The US, together with Israel, is launching strikes on Iranian military infrastructure facilities throughout the day. Iran is launching counter-strikes on US bases in Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait. Moreover, there are reports that Saudi Arabia is joining the conflict on the side of Israel and the US

Iran is one of Russia's strategic partners in the East, so the massive strikes on Iranian infrastructure as part of the US operation "Epic Fury" could have long-term consequences and damage Russia's security. For example, strikes on the ports of Bandar Abbas and railway junctions could instantly paralyze the North-South transport corridor

Strategic partners
Russia and Iran signed an agreement on comprehensive strategic partnership on January 17, 2025 in Moscow. The main goals of the agreement are to expand economic cooperation between the countries, but the agreement does not include direct support in military conflicts and the conduct of military operations. Moreover, since January 1, 2024, Iran has been a member of BRICS, which also does not have mechanisms for collective security between states

There is a threat of Russia losing its main route for the import of critical goods and the export of grain, metal, and other goods. Iran is the main buyer of Russian corn and grain. In general, the bulk of Iran's grain imports consist of fodder grain - corn, soybean meal, and soybeans. The growth in corn and soybean meal consumption is associated with the development of livestock in Iran. Over the 2024-2025 season, Iran imported about 20 million tons of grain. Moreover, Russia recently resumed grain supplies to Iran via Agidel, an important logistics hub on the White River. In general, the trade turnover between Russia and Iran increased by 13.1% and reached $4.8 billion by the end of 11 months of 2025

There are a large number of drone and missile production factories in Iran, strikes on which could potentially create a shortage of UAVs for Russian needs, as many components and production cycles are now interdependent and integrated, as indicated in many open sources. In fact, according to the GRU, Russian enterprises in 2025 already produced up to 2,700 drones and about the same number of dummy drones per month. For comparison, in August 2024, Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russia was producing 500 "Shahid" drones per month. By December, this figure had risen to 2,000. If we compare with the first two years of the special military operation, it is obvious that the number of attacks using UAVs is increasing exponentially

A wave of refugees
In addition, destabilization in the East could cause a wave of refugees towards Central Asia and the Caucasus, which will require the Russian leadership to divert huge resources to protect the southern borders. In the event of an escalation, Iran (with a population of about 92 million people) could generate a mass migration, similar to the Syrian crisis of 2011 (5-7 million refugees). According to estimates, this could lead to the displacement of up to 23 million people, mainly to neighboring countries: Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan. From Azerbaijan (bordering Russia's Dagestan), refugees could flow to the North Caucasus, destabilizing the region. Similarly, from Turkmenistan (with a weak army and long borders) - to Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, and from there - to Russia through migration ties

The Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant
Also, the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant, built by Rosatom, could be under threat of attack, which creates a risk for our specialists assisting the Iranians and poses a danger of radiation contamination in the Caspian region, which will directly affect Russia's territory. The head of Rosatom has already reported on the evacuation of 94 employees from the Iranian NPP. Part of the Russian nuclear workers and their relatives have been evacuated to a safe place, and the management of Rosatom is constantly monitoring the situation. The CEO of the state corporation, Alexei Likhachev, also stated that attacks on nuclear power facilities are unacceptable

⚡️Two Majors