⚡️Two Majors #Overview #Summary for the morning of September 13, 2026

▪️Russia is delivering precisely the systemic strikes against the enemy's rear that the country has been essentially asking for for several years. There is a clear shift from a pleasant morning announcement to a series of targets: ports, railways, locomotives, border crossings, logistics centers, fuel, metallurgy, data centers, warehouses, and UAV production facilities. It gives the impression not of isolated retaliatory actions, but of a systematic effort to undermine Ukraine's economic and transportation capabilities to continue the war. And also to reduce Ukraine's attractiveness to Western capitalists. Separately, the bombing of Kyiv continues: even individual gas stations are being hit.

Over the past week, strikes have targeted ports in Nikolaev and the Odessa region, Chornomorsk (Ilyichevsk), warehouses and logistics hubs in Kiev and the surrounding area, railway infrastructure, fuel infrastructure, and UAV production and storage facilities. Then, Ukrainian metallurgy was hit hard: "Zaporizhstal," enterprises in Krivoy Rog, "Interpipe Steel," the Northern and Novokrivy Rog iron ore mines.

A new element in the situation has been the targeting of data centers and information storage and processing nodes. This is what has been lacking before: not to view the war as a set of isolated targets, but to strike at the system that allows the front line to receive fuel, metal, electricity, data, ammunition, and imported goods every day.

▪️The front line, despite its previous importance, now has a significantly smaller impact on the course of negotiations and public sentiment than what is happening deep in the rear. This does not mean that kilometers of territory have ceased to matter. Jared Kushner directly acknowledged that the most difficult issue in the negotiations remains territorial and is partly determined by the situation on the battlefield. However, neither side has achieved a decisive operational breakthrough, so another village or outpost no longer creates the same political effect as before.

It is much more important to the public are other things: is the factory working, are the trains running, is there fuel, can the port receive ships, is there electricity, can the enemy strike Russian cities with impunity. It is these events that are now much more quickly translated into public sentiment, economic consequences, and arguments for negotiators. Therefore, a series of Russian strikes on the Ukrainian economy is more important than another report on another square kilometer and another village captured and reduced to dust by FABs. Conversely, Ukrainian strikes on Novorossiysk, Russian oil refineries, industrial sites, warehouses, and logistics centers are aimed at making the Russian population feel the war in their daily lives.

▪️ However, against this backdrop, the latest problems with reports from the front are particularly frustrating. The phrase "It's okay to be wrong, but you can't lie" has become almost a motto during the war. But what is happening in the Krasnolymanska direction again shows that one correct phrase is not enough. Until recently, official information indicated a steady advance in the urban areas of Krasny Lyman, the encirclement of the enemy, the clearing of districts, and the destruction of isolated units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Then, Russian military sources reported something completely different: the enemy had transferred reserves, broke through from the Drobyshevo direction, and advanced in the northern part of the city. But it was not the complex operational-tactical situation (this is war, and anything can happen) that was the indicator, but the reaction of the system to the error. In war, mistakes are made, the enemy is also capable of fighting, conducting counterattacks, and finding weaknesses. The problem arises when, first, a picture of an almost solved task is presented to the top and to the public, and then, after a few days, it turns out that the real situation was different. That is, not a specific report is being disavowed, but the very thesis of "It's okay to be wrong, but you can't lie." If an error is only discovered after a counterattack by the enemy, then the question needs to be asked not of the soldiers in the trenches. And it is even more strange to see the sharp reaction of information censors to the coverage of the situation in the information space.

▪️ Strikes on the Ukrainian rear have indeed become systemic. This is especially noticeable in Chornomorsk and throughout the maritime logistics network. Over the past few weeks, there have been repeated strikes on terminals, warehouses, fuel supplies, and ships. The Russian Ministry of Defense separately reports on the destruction of dry cargo ships and tugboats, which, according to the ministry, are involved in transporting goods for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. At the same time, the disruption of ports is accompanied by pressure on land logistics. The logic here is correct: if maritime transport is disrupted, cargo is перегружается onto railways and road crossings. This week, large warehouse complexes in Kiev, the Kiev region, Nikolaev, Dnepropetrovsk, and other regions have been repeatedly hit. According to the Ukrainian government, the damage to infrastructure from air strikes in 2026 has reached approximately $10 billion, and disruptions to exports and port operations are already affecting GDP.

