likely by the end of this year
⛔ “We now expect the ECB to raise its deposit rate to 2% most likely by the end of this year. In our revised base case, we see another 75 bps hike in October, followed by a 50 bps step in December. The policy rate then settles at 2% through 2023.” “The most likely alternative to this base, is three steps of 50 bps, which would mean the terminal rate is reached in February of next year. We had previously signalled a peak rate of 1.5%.”
🔰 ECB to raise its deposit rate to 2% most likely by the end of this year
⛔ “We now expect the ECB to raise its deposit rate to 2% most likely by the end of this year. In our revised base case, we see another 75 bps hike in October, followed by a 50 bps step in December. The policy rate then settles at 2% through 2023.” “The most likely alternative to this base, is three steps of 50 bps, which would mean the terminal rate is reached in February of next year. We had previously signalled a peak rate of 1.5%.”