Guys, I'm literally in confusion right now on what to update on the current market condition as well.
It aligned perfectly with my previous prediction as well as the price has hit the $110k level, making it to enter the price discovery condition again.
It also in track with the global liquidity with the lag of around 10 weeks. Wonderful!
Based on the latest fundamental which we see a rising tension in middle east and another tariff news between US and EU, it didn't impact the price of BTC as we see the price remains on the strong level.
We could easily see another all time high on BTC this week imo. Probably $120k - $130k by June and get more parabolic on July. Bullish after all.
It aligned perfectly with my previous prediction as well as the price has hit the $110k level, making it to enter the price discovery condition again.
It also in track with the global liquidity with the lag of around 10 weeks. Wonderful!
Based on the latest fundamental which we see a rising tension in middle east and another tariff news between US and EU, it didn't impact the price of BTC as we see the price remains on the strong level.
We could easily see another all time high on BTC this week imo. Probably $120k - $130k by June and get more parabolic on July. Bullish after all.
We're now coming into the stage when a lot of public companies copied MSTR's strategy to acquire BTC. They use the benefit of NAV premium as a strategy to create money glitch.
Recently, We are now having Gamestop to acquire BTC, Sharplink to acquire ETH and Solana strategies to acquire SOL. Before, there were also TwentyOne capital and Metaplanet.
There is no way we can't enter new stage of the ATH in the BTC looking at these current frenzy in the market.
However, as I stated previously which I have a concern over Microstrategy's strategy which could potentially be a cascading drop in the future as if the system is broken (or the price of BTC fall below their average of NAV).
This action will become the mark of the market top and the end of the cycle.
But for now, I don't think the cycle has reached its peak.
Be aware of this, I don't really care about the technical indicators about the market top. Instead, I'll look at this corporate's treasury signaling deleveraging of their BTC position.
Recently, We are now having Gamestop to acquire BTC, Sharplink to acquire ETH and Solana strategies to acquire SOL. Before, there were also TwentyOne capital and Metaplanet.
There is no way we can't enter new stage of the ATH in the BTC looking at these current frenzy in the market.
However, as I stated previously which I have a concern over Microstrategy's strategy which could potentially be a cascading drop in the future as if the system is broken (or the price of BTC fall below their average of NAV).
This action will become the mark of the market top and the end of the cycle.
But for now, I don't think the cycle has reached its peak.
Be aware of this, I don't really care about the technical indicators about the market top. Instead, I'll look at this corporate's treasury signaling deleveraging of their BTC position.
Although I still see a possible flush to the lower side, I'd rather maintain the long position from current price. Why?
Because based on the metrics, I see huge transaction count and value through OTC in the last 1 week. Also, majority of this position was from the whales buying (at the rate above 1000 BTC). Accumulation keep continuing even until today.
Beside that, we are still not in the over extended rally as well as we're seeing everything is in line with our expectation.
Low Funding rate, Monthly close has 70% chance to close above $102k, and global liquidity is on the rise.. Many countries are in printing money mode.
There's nothing to be bearish right now. Lock in baby!
Because based on the metrics, I see huge transaction count and value through OTC in the last 1 week. Also, majority of this position was from the whales buying (at the rate above 1000 BTC). Accumulation keep continuing even until today.
Beside that, we are still not in the over extended rally as well as we're seeing everything is in line with our expectation.
Low Funding rate, Monthly close has 70% chance to close above $102k, and global liquidity is on the rise.. Many countries are in printing money mode.
There's nothing to be bearish right now. Lock in baby!
I think in the short term, the price will keep bleeding back as market makers are chasing the liquidation of James Wynn's position (Degen trader in Hyperliquid).
Yesterday, I saw some spot premium of around $700 - $1000 on Bybit and Binance.
Some people are following this James Wynn's position, making it worth to liquidate this position for market makers.
Transparency is good but it's now how you play it. Insane degeneration trader, stupidity at maximum level!
Yesterday, I saw some spot premium of around $700 - $1000 on Bybit and Binance.
Some people are following this James Wynn's position, making it worth to liquidate this position for market makers.
Transparency is good but it's now how you play it. Insane degeneration trader, stupidity at maximum level!
The Crypto Guy 💥
I think in the short term, the price will keep bleeding back as market makers are chasing the liquidation of James Wynn's position (Degen trader in Hyperliquid). Yesterday, I saw some spot premium of around $700 - $1000 on Bybit and Binance. Some people…
Now this whale close all of his long position in BTC and are currently in PEPE long position.
