🇮🇷Inside Iran’s military doctrine, asymmetric warfare is not a tactic but a long term strategy.

Footage from the 1990s show martyr Hossein Salami, the commander of the IRGC, explaining how to deal with superior power not through direct confrontation, but by dragging out the conflict over time, increasing economic costs and intensifying political pressures.

The objective is simple: avoid decisive battles and instead reshape the battlefield into one of endurance, instability, and strategic attrition.

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📝Summary of May Fighting📝
Situation in Mali after large-scale offensive by separatists and Islamists

Following the failure of a large-scale offensive by the coalition of Tuareg separatists and radicals, the militants switched tactics, concentrating their main efforts on attacks in central regions. At the same time, government forces, with support from allies, methodically destroyed the infrastructure of anti-government forces.

➡️ In early May, the Armed Forces of Mali, with support from Niger's Armed Forces and fighters from the African Corps of the Russian Defense Ministry, restored control over the strategic settlement of Labbezanga — the most important logistics corridor on the Mali-Niger border.

➡️ Attempts by militants to establish positions along key transport routes in the south of the country were immediately suppressed by strikes from Mali's air force. Regular air patrols prevented radicals from creating permanent bases there.

➡️ Government aviation delivered a series of mass strikes against separatist bases in the city of Kidal. Weapons depots, equipment, and militant shelters were destroyed.

However, amid successes for the army on the flanks, the situation intensified in the center of the country. Islamists from the "Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin" group, suffering defeats on the battlefield, vented their anger on civilians, attacking more than a dozen villages of the Dogon people with traditional beliefs. As a result of these barbaric raids, over 100 civilians were killed.

❗️ The conflict in Mali has definitively returned to the familiar phase of exhausting partisan warfare. Despite the initiative remaining with government forces, the threat of large-scale sorties persists — at present, alarming reports are coming in about the concentration of militant forces for a possible attack on the strategically important city of Ber.

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📝So how's the oil situation?📝
On the energy crisis in the Asia-Pacific region

The energy crisis in Asian countries is currently both the most relevant topic for observers and the most painful issue for residents of this region. The sensitivity of the problem is underscored by forecasts from various analysts already predicting an oil shortage in the APR.

The head of the International Energy Agency recently stated that without solving the problem of missing oil supplies from the Middle East, by July-August the market could find itself in the "red zone". Other experts say an impending energy resource shortage looms in Asia.

Overall, the oil situation remains relatively stable in most countries in the region. But the situation varies depending on whether a given state has reserves and has succeeded in diversifying supplies after the Strait of Hormuz closure.

🔻So how are things in the region?
▪️Among the most resilient have been East Asian countries. The Chinese, for example, hold some of the world's largest oil reserves. Diversification of the energy balance, purchases from alternative suppliers, and measures such as reducing refining and banning oil exports also help the country stay afloat.

▪️In Japan, while there are significant oil reserves, they still cannot fully compensate for the blockade of supplies through the Strait of Hormuz — unlike the Chinese, there is no domestic production there. Although Tokyo observes no shortage, as it finds alternative suppliers like Russia. The situation in South Korea is similar, although they have no significant reserves.

▪️A different situation exists in Southeast Asia. Countries in the region can be conditionally divided into two groups. The first includes Vietnam, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand — here the situation is stable thanks to, first, the presence of domestic production in most countries, second, successful search for other suppliers, and third, energy conservation measures.

▪️The second group includes the Philippines, Myanmar, Laos, and Cambodia — here the situation is worse. These countries essentially have no refining capacity, which makes them dependent not on oil supplies, but on refined products — and they often come from APR countries that currently have no spare capacity. Therefore, consumption restriction measures here are the strictest, and the crisis is visible to the naked eye.

🖍There is enough oil in the region — the main problem now is its price and the costs of finding alternative suppliers. But the trend toward deterioration is definitely there. Moreover, the already noticeable temperature rise in the region compounds the difficult situation.

📌The probability of a full-scale oil crisis will increase if three events occur simultaneously: no change in the Strait of Hormuz situation, depletion of reserves and finances for fuel subsidies to the population, and delays in the process of finding alternative suppliers.

