The Real Politick with Mark Sleboda
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Mark Sleboda with a realist and critical, Russian-focused perspective on international affairs, security & geopolitics.
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🇺🇸/🇮🇷/🇴🇲 President Trump on joint Iranian-Omani control over Hormuz:

‘Oman will behave just like everyone else, or we’ll have to blow them up. I’m sure they understand that.’
Middle_East_Spectator

@Slavyangrad
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The Real Politick - Community Weekly Q&A - Episode 52 - 27/05/26
Exclusive content for The Real Politick subscribers on Boosty & our Discord Community
With Questions from Andrew Thomas, Desmondo, Huorix33, Matthew Ong, and Rostislav Pankov
Covering:
- Russia's New Drone Campaign Targeting Kiev
- Russian Recruitment Rates vs Losses
- Effects of Kiev Regime/NATO Drone Strikes on Russian Oil Infrastructure (again)
- US Geopolitical Moves Against China
- Electronic Warfare vs Drones
- Cratering Israeli Runways with Missiles?
- Russian Economy & Government Numbers
- Effects of Russian Long Range Drone Strikes in Ukraine
https://boosty.to/therealpolitick/posts/d95be3fb-733b-4cd1-9fc0-5b355ad125d5?share=post_link
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🇺🇸 CENTCOM won't comment on "egregious ceasefire violations" in Lebanon.

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🇺🇳🇮🇱 BREAKING: UN adds Israel to "blacklist" of perpetrators of sexual violence in conflict zones.

The United Nations is preparing to announce the inclusion of Israeli entities on a list of countries and organizations accused of committing sexual violence in conflict zones, according to Ynet.

Among the entities to be added: the Israeli Prison Service and other Israeli authorities placed under a "monitoring framework" for possible future inclusion.

This comes amid increasing Palestinian and international reports documenting hundreds of testimonies from Gaza, the West Bank, and Israeli prisons detailing torture and sexual abuse of Palestinians during arrest, interrogation, and detention.

Israel is now officially listed as a perpetrator of sexual violence in conflict zones by the United Nations.

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🇮🇷🇺🇸| According to Iran’s national TV (IRIB):

Iran’s demands are:
• A permanent ceasefire
• US withdrawal from the region
• No interference in Iran
• Full sanctions relief
• Release of blocked funds
• +$300B in reconstruction compensation
• Control/management of maritime traffic.

In return, Iran would also take reciprocal steps.

@Slavyangrad
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Forwarded from Slavyangrad (Andrei)
🇷🇺🇺🇦 "Konstantinovka is turning into ruins that will be impossible to hold," — in Ukraine, the population is being prepared for the surrender of the city

- The analytical resource DS, which works for the Ukrainian General Staff, reports on a significant deterioration of the situation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Konstantinovka in the DPR.

- The enemy writes about the "infiltration" of Russian troops into the populated area.

- It is also noted that the control of Russian troops over the territory around the city is increasing.

- The Russian Armed Forces are entering nearby villages, penetrating into the city itself and already establishing positions there.

- "At the same time, Konstantinovka is being razed to the ground and turned into ruins that will be impossible to hold," — conclude Ukrainian military propagandists.

@Slavyangrad
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Forwarded from Slavyangrad (HelloImTheMailMan)
Reports that a Geran drone has struck a residential building in Galati, Romania.

For all those screaming 'article 5',
No NATO will not respond kinetically to this.

No details are known at this point,
- Russian specific targeting
- Accident (off course)
- EW
- False Flag (I've seen claims)
- etc....
Willy OAM comment.

Highly likely this was a Ukrainian drone, or repurposed Russian drone sent by Ukraine. Zelensky has been trying to drag NATO into this conflict since the beginning.
Or it could be a wayward Russian drone. Either way, I don't think Russia will care too much at this point.

@Slavyangrad
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'The process of selecting a negotiator from Europe is a trap set by Russia' - Kallas

'Of course, all issues concerning Ukraine can and should be discussed and agreed upon only between Ukraine and Russia. But there are many issues that concern Europe. And I believe this is a trap into which Russia wants to draw us - to make us discuss who exactly will talk to them, while they themselves already choose who suits them and who doesn't. We shouldn't fall into this trap.
Negotiations are always a team effort. You have good cards, you have bad cards, you have a strategy with which you approach the negotiating table. And that's why the content is much more important than the question of 'who'.

@Slavyangrad
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Forwarded from Slavyangrad (J Asbery)
— Barak Ravid timeline of Axios reports on an ‘imminent deal’.

