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#EURUSD drops to a 3-month low after the U.S. inflation data release

#The euro (EUR) lost almost 0.6% on Tuesday after the U.S. data showed that inflation rose more than expected in January. The report fuelled expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold interest rates steady in March and May.

#Possible effects for traders
Yesterday's data showed that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% month-on-month in January, above the 0.2% increase expected by economists polled by Reuters. Likewise, the increase in the core CPI was higher than expected, immediately reducing the probability of an imminent interest rate cut by the Fed. Currently, the market has completely priced out the chance of a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut in March, considering only a 37% chance of a 25 bps cut in May.

#The key message from today's CPI is that it's slowing but less than expected. The reading supports the Fed's decision to continue to wait for more assurance that inflation is well contained,' said Dec Mullarkey, the managing director at SLC Management. Investors' long-term interest rate expectations have also shifted. According to the interest rate swap market data, traders expect only 90 bps worth of rate cuts by the Fed and almost 110 bps worth of rate cuts by the European Central Bank in 2024. As a result, the divergence in monetary policy expectations exerts downward pressure on EURUSD.

#EURUSD was attempting to recover during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, traders will probably continue to digest yesterday's data, so the established bearish trend might continue. Additional volatility may be triggered by the release of eurozone Gross Domestic Product figures at 10:00 a.m. UTC. If the numbers are lower than expected, the decline in #EURUSD might deepen, pushing the pair below 1.07000. Otherwise, the pair may rebound, targeting the 1.07600 area.

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