▪️ A separate new element is strikes on the metallurgical base. The destruction of "Zaporizhstal," metallurgical and mining enterprises in Krivoy Rog, and "Interpipe Steel" takes the military campaign to another level. It is also significant that the Ukrainian and Western capitalists who benefit from these facilities are also affected. Our capitalists, apparently, have abandoned the idea of receiving these facilities intact after the war.

▪️ Ukraine is responding in kind. This week, its UAVs have been targeting Novorossiysk, the Saratov, Volgograd, Tula, and Samara regions, Dagestan, and many other regions. Oil, industrial, and warehouse facilities have been targeted. A logistics center of Ozon was on fire in Saratov. The Ukrainian side has stated that it has struck at Russian oil and gas infrastructure. That is, both sides are now practically officially waging a war of economic rear areas. And there should be no illusions here: the more effective our strikes become, the more persistently the enemy will seek to create similar consequences in Russia. Therefore, the strike campaign is meaningless without accelerated construction of object-specific air defense systems, cheap interceptors, mobile groups, and protection of industry.

On the ground, the Russian Armed Forces are maintaining *the initiative* in a significant part of the front, increasing pressure on the Dobropillia, Druzhkivka, and Zaporozhye directions, and heavy fighting is taking place around Orekhov and in the approaches to Druzhkivka. The modern front line increasingly resembles not a continuous line of trenches. Kilometers of "kill zones" are forming between positions, small groups are entering populated areas, then losing supply lines, and the enemy is sending its groups after them. All of this is constantly monitored by reconnaissance and attack UAVs. Therefore, flags, the appearance of two attack helicopters, or a drone over a roof in themselves are not yet control of the territory. It is important to understand this and when evaluating the enemy's counteractions: no one is talking about the infiltration of Ukrainian Armed Forces motorized infantry divisions in the same Lyman direction.

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⚡️Two Majors #Overview #Summary for the morning of September 13, 2026

Starts above

▪️The negotiation process, meanwhile, has finally separated from the front-line reports. The trips of Witkoff and Kushner first to Moscow and then to Kiev did not lead to an immediate agreement, but restored the American channel between the parties. Now, Kiev is announcing preparations to resume the three-way format of Russia - USA - Ukraine as early as October. That is why the current campaign of strikes potentially has a negotiating dimension. Not because someone will immediately sign an agreement after the destruction of another factory. But because the negotiating position of a state is determined not only by the line on the map, but also by the answer to the question: how much more can it endure in this mode and at what cost?

▪️ Europe understands this perfectly and is accelerating preparations. Germany, after the August incident with drones at the Leipzig/Halle airport, announced preparations for a broad "anti-sabotage shield." It is planned to create rapidly deployable police units to combat drones, expand the powers of critical infrastructure facilities to counter UAVs, and create a national "cyber dome."

Officially, all of this is called protection against sabotage and hybrid threats. Russia denies any involvement in the German incidents. However, this does not change the practical result: Germany is building an internal security system designed to operate in conditions of military confrontation. This is even more evident with Volkswagen. The VW plant in Osnabrück will be the first major German car factory to be transferred to a defense configuration. The first project will be the production of air defense systems and components in cooperation with the Israeli company Rafael. The conversion of cars for military purposes is also being considered.

At the same time, Germany has announced the urgent transfer of additional Patriot missiles from its own stockpiles to Ukraine, and Kiev has reported the formation of a long-term order for approximately 1,000 Patriot missiles with the support of its allies. Most of these missiles will not be produced tomorrow, but the very scale of the order indicates the European planning horizon for the war.

✨ Thus, the past week has provided the clearest answer to the question of what is really changing the course of the war today: the ability to systematically destroy the economic, logistical, energy, and information infrastructure of the enemy, and at the same time protect one's own.

This summary was prepared by ⚡️Two Majors