Guy is capitulating.😶🌫️
Guy is capitulating.😶🌫️
Guys, I'd like to share my opinion about the recent hottest topic around the market recently.
First thing is the Trump's One big beautiful bill act which is actually the hottest topic and basically it changed the recent budgeting structure of the US government. It has now surpassed the congress as well.
Overall it brings tax breaks for most income groups, with the middle class getting the biggest high-five. We’re talking a 2.1% boost in market incomes in 2025, climbing to 4.3% in 2026, per the Tax Foundation.
However, there are some problems around it..
It’s gonna take a big bite out of government revenue, which isn’t great when the U.S. national debt is already sitting at a jaw-dropping $36.8 trillion. with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 124%.
Basically with this bill, we know exactly that in the future, there is no way that US can pay the principal of the debt, it will only be able to pay the interest as well.
For illustration, this is the US national debt year over year growth https://x.com/TheRabbitHole84/status/1930324042898387315
However, this may be bad, very bad for the US govt but it could essentially be good for the Bitcoin, specifically.
As I always remind you that BTC's price formula actually is the combination of how much money supply in the monetary system.
With the recent increase of the debt ceiling through this OBBBA, it only mean 1 thing, money printing!
When they put more money into the circulation, it will eventually drive the price of the BTC to the upside even more. People are realizing this kind of the ponzi in current monetary system and that's why we are seeing more highlight on the companies forming the bitcoin treasury almost everyday!
I just want to remind you again about this kind of risk in the market in which could potentially be the catastrophe event in the future.
First thing is the Trump's One big beautiful bill act which is actually the hottest topic and basically it changed the recent budgeting structure of the US government. It has now surpassed the congress as well.
Overall it brings tax breaks for most income groups, with the middle class getting the biggest high-five. We’re talking a 2.1% boost in market incomes in 2025, climbing to 4.3% in 2026, per the Tax Foundation.
However, there are some problems around it..
It’s gonna take a big bite out of government revenue, which isn’t great when the U.S. national debt is already sitting at a jaw-dropping $36.8 trillion. with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 124%.
Basically with this bill, we know exactly that in the future, there is no way that US can pay the principal of the debt, it will only be able to pay the interest as well.
For illustration, this is the US national debt year over year growth https://x.com/TheRabbitHole84/status/1930324042898387315
However, this may be bad, very bad for the US govt but it could essentially be good for the Bitcoin, specifically.
As I always remind you that BTC's price formula actually is the combination of how much money supply in the monetary system.
With the recent increase of the debt ceiling through this OBBBA, it only mean 1 thing, money printing!
When they put more money into the circulation, it will eventually drive the price of the BTC to the upside even more. People are realizing this kind of the ponzi in current monetary system and that's why we are seeing more highlight on the companies forming the bitcoin treasury almost everyday!
I just want to remind you again about this kind of risk in the market in which could potentially be the catastrophe event in the future.
Ethereum is having possibility for a rally. There are a lot of catalyst around it recently.
The biggest one is the Genius act.
The genius act is basically about the opening door for the stablecoins to become legal in US. The objective is to absorb foreign liquidity into US through the stablecoins usage. That's why DeFi sector will have its run and also ETH, the biggest L1 in term of the DeFi ecosystem.
Based on chart, it looks to be the strongest. ETH/BTC is forming a bullish pennant and ETH/USDT is forming a bullish flag.
Key level to watch is $2.85k for ETH which is currently becoming the strongest resistance. Breaking above this, we could see $3.4k easily.
If you want to catch beta on this, you can look for play into DEFI token in ETH ecosystem. Some of them are very hot too.
The biggest one is the Genius act.
The genius act is basically about the opening door for the stablecoins to become legal in US. The objective is to absorb foreign liquidity into US through the stablecoins usage. That's why DeFi sector will have its run and also ETH, the biggest L1 in term of the DeFi ecosystem.
Based on chart, it looks to be the strongest. ETH/BTC is forming a bullish pennant and ETH/USDT is forming a bullish flag.
Key level to watch is $2.85k for ETH which is currently becoming the strongest resistance. Breaking above this, we could see $3.4k easily.
If you want to catch beta on this, you can look for play into DEFI token in ETH ecosystem. Some of them are very hot too.
Bitcoin
Price is now entering consolidation area in the lower time frame but it looks like a different story if we zoom out a little bit as well.