📝Attacks on Gas Stations📝
the enemy expands its target list

Ukrainian formations continue to exploit their air superiority in the lower airspace to isolate the Crimean Peninsula and southern regions of Novorossiya. Online, there is growing evidence of attacks not only on highways but also on gas stations.

➡️Some gas stations in Crimea have run dry, while those dispensing no more than 20 liters see queues forming from nighttime. This affects not only the humanitarian situation on the peninsula. Constant attacks also impact the combat capabilities of the Russian Armed Forces.

➡️Local authorities increasingly call for restricting civilian movement along highways, which clearly indicates a worsening situation. Additionally, remote mining of the Taganrog — Mariupol — Melitopol — Crimea highway using the same drones recently began. On May 29, reports came in of a truck driver killed, with new mines continuing to be discovered.

📌 As gas stations and fuel tanks are knocked out of service, traversing such a long route will become an increasingly difficult task. Blocking 400 kilometers along the Sea of Azov coast with nets is also no easy task, especially amid constant attacks.

❗️Against this backdrop, Ukrainian formations are stepping up activity along the line of contact. Enemy attacks continue to be recorded in the Stepnogorsk area in the West Zaporizhia direction, as well as near Novodanylivka and Mala Tokmachka. In the East Zaporizhia and Dnipropetrovsk directions, AFU attempts to retake lost positions are being recorded, with the scale of these operations growing amid strikes on logistics.

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📝Advances continue📝

On the northern flank of the East Zaporizhia direction, fierce fighting continues. Both the AFU and Russian Armed Forces employ small group tactics. Russian forces, after establishing logistics and relative calm in April, are again showing activity and attempting to advance in the interfluve of the Upper Tersa and Gaichur rivers.

➡️In the north, there is evidence of Ukrainian formations appearing on the outskirts of Ternovate. It remains unclear whether these were infiltration groups or the result of a counterattack with armored vehicles. The route of their movement to the village outskirts is also unknown. The AFU position was struck by drone strikes from one of the recently formed unmanned systems regiments.

➡️Along the line Rozhdestvensky — Vozdvizhevka — Upper Tersa, clashes between small infantry groups continue. Here Russian forces must close several "pockets" that emerged from the fighting for populated areas, straighten out the front line, and continue the offensive further west.

➡️On the southern flank in the Huliaipole area, Russian forces are expanding their zone of control: there are localized successes along the line Volshebne — Luhovske. Assault troops have advanced on several sectors up to two kilometers and are moving to outflank Bilohiria.

📌 Thus, Russian forces are forming an encirclement route around Mala Tokmachka from the north. Further successes in this sector would allow them to outflank the main defensive lines from the rear, which would simplify their subsequent clearing. However, it should be remembered that the pace of Russian advances will likely be affected in some way by logistics problems caused by mass AFU drone strikes on roads in the south of Novorossiya.

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📑 IMF, World Bank, IEA and WTO issue joint warning of global oil shortage

The heads of the 4 institutions assess that the economic damage will affect the poorest countries the most.

🔶 Global oil inventories are being drawn down at a record pace due to the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, and peak summer demand is still ahead.

🔶 Food security is at risk as fertilizer supply chains are strained by the conflict. Many countries are entering planting season now.

The institutions warn that if shipping flows don't normalize, there will be an increased risk to fuel security and broader economic stability.

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📹🔊 Hegseth announces 'Donroe Doctrine'

The Secretary of War announced a new strategic pivot: aggressive defense of the Western Hemisphere, while the Pacific gets "deterrence by denial along the First Island Chain."

The US recently delayed Tomahawk deliveries to Japan by 2 years, citing shortages caused by the Iran war.

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🚨Ukraine attacks Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant in first ever deliberate hit on main reactor gear – Rosatom CEO

💬 "The situation after the Ukrainian drone strike on the turbine hall of unit Number 6 at the nuclear power plant brings the region closer to an incident that could potentially affect populations far beyond Russia and Ukraine," Rosatom CEO Alexey Likhachev said.

