Looks like it’s getting very ugly.

Was 100% in stables the last few days (besides some minor trades) because I expected some chop.

But it’s pretty clear now that we go lower. Maybe by a lot.

September will be a very bearish month

Correction first —> Bull will continue

I‘m more than confident that Bitcoin will dump below $100,000 in September, followed by new ATH‘s in the coming weeks and months after ⏳

$ETH held up pretty well yesterday and only went down slightly.

As soon as it doesn’t hold anymore we might see another liquidation cascade brining us towards ~$4000-$3800 (my best estimate)

It feels like sentiment is finally turning bearish.

This wasn’t the case when we first shifted to risk-off & also not when we articulated the bearish stance.

That makes me think it could soon be the right time to start accumulating some of the stronger altcoins (very slowly).

My target range is $4,000–$3,800, so scaling in slowly makes sense here.

That said, I remain bearish overall.

I am still very optimistic about $ENA.

Show me a single coin with a stronger investment case — I haven't seen one yet.

There are two caveats:

First, the investor unlock is pretty significant.
Second, it only works when funding rates are high.

Monitoring the situation.

(Currently not holding any.)

$ENA key metrics:

- Unlocks* (until 2026): ~$477m
- Fees (until 2026): ~$324m
- Revenue (until 2026): ~$132m
- Pipe Raise/Cash: $360m/$260m

Year-to-date increase:
- TVL: +120%
- Marketcap: +50%

Catalysts:

StablecoinX Nasdaq listing
HyEna Exchange
Fee Switch
Converge Blockchain

*Includes Team & Investor Tokens

🚨 Fed Update

Powell signaled that risks are shifting - Job market weakness is showing up, while tariffs are still adding to inflation.

He also warned that inflation expectations aren’t guaranteed to stay stable. But overall, markets took his comments as a ✅ green light for rate cut bets.

What's this close connection between Circle and sei?

Circle held 6.25 million SEI tokens, making SEI the largest individual crypto token on its balance sheet.

Additionally, the minting volume of $USDC on the Sei chain has been steadily increasing,

Sei stablecoin market cap hits ATH of $296M in August with USDC dominance of 86.68%

US Initial Jobless Claims data will be released today at 12:30 PM UTC.

If ADP employment comes in below expectations while jobless claims come in above expectations, markets could flip bullish

Weak labor data = higher chances of the Fed turning dovish on rates.

Less than expected employment numbers and higher than expected jobless numbers = positive for rate cuts

NFP numbers tomorrow are probably even more important.

But My bearish stance just became more agressive

I said after hitting 90-95k we can see a new ATH

This is now invalid. I consider lower as possible

In other words, there is nothing to be bullish

Three coins with idiosyncratic flows that favor being long:

• Hyperliquid ... the best coin in the market
• Ethena ... the best bet on stablecoin adoption
• PumpFun ... the best revenue-based valuation

Interestingly, $PUMP has roughly the same buybacks as $ENA.
( ~$2million per day at 1.6b vs. ~$6million per day at 5b )

$HYPE has lower buybacks, but is overall the best business.

The ENA chart is beautiful, isn't it?

If CPI isn't a total rug, Ethena will probably moon.

*US AUG. CORE PPI FALLS 0.1% M/M; EST. +0.3%
*US AUG. PRODUCER PRICES RISE 2.6% Y/Y; EST. +3.3%

It's time for large cap break out

Wow