The problem in the market right now is the size of the volume even on BTC. It's very low and that's why we have moved in a very very slow price action.
However, things need to be clear as there are a lot of short sellers are over exposed into the position.
I'm expecting a squeeze as majority is in short position as of now with the liquidation price is stacking between $108k - $111k region.
Also, the open interest is reaching out the highest ever which could be a cascading event for the short sellers.
We need to watch this with a lot of patience as the volume is extremely low.
My guess is there will be a grinding slow to $110k with multiple longs getting liquidated before it spiked to $115k level.
Watch.
Price is now entering consolidation area in the lower time frame but it looks like a different story if we zoom out a little bit as well.
The problem in the market right now is the size of the volume even on BTC. It's very low and that's why we have moved in a very very slow price action.
However, things need to be clear as there are a lot of short sellers are over exposed into the position.
I'm expecting a squeeze as majority is in short position as of now with the liquidation price is stacking between $108k - $111k region.
Also, the open interest is reaching out the highest ever which could be a cascading event for the short sellers.
We need to watch this with a lot of patience as the volume is extremely low.
My guess is there will be a grinding slow to $110k with multiple longs getting liquidated before it spiked to $115k level.
Watch.
We're in a very slow type of the market movement as of now as majority of the people are still in the 'wait and see' condition.
Macroeconomic factor is becoming the main reason of why the overall market is in the boring type as well. Trade talk between China and US which is being held right now, still giving us a lot of uncertainty too.
However, I started to see the confidence from the market participant to gain as well. Investor's exposure to global risk on asset is increasing after the previous month's dip which was a lowest point ever since Covid.
I'm expecting a run very very soon but we should be wise to identify our next entry. Unless you're a professional investors, you should be extra patience with the current market condition.
As I said, this June will be bullish but also it'll be very boring for all of the market participants. But after all of the pain that we've suffered during the first quarter this year, I can finally say, it's game on.
Hopefully, we get some good news as catalyst soon so that momentum doesn't fade.
Macroeconomic factor is becoming the main reason of why the overall market is in the boring type as well. Trade talk between China and US which is being held right now, still giving us a lot of uncertainty too.
However, I started to see the confidence from the market participant to gain as well. Investor's exposure to global risk on asset is increasing after the previous month's dip which was a lowest point ever since Covid.
I'm expecting a run very very soon but we should be wise to identify our next entry. Unless you're a professional investors, you should be extra patience with the current market condition.
As I said, this June will be bullish but also it'll be very boring for all of the market participants. But after all of the pain that we've suffered during the first quarter this year, I can finally say, it's game on.
Hopefully, we get some good news as catalyst soon so that momentum doesn't fade.
All of these Israel v Iran narrative has been becoming the headlines almost on every news anchor that I can read.
Please always remember that anything about the FUD coming into the market is the opposite of what actually is the whales doing.
All of this mainstream medias have been becoming a manipulation tool for you to take the opposite action of what's the true things to do.
So when the media is mentioning the potential of world war 3, it's becoming narrative and all of these stupid people will sell their bag according to the media headlines.
However, most money are made during the extremities in fear in the market. Not when the market is steady as well.
If it dips further, I'm becoming the buyer for BTC. Easy.
Please always remember that anything about the FUD coming into the market is the opposite of what actually is the whales doing.
All of this mainstream medias have been becoming a manipulation tool for you to take the opposite action of what's the true things to do.
So when the media is mentioning the potential of world war 3, it's becoming narrative and all of these stupid people will sell their bag according to the media headlines.
However, most money are made during the extremities in fear in the market. Not when the market is steady as well.
If it dips further, I'm becoming the buyer for BTC. Easy.
The reason of why current cycle is becoming the hardest ever cycle is mainly because of the macroeconomic condition. The tariff thing, middle east tension, and a lot of drama in the macro level has shown us that the monetary system is the one which structurally is broken.
However, I don't see nothing broken in term of the BTC's current fundamental. As I always stated over and over again, the BTC formula is actually the global liquidity. As long as the global liquidity is rising, the price of BTC will also rise over time, although there will be lagging in it.
In this cycle, it's way more difficult to analyze the BTC's movement because this asset is more mature compared with 4 years ago. That's why the market is becoming more efficient and that's quite a thing for us, the traders. However, it will obviously going good if we can survive current choppiness in the market.
For altcoins, I'm still a little bit sceptical but I do think it could be a rally which could actually save a little bit of our days.
I'm no longer aped into the low cap because risk is at the unidentifiable level. I'm not willing to risk my capital into it.