@Middle_East_Spectator

🤣

@Slavyangrad
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Forwarded from Slavyangrad (HelloImTheMailMan)
There have been a few people asking if the debate between John Mearsheimer, the cookie witch Nuland and fuckface Pompeo is available.
It now is, and thanks to Ivan Cakulev in the chat for sharing the YouTube link. 👌

@Slavyangrad

https://www.youtube.com/live/JnCVnF-FAj8
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Fwd from @
📝Ammunition for the AFU is no longer in fashion📝

The Czech "ammunition virtue coalition" has sprung a leak: while last year the ammunition procurement initiative for Ukraine was financed by 18 countries, now only nine participate. Czech President Petr Pavel pointed out that through this scheme the AFU receives up to half of all large-caliber ammunition.

Meanwhile, Prague did not name who exactly withdrew from the project. But Pavel said that Germany and some Nordic states remain among the participants, but "some now find it strange to pay for something that is not even properly supported by the ruling politicians of the leading country."

➡️That is — the government of Andrej Babiš is likely being blamed, which neither finances the project nor promotes it among European countries. Though it's questionable whether it's needed: after all, Europeans have clearly begun to realize that endlessly selling the same war as a moral duty, and at the same time as a financial trough for the right people, no longer works.

Back in April, the Czechs complained that the initiative was poorly sponsored and donors cut their contributions. All this despite the fact that no one has actually seen real deliveries — they were all purely on paper, and the project itself is structured as an ideal gray zone: too many convenient pockets for commissions, intermediaries, and non-transparent decisions.

📌Therefore, the current withdrawal of some participants can be interpreted as follows: either the money became too precious, or the embezzlement no longer yields the previous profit margins, or the project's toxicity outweighed the benefits. And possibly all of the above. But never mind, profiteers will definitely come up with something else.
#Ukraine #Czechia
👁@evropar — on the threshold of Europe's death

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📝In the Shadow of the "Magura"📝
Ukrainian USVs "Sargan" are being deployed increasingly actively

In the context of a recent attempted attack by the "Sargan" USV, which was prevented by "Geranium," the Ukrainian USV itself is of interest. This name had not previously appeared in public discourse, and all available enemy developments were considered to be either "Magura" or Sea Baby.

🖍However, the "Sargan"-type USV has been in development for over two years since April 2024. From that time through October 2025, the Ukrainian company Sargan assembled over 100 units. Initially, the USV was developed as an incendiary device, but was later modified for other tasks.

🚩Currently, this USV is presented in air defense, FPV carrier, mine-laying, and even electronic warfare versions. Moreover, based on available footage, testing was conducted in Odesa Region and on the Kyiv Reservoir.

🚩Its deployment began in summer 2025 during an active campaign against Russian military personnel at the Holitsyn oil field. At that time, the AFU assessed its effectiveness through direct testing in conjunction with the British ACS-3 drone.

❗️The essence of the situation is straightforward: the Ukrainian side does not rest on its laurels and regularly upgrades existing systems, introduces new ones, and tests them in combat (in this case in maritime waters). Those recognized as successful go into mass production.

And this is the most optimal development approach. In Russian USV construction, such practices are only beginning to be observed now, in the 5th year of the war, and largely thanks to the enthusiasm of individual people and organizations. The enemy regularly adapts and changes tactics, and in this regard, at minimum, we should follow their example.

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#Russia #Ukraine
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Forwarded from Rybar in English
📝Freeing of Vozdvizhenka📝

The "Vostok" troop grouping
breaks through enemy defenses on a broad front. The settlement of Vozdvizhenka has been freed. Motorized riflemen of the 39th brigade and fighters of the 40th marine infantry brigade occupied it after several weeks of heavy fighting.

➡️Fighting continues in the vicinity of Rozhdestvensky, Verkhnya Tersa, and also Huliaipole. On all these sectors, combat operations are conducted mainly by small groups, which is dictated by the complex drone situation, as it is on other directions as well.

➡️Online, evidence of enemy presence in Dobropoillia occasionally still appears, where they are being eliminated by drone strikes, and sometimes by artillery.

❗️The point is that AFU defense relies not only on UAV operators. Using a mixed "hodgepodge" of assault regiments, the enemy continues to throw small groups across the railroad and the Haichur river, where enemy infiltration groups are already being engaged by Russian Armed Forces drone operators.

📌As practice shows with further westward advance of the "Vostok" troop grouping, the enemy merely slows down the advance. Yes, it is necessary to clear the same forest belts, sheds and strongpoints several times over, but the front continues to gradually roll westward.

