🇨🇦#Today's Canadian employment report may define the CAD trend

#The Canadian dollar (CAD) gained 0.06% on Thursday as the price of crude oil, Canada's major export item, surged by more than 3% on the Israel ceasefire rejection.

#Possible effects for traders
USDCAD has been in an uptrend since the end of 2023, when the market started to scale back on its expectations for an early rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed). At the same time, the market doesn't expect the Bank of Canada #(BOC) to be particularly dovish, either. Fundamentally, the divergence between U.S. and Canadian monetary policies favours the Canadian dollar. That is because investors expect more interest rate cuts from the Fed than from the BOC. According to the interest rate swap market data, traders currently price in more than 115 basis points (bps) worth of rate cuts by the Fed and just under 80 bps of cuts by the BOC in 2024. Indeed, the protocols from the recent BOC meeting confirmed that policymakers were concerned about cutting borrowing costs too soon amid persistent inflation.

#USDCAD was essentially unchanged during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the main event for CAD traders is the release of the monthly employment statistics at 1:30 p.m. UTC. The data release usually affects the market significantly. The report includes the latest nonfarm employment figures and unemployment rate—one of the key metrics the regulator uses to decide on changes in monetary policy. #If employment rises faster than expected and the unemployment rate drops, the short-term bearish trend in USDCAD may continue, bringing the pair down towards the critical 1.34000 level. Worse-than-expected results may lead to a sharp upward correction in USDCAD, possibly taking the pair above the important 1.35000 level.

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