Holding strong BTC if you want to save the day!
However, I don't see nothing broken in term of the BTC's current fundamental. As I always stated over and over again, the BTC formula is actually the global liquidity. As long as the global liquidity is rising, the price of BTC will also rise over time, although there will be lagging in it.
In this cycle, it's way more difficult to analyze the BTC's movement because this asset is more mature compared with 4 years ago. That's why the market is becoming more efficient and that's quite a thing for us, the traders. However, it will obviously going good if we can survive current choppiness in the market.
For altcoins, I'm still a little bit sceptical but I do think it could be a rally which could actually save a little bit of our days.
I'm no longer aped into the low cap because risk is at the unidentifiable level. I'm not willing to risk my capital into it.
Holding strong BTC if you want to save the day!
I think we're now entering the most crucial time of the year or if not, the most crucial time in the cycle. Starting from today until the end of the year, we have to be very cautious. Not from the industry's perspective but it's more from the macro side. These are becoming my current concern in the market.
1. There will be the tariff deadline on July 9th, need to watch but it is very likely to be nothing burger.
- As we know that on the recent condition, we haven't seen any sign of significant deal coming on the trade deal and it's kind of worrying. It's also biased on the current condition whether the S&P500 tag above ATH is the price in for the bad tariff deal or not.
- Trump also stated that there is not likely a deal can come with Japan. This is also significant concern as Japan is one of the biggest trading partner with US.
2. There is a lot going on related to Powell's accusation
- I think, this is more of political movement that want to forced Powell to resign as soon as possible because current government in control doesn't like things that Powell is doing (Mr. Too late). However, if this thing escalate quickly, it could be a concern for the investors as they don't want any clash happening on the authorities.
- As per my analysis, I think that Powell is being targeted by the current government in control. Trump's side is like giving the Powell only 2 choice, it's whether to cut the rate or just resign.
3. Above all, what is becoming my biggest concern is the altcoins space.
- I've been sharing a lot of things about my pessimistic stance on the altcoins which is currently doesn't get liquidity in it.
- However, it looks like there is a glance of hope after we see some of the ETFs are now proposing altcoins. On the latest event, we see the Solana staking ETF took place. Although I know that this ETF is not the real ETF, it still doesn't attract any investors in it.
- If after this altcoins ETF summer finishes and the price of altcoins are still in the floor like now, I think that hope is gone for the altcoins season. It will take years to recover.
At last, I'm still becoming a bull in this current market condition and believe of my thesis that minimum of $120k /BTC before the end of the year as our company's base case scenario. However, I also want to remind you that during the upside movement, there will be a lot of events that can make the volatility to be very very extraordinary as well.
I'll give more update when I see certainty in the market condition.
1. There will be the tariff deadline on July 9th, need to watch but it is very likely to be nothing burger.
- As we know that on the recent condition, we haven't seen any sign of significant deal coming on the trade deal and it's kind of worrying. It's also biased on the current condition whether the S&P500 tag above ATH is the price in for the bad tariff deal or not.
- Trump also stated that there is not likely a deal can come with Japan. This is also significant concern as Japan is one of the biggest trading partner with US.
2. There is a lot going on related to Powell's accusation
- I think, this is more of political movement that want to forced Powell to resign as soon as possible because current government in control doesn't like things that Powell is doing (Mr. Too late). However, if this thing escalate quickly, it could be a concern for the investors as they don't want any clash happening on the authorities.
- As per my analysis, I think that Powell is being targeted by the current government in control. Trump's side is like giving the Powell only 2 choice, it's whether to cut the rate or just resign.
3. Above all, what is becoming my biggest concern is the altcoins space.
- I've been sharing a lot of things about my pessimistic stance on the altcoins which is currently doesn't get liquidity in it.
- However, it looks like there is a glance of hope after we see some of the ETFs are now proposing altcoins. On the latest event, we see the Solana staking ETF took place. Although I know that this ETF is not the real ETF, it still doesn't attract any investors in it.
- If after this altcoins ETF summer finishes and the price of altcoins are still in the floor like now, I think that hope is gone for the altcoins season. It will take years to recover.
At last, I'm still becoming a bull in this current market condition and believe of my thesis that minimum of $120k /BTC before the end of the year as our company's base case scenario. However, I also want to remind you that during the upside movement, there will be a lot of events that can make the volatility to be very very extraordinary as well.
I'll give more update when I see certainty in the market condition.
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