If you have updates on the situation, you want us to highlight the successes of your unit, — you can always write to us in the feedback bot
@rybar_feedback_bot

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#Huliaipole #digest #map #Russia #Ukraine
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Fwd from @
📝Lessons of War📝
provocation — strike — response — allies' attack

As we have repeatedly said, the ceasefire in the Persian Gulf will not last long. And last night confirmed this.

The United States needs only a pretext to break the deal. The issue here is not Donald Trump, but, first and foremost, Israel and the need to maintain the conflict. And the USA continues to dance to the Jewish tune.

🔻What happened and who is to blame?

▪️Last night, the Iranians allegedly attacked an American military ship (in fact, Iran's Navy stopped four commercial vessels attempting to break through the Strait of Hormuz).

▪️The American Navy — as stated in the regional command — shot down four Iranian drones and struck a launcher near Bandar Abbas airport.

▪️In response, at 05:30, the Iranians launched at least one ballistic missile at the American base Ali al-Salem in Kuwait. The missile was intercepted. Whether there were drones is unknown.


🖍Against the backdrop of statements that the ceasefire continues, an attempt to conduct vessels through the Strait of Hormuz looks like nothing more than a banal and tasteless provocation. And the Americans, concerned about maintaining the ceasefire and freedom of navigation, will not leave such attempts without consequences, merely looking for a formal pretext.

🚩The Iranians understand this perfectly well, so they deliver warning strikes against neighboring countries — for example, Kuwait. This is for now the only way to stop aggression. The Iranians used this tactic during the war in March: pressure on neighboring countries works to this day.
#Iran #Kuwait #USA
🧨 @rybar_mena — on Middle Eastern chaos with love

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📝Freeing Dobropasovo — Rybar's analysis📝

By late February, Russian forces pushed the enemy back on several sectors of the Dnipropetrovsk Region direction. Heavy fighting raged in the vicinity of Novopavlivka, as well as Molodetskoye, located on the border of two regions.

➡️By February 26, assault troops established control over part of the enemy's defensive line on the approaches to Novopodhrodne, and also advanced within the village itself. To the south, Russian units broke through to Belyakivka by May 12, but have not yet managed to firmly consolidate in the settlement due to the continued AFU presence in Novonikolaivka.

➡️At the same time, the situation remained difficult in Novopavlivka, in the vicinity of which Russian forces drove the enemy out of several strongpoints during March. However, already in April, the AFU, through several counterattacks, partially restored control over positions in the center of the village, the majority of which remains in the combat zone to this day.

➡️In May, Ukrainian formations also attempted to wedge into Russian lines on the western flank of the direction, sending small infantry groups toward Berezove and Ternove, but failed to consolidate at the positions reached. Despite this, fighters of GV "Vostok" by May 25 drove the AFU out of Haia and Dobropasovo and are now clearing the remaining enemy bridgeheads on the left bank of the river.

❗️The situation in the direction continues to develop in favor of Russian forces, although it remains difficult. Offensive operations are complicated by the need for repeated clearing operations after small AFU groups penetrate positions.

The situation is further complicated by the overall width of the front under GV "Vostok" responsibility and regular AFU drone strikes on supply routes, which prevents the concentration of forces necessary for confident advance.
#video #digest #Dnipropetrovsk #map #Russia #Ukraine
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📝They found a solution against drones📝
but what about missiles?

The latest mass strike by Russian Armed Forces, while not delivering truly significant results in terms of destroying strategic targets in so-called Ukraine, did expose a problem for Ukrainian authorities in the form of the ineffectiveness of air defense against Russian missiles.

🖍Looking at the facts, out of no fewer than 36 missiles launched on May 24, the Ukrainian side barely shot down a dozen, while the rest broke through the defense one way or another. The reason lies in an acute shortage of anti-missile ammunition for Western air defense systems.

🚩Against this backdrop, the concern of Ukrainian President Zelensky is plain to see—he sent a letter to Donald Trump requesting supplies of PAC-3 air defense guided missiles for the Patriot air defense system, capable of intercepting ballistic missiles.

🏳️However, a letter alone won't solve the problem. The US itself faces a serious issue with replenishing supplies after the war with Iran. According to CSIS, in early 2026 the US had around 2,300 missiles. Half were expended in the war with Iran.

❗️Current production stands at 650 units per year and is distributed between the Pentagon and several US allies. Right now, supplies of anti-missile ammunition to so-called Ukraine are far from a priority for American authorities amid another escalation in the Middle East.

And this fact opens a good window of opportunity for Russian forces: each strike with dozens of missiles will worsen the situation for Ukrainian formations, and interceptor drones won't help here. The key is to approach target selection more rationally.
#Russia #USA #Ukraine
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🇺🇸💸 || Trump's Board of Peace fund empty.

