⚡️Yalta or Reykjavik?

There has been much talk this week about Yalta and how the negotiations between America and Russia could shape a new world order, much like the Yalta conference did in 1945. However, a more fitting comparison might be Reykjavik in 1986, when Reagan and Gorbachev met and took the first steps toward easing Cold War tensions.

Yalta was a meeting of allies (or "allies" if you wish) united against a common enemy, whereas Reykjavik was a negotiation between enemies seeking to reduce hostilities - much like the situation today.

While no formal agreement was reached in Reykjavik, the discussions laid the groundwork for significant arms reduction treaties and a reduction in the threat of nuclear war - an outcome that, at least in the short term, proved highly beneficial for the world. (It also led to the American unipolar moment which has turned out to be significantly less beneficial for mankind...)

But from a Russian perspective, Reykjavik - and Gorbachev’s broader leadership - was a failure. It is now widely accepted that the Americans recognized his naivete and capitalized on it. Of course, despite the opinion of Gorbachov in the west and the Nobel Prize, most in Russia would argue that it was not mere political naivety but outright betrayal - selling out the country for a Louis Vuitton travel bag and an approving western pat on the back.

The key figures in today’s negotiations couldn't be more different. In 1986, on the American side, there was Ronald Reagan - a charismatic, small-town boy turned Hollywood actor, known for his "aw shucks" persona. Today in contrast, the U.S. is represented by a blunt and outspoken New York real estate mogul and former reality television personality. On the Russian side in Reykjavik stood Gorbachev - a relatively inexperienced Soviet bureaucrat, newly appointed as leader and somewhat overwhelmed by the realities of global politics. A mere shadow in comparison to today’s Russian leader, a man who has held power for a quarter of a century and is acutely aware of what is at stake.

✨Putin is well aware of these historical precedents (and others since) and understands that agreements on paper are meaningless unless backed by "facts on the ground".

In 1986, the guiding principle was “trust but verify”.

In 2025, it must be “impose and verify”.

⚡️ Two Majors