Other statements by Likhachev:

🟠 The blast blew a hole in the turbine hall wall, but the main equipment was not damaged

🟠 The drone was controlled via fiber-optic link, ruling out accidental targeting

🟠 Ukrainian forces repeatedly crossed the line of common sense with the attack

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⚔️ US company sends first humanoid robots to the Ukrainian front

Foundation Future Industries, a start-up founded in 2024, is aiming to bring humanoid robots to the US military.

According to the CNBC report, two Phantom MK‑1 units were sent to Ukraine for a pilot demonstration, marking the first known deployment of humanoid robots in a combat theater.

Russia has repeatedly warned that sending Ukraine armaments won’t change the situation on the battlefield.

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The US military has been secretly shepherding commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, with ships running dark to avoid Iranian detection, the New York Times reports.

Around 70 vessels have made the crossing in recent weeks, averaging three ships per day. Before the war, more than 100 ships passed through daily. The US is not providing formal escort, with the Pentagon keeping its distance from any direct protection role.

"Although US forces are not accompanying, we continue to communicate and coordinate with commercial vessels," a CENTCOM spokesperson said.

The operation exposes Washington's diminished position in the waterway. More than half of the 895 total crossings recorded are still using the route running close to the Iranian coast, indicating coordination with Tehran rather than Washington.

Iran, in other words, remains the dominant power in the strait. The US is sneaking three ships a day through with transponders off.

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🇮🇷 Iran restarts South Pars gas platforms after Israeli attacks

Production was halted after Israeli attacks on February 28 damaged gas-processing facilities along the Bushehr Province coast, making it impossible to receive gas from offshore rigs.

While repairs continue at damaged facilities — including the Phase 14 refinery — the restored output is being redirected to other gas-processing plants in the region.

South Pars, which supplies over 70% of Iran's natural gas and feedstock for the petrochemical industry, remains critical to the country's energy network.

Reopening the fields highlights Iranian stoicism, technical know-how and organisation.

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🚨🇨🇳🇺🇸 US curbs backfire, as China builds self-reliant post-Nvidia AI chip ecosystem

China’s tech giants are pursuing custom-built AI chips and homegrown software platforms to break America’s dominance.

🔸 Huawei, Alibaba, Cambricon, and Moore Threads are accelerating Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs) — specialized chips far more efficient (and cheaper) for AI workloads than general-purpose Graphics processing units (GPUs)

🔸 Huawei’s Ascend 910C/950 NPUs and Cambricon’s Siyuan series are already outperforming Nvidia’s restricted H20 chip by 50-150% in tokens per second

🔸 Alibaba launched its powerful Zhenwu M890 PPU, claiming 3x performance gains for “agentic AI” tasks, while domestic players develop alternatives to Google’s TPUs

🔸 Morgan Stanley projects Huawei could control 62% of China’s AI accelerator market by 2026

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🚢 28 commercial vessels transited Strait of Hormuz under Iranian permits in 24 hours

The Revolutionary Guards' Navy says oil tankers and container ships safely passed through the strait with IRGC security coordination and permits.

Earlier in May, Iran officially established the Persian Gulf Strait Authority – regulating all maritime transit through the waterway.

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⚔️ US strikes Iranian radar, IRGC hits back – Kuwait reports air defense activity

CENTCOM says it conducted "self‑defense strikes" on Iranian radar and command sites in Goruk and Qeshm Island.

In response, the IRGC Aerospace Force targeted the airbase from which the US strike originated – and says the "predicted targets were destroyed."

Kuwaiti army reported air defense activity in the area.

"If the aggression is repeated, the response will be completely different. Responsibility lies with the US regime," the IRGC warned, as quoted by Fars News.

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🇮🇷💥 Iran shoots down US MQ‑1 Predator drone — Report

The IRGC says an MQ‑1 drone attempted to enter Iranian territorial waters, where it was immediately detected and shot down by air defense missiles, Tasnim News reported.

The Predator has a production cost of roughly $4–5 million.

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