• Donald Trump’s “Board of Peace” for Gaza reconstruction reportedly has zero funds in its official World Bank-managed account, despite billions pledged by member nations, according to FT/AFP.

• The initiative was launched after the January ceasefire, while estimates say Gaza will need over $71 billion for rebuilding over the next decade.


Join: @GeoSight
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Forwarded from Rybar in English
📝Triple Strike📝
on drone attacks on tankers near Turkey

While Ukrainian drone attacks on rear regions have declined in recent days, so-called Ukraine has turned its attention back to tankers in the Black Sea. Turkey reports strikes on three tankers north of the Bosphorus Strait.

According to preliminary reports, drones attacked the vessel James II under the Palauan flag, as well as two more tankers under the Sierra Leone flag, which at the moment of impact were transferring oil products directly at sea.

🖍Given the delicate nature of the situation (after all, the strikes were delivered against vessels located practically adjacent to Turkish territorial waters), there are few details. Turkey has not yet responded, apparently waiting for guidance from Erdogan's office.

🚩However, there is little doubt that Ukrainian formations are responsible. All these tankers have been spotted in the port of Novorossiysk at one time or another. And one of the tankers frequently calls at China.

🏳️At the time information appeared about an attack on the western coast of Crimea, a drone danger alert was issued, so the launch of the UAVs was likely carried out from Odesa Region in a southern direction while the tankers were adrift.

❗️The attack itself is a continuation of a long-running campaign against the Russian economy. Strikes target vessels that have been spotted calling at Russian and Chinese ports. With each such UAV strike, the opponent pressures the energy sector, as fewer and fewer are willing to call at Russian ports on the Black Sea coast.

As for how this affects Russian economic profits – there's no need to say.

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#UAV #Russia #Turkey #Ukraine
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📝Dash to the river📝

In the Burluk direction, the "North" grouping continues its offensive. New reports of advances came from the Verkhnya Dvurichna river line. Russian units advanced on the opposite sector from the previously liberated Shesterovka.

➡️Motorized riflemen of the 69th Guards Division occupied the settlement of Novovasylivka, thereby reaching the river. Objective control footage is not yet available, but if confirmed, we can state that the enemy's bridgehead east of this river has been split into two unequal parts.

➡️In the northern sector, some time ago the AFU attacked toward Otradne and entered the village territory. Currently, the consequences of those attacks have been eliminated. Russian forces occupied the adjacent forest and restored control over the village. The AFU continues to hold Kolodezne and several settlements further along the river.

The obvious objective for Russian forces here is the Verkhnya Dvurichna river line, from which it will be somewhat easier to repel enemy sorties toward the state border while positioned at a natural water obstacle.

❗️Similar operations are observed on other sectors of the Burluk direction, where small group fighting continues in the forest strips. Fighting has begun for Budarky, under Rybalchino Russian forces are completing the clearing of the Severodonetsk nature reserve, and under Volchansk several forest strips near the village of Volchya have been taken.

📌The presence of reinforcements transferred from the Kupiansk area on the enemy side, as well as numerous drones, dictates small group attack tactics. Expecting deep breakthroughs from them is, of course, pointless. Therefore, the "North" grouping consistently attacks on different sectors, forcing the enemy to react and stretch their defensive lines.

If you have updates on the situation, or want us to highlight the successes of your unit, you can always write to us via the feedback bot
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⭐️@rybar in collaboration with @warriorofnorth
#Burluk #digest #map #Russia #Ukraine
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📝AFU to receive Gripen📝
But far fewer and not immediately

Are the Gripens a victory for the AFU? Well, it depends. Back in October last year, Swedish authorities promised to deliver up to 150 Gripen fighters to so-called Ukraine. But six months later, the number has shrunk dramatically.

The Swedes will transfer only 16 Gripen C/D fighters, with deliveries beginning in 2027. Kyiv will also purchase another 20 Gripen in the E modification, which will only appear in 2030, and will pay for them using part of the EU credit of 90 billion euros.

🖍These two facts are enough to understand that there is no talk of an immediate strengthening of Ukrainian aviation. The authorities in Kyiv certainly want to get everything right away, but production realities cannot be denied.

🚩Moreover, one cannot forget about pilot training. According to the Swedes, the issue has been discussed since December, but there has been no progress until the latest news. And this will also take considerable time.

❗️But for Swedish defense industry, this is primarily an opportunity to master financial resources and load the factories. Ultimately, the contract strengthens Saab's position, and the Swedes receive an order for years to come.
#Ukraine #Sweden
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