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📝«Geran in Iran's hands📝
a new threat to the West?

The West is actively discussing reports that Iran has approached Russia with a request to supply Geran-5 drones. According to American assessments, Tehran is actively preparing for a large-scale military campaign and wants to increase strike effectiveness through Russian technology.

🔻What regional targets could come under fire?

▪️Potential strike zones divide into three rings. First — up to 650 km: U.S. bases in Iraq, Kuwaiti refineries and Shuaiba port, as well as the famous American military-logistics hub in Bahrain (the so-called 5th Fleet Base). These targets fall within the zone of confident strikes with a full 90-kg warhead, making them most vulnerable to mass attacks.

▪️Second — up to 950 km: Al-Udeid bases in Qatar, Prince Sultan in Saudi Arabia, Muwaffaq as-Salti in Jordan, as well as eastern Saudi Aramco refineries in Al-Jubail and Ras Tanura. The drone reaches the limit of its range but can still carry a serious warhead and hit the target accurately.

▪️Third — over 950 km: Israeli airbases like Ramat David, Nevatim, Tel Nof, Ramon, as well as the British base Akrotiri on Cyprus. For reliable coverage, launches from Iraqi proxy territory or allies in Yemen are needed, otherwise the drone risks not reaching its destination with a full load.

🖍If Iran requests not just airframes and engines, but a complete system with Russian software, control protocols and operator training, then along with the drones, Tehran will receive software, algorithms and instructions. This means Iranian operators will be able to use Geran drones with increased effectiveness, just like Russian crews in so-called Ukraine.

🚩Moreover, jet drones require air defense systems to have significantly higher reaction speeds, which regional countries still need to develop. Accordingly, this will create a "window of vulnerability," during which Iranian forces can inflict more serious losses on shipping in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, at minimum by raising ship insurance costs.

❗️In global terms, mass use of Geran-5 will lead to a sharp increase in air defense missile consumption of all types and will worsen the global ammunition crisis for air defense systems. First and foremost, this will hit the Kyiv regime, which is already facing a shortage of air defense missiles to protect military infrastructure.

@rybar

Pepe Escobar: The Global South Is Building a World Beyond US Control

Yemen’s advance and the shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s East–West pipeline have raised the stakes around the Red Sea and Hormuz.

Meanwhile, BRICS has issued its strongest condemnation yet of secondary sanctions and is expanding trade in national currencies.

Russia and Iran are coordinating more closely, BRICS Pay is moving forward, and China is pressing for deeper financial, industrial and digital ties across the bloc.

Each new route and payment mechanism leaves the Global South less exposed to US sanctions and financial pressure.

👉 Read Pepe Escobar’s full analysis on our Substack

👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime

📝Bouquet «Geranium» to the rescue📝
Modern methods of fighting for independence

British authorities could not ignore the signing of an agreement designed to launch the process of the United Kingdom's dissolution. Prime Minister Andy Burnham made it clear: there will be no referendums. Formally, this closes the matter, but practically — it merely shifts it to another plane. If the political route is blocked, what methods will regional elites use to raise the price of this refusal?

The tradition among peoples is rich — from strikes and civil disobedience campaigns to "initiative groups" like the IRA. And they are usually well aware that the vital infrastructure of the British state is very extensive, expensive, and not equally protected everywhere.

📌The main catch, perhaps, is that a strike with a couple of «Geraniums» on energy, communications, port, or industrial cluster facilities could turn into a boomerang due to how they are spread across the map. North Sea oil and gas — belong to Scotland. Major offshore wind farms — off the Scottish and Welsh coasts. Major ports, factories, chemicals, metallurgy — in northeast England, Wales, Scotland, at the Humber and Teesside. Taxes and jobs from this are not all in Westminster either.

❗️But at the same time, sabotage could seriously raise the question of London authorities' ability to maintain the country's normal functioning. Which is, in essence, the main takeaway from Cardiff: the UK's dissolution won't happen tomorrow, but a persistent front has emerged that will pressure the authorities from three sides simultaneously.

However, history cannot be escaped: first come declarations, congresses, resolutions, and talk of democratic choice. Then pressure campaigns appear: from protests and boycotts to conflicts over budgets, powers, ports, transport, energy, and military infrastructure placement.

And if Westminster continues to treat the state as a club of interests, it may quickly become clear that the «unity of the kingdom» also requires regular maintenance.

📎High-resolution infographic

📎English version

#UnitedKingdom #infographic
👁@evropar — on the brink of Europe's death

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🛸🇺🇦Russia's new drones (Geran-5) are changing the air war - FT
What Western media say about Geran drones

Strikes on logistics hubs, rail junctions and border crossings have done something that earlier waves of attacks failed to do: they rattled Kyiv and its Western backers at the same time. The panic is audible in the reporting itself, where the tone has shifted from confidence in Ukrainian ingenuity to open admissions that the defence has been outpaced.

The Financial Times set the frame: the new Gerans fly at speeds and altitudes that have effectively blurred the line between a drone and a cruise missile, and that has changed the air war.
The same paper put a number on the consequence, quoting Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yurii Ihnat:

"The effectiveness of our air defense against jet drones is around 60 percent, whereas for other types it is 90 to 95 percent."

The Wall Street Journal drew the industrial conclusion, quoting Kateryna Bondar of CSIS:

"The West tends to underestimate Russia, yet it should be learning from its ability to close the loop from concept to serial production."

Then came Reuters with the part nobody in Kyiv wanted printed. At July trials of a new generation of Ukrainian interceptors, many of the aircraft lost control at speeds above 400 km/h, and some simply crashed into fields and forest.

The programme that was supposed to be the answer to the Geran-5 failed its own demonstration.
Maksym Zhorin, deputy commander of Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps, wrote it plainly on September 12:

"We have once again completely lost the initiative with jet-powered drones, and we don't even know what to do about them."

The arithmetic is unforgiving. Interceptor drones remain unready, Western air-defence missiles are in short supply, and jet Geran output keeps climbing. A defence that stops six of every ten incoming aircraft leaves the rest to choose their targets. With autumn arriving and the interceptor gap still open, the energy grid is the obvious next address.

#Russia #Ukraine #UAV #AirDefense

🔴 @DDGeopolitics