If BTC remains stable in range 86-92 in next 5-7 days, It will do breakout at 24th-26th range

If BTC goes up quickly to 95-96k at early next week, It would be a fakeout then price tends to go down to 80-83k

Been a while here

BTC retested lows of $76K as expected

The pump you see now is a takeout be warned

We short any fakeout pump

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What we see over the next 8 months

1. I think Trump’s strategy to lower the interest rate is failed, entirely failed. I have to admit that it’s below our expectation in which Trump administration will be in panic right now.

2. We’re going to see more hell creation if US doesn’t settle with China as soon as possible. Not only talking about altcoins but also the global market in general.

3. Both China and US is having severe effect right now. US credit market will be taking a hit. And China devaluation of its currency will drop as the projection of GDP will be negative on both countries.

4. I think US will fall into recession in Q3 2025 but price wise, current level is pricing in recession already.

5. There is small chance we will see rate cut coming in this year unless credit market explodes. Powell’s hawkish statement is the main reason.

6. BTC will continue decouple from the equity market. It’ll be as an alternative of gold as the price of gold has increased a lot and potentially big guy will rebalance some the gold position into BTC.

7. Altcoins (specific sectors) will show us rally upon the increase of the BTC price. But I still don’t see any reason of why it’ll outperform BTC for a long time.

8. I’m targeting BTC dominance to increase to 70% before the year end. Which is also the reason why we should see longer BTC season.

9. ETH is dead, it won’t recover. we are out entirely from ETH. Now we’re focusing on other chains which could potentially replace ETH. SUI and SOL are 2 candidate for now.

Bitcoin

It's been very interesting look at the chart here which there is similarity of current price action with the price action back at the September - October 2024.

The EMAs are also printing similar movement with the 55 EMA in the daily time frame is curving up after managed to move very close to the 200 EMA.

This is showing s that bulls are now starting to win the fight and once they cleared off the prior high (in this case, $89k), there could be s feedback for more upside push.

Watch closely, it could be that it's now the last time you can buy BTC below $100k!

Hello, have been a little busy last week coming into an event. However, I'm back again here ready to give you update about the market!

This is the BTC 5days time frame and not much the analyst mentioning this pattern over the last 2 years as well.

In this correlation, I connect the similarity of price action during the golden crossover on the MACD MA line at the zero level and when the price reached the 55 EMA as the dynamic support.

From this point of view, we are seeing the price always had bounce on previous 2 occasions, giving us an approximately 170% and 80% gain.

I'm expecting the 3rd time to do the same but with less % gain. It confluents with $135k.

Stay bullish, my baby!

Guys, there will be much volatility for today as the FOMC will start in the next few hours.

I don't think that Powell will reduce the rate as the macro condition is not supporting as well.

All the tariff topics have put us in the uncertainty and I think Powell will take this into consideration so that if (the worst case scenario) the recession come, he will have a significant weapon for revival. For now, I don't think Powell will use the rate cut tool.

Also, the April job report has shown us a good strong number which of course will become the main consideration for the FED. The April job report is not fully factor in the tariff chaos. As it always been, the data that the FED uses always be late representation.

I want to hear more of the loosening QT policy. US10year yield is hiking and we have seen the outflow on treasury at the fastest pace since the 2008 crisis.

Gold's price is also becoming the significant factor here in which a spike in gold simply means that people don't want to bid in the risk on asset.

Beware, stay focus and don't take any unnecessary risk if you don't understand.

A lot of narrative still being built around the crypto industry as of now, especially BTC.

Twenty One capital just bought 4812 BTC worth of more than half billion at the average price of $95k ish.

Like what I mentioned always since the beginning of the cycle, it’s now time for the corporate to FOMO into BTC. They don’t have choice to maintain their wealth and the only exit strategy is BTC.

This won’t stop anytime soon. We will hike more to the price point no one can ever expected.

$1 million /BTC?? Achievable! Might be more in the next 5 years..

Along with it, there will be lots of flash crash eliminating the weak hand and the retails.

This month, BTC will be above $110k!

Guys, I'm literally in confusion right now on what to update on the current market condition as well.

It aligned perfectly with my previous prediction as well as the price has hit the $110k level, making it to enter the price discovery condition again.

It also in track with the global liquidity with the lag of around 10 weeks. Wonderful!

Based on the latest fundamental which we see a rising tension in middle east and another tariff news between US and EU, it didn't impact the price of BTC as we see the price remains on the strong level.

We could easily see another all time high on BTC this week imo. Probably $120k - $130k by June and get more parabolic on July. Bullish after all.

We're now coming into the stage when a lot of public companies copied MSTR's strategy to acquire BTC. They use the benefit of NAV premium as a strategy to create money glitch.

Recently, We are now having Gamestop to acquire BTC, Sharplink to acquire ETH and Solana strategies to acquire SOL. Before, there were also TwentyOne capital and Metaplanet.

There is no way we can't enter new stage of the ATH in the BTC looking at these current frenzy in the market.

However, as I stated previously which I have a concern over Microstrategy's strategy which could potentially be a cascading drop in the future as if the system is broken (or the price of BTC fall below their average of NAV).

This action will become the mark of the market top and the end of the cycle.

But for now, I don't think the cycle has reached its peak.

Be aware of this, I don't really care about the technical indicators about the market top. Instead, I'll look at this corporate's treasury signaling deleveraging of their BTC position.

Although I still see a possible flush to the lower side, I'd rather maintain the long position from current price. Why?

Because based on the metrics, I see huge transaction count and value through OTC in the last 1 week. Also, majority of this position was from the whales buying (at the rate above 1000 BTC). Accumulation keep continuing even until today.

Beside that, we are still not in the over extended rally as well as we're seeing everything is in line with our expectation.

Low Funding rate, Monthly close has 70% chance to close above $102k, and global liquidity is on the rise.. Many countries are in printing money mode.

There's nothing to be bearish right now. Lock in baby!

I think in the short term, the price will keep bleeding back as market makers are chasing the liquidation of James Wynn's position (Degen trader in Hyperliquid).

Yesterday, I saw some spot premium of around $700 - $1000 on Bybit and Binance.

Some people are following this James Wynn's position, making it worth to liquidate this position for market makers.

Transparency is good but it's now how you play it. Insane degeneration trader, stupidity at maximum level!

Now this whale close all of his long position in BTC and are currently in PEPE long position.

Guy is capitulating.😶‍🌫️

Guys, I'd like to share my opinion about the recent hottest topic around the market recently.

First thing is the Trump's One big beautiful bill act which is actually the hottest topic and basically it changed the recent budgeting structure of the US government. It has now surpassed the congress as well.

Overall it brings tax breaks for most income groups, with the middle class getting the biggest high-five. We’re talking a 2.1% boost in market incomes in 2025, climbing to 4.3% in 2026, per the Tax Foundation.

However, there are some problems around it..

It’s gonna take a big bite out of government revenue, which isn’t great when the U.S. national debt is already sitting at a jaw-dropping $36.8 trillion. with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 124%.

Basically with this bill, we know exactly that in the future, there is no way that US can pay the principal of the debt, it will only be able to pay the interest as well.

For illustration, this is the US national debt year over year growth https://x.com/TheRabbitHole84/status/1930324042898387315

However, this may be bad, very bad for the US govt but it could essentially be good for the Bitcoin, specifically.

As I always remind you that BTC's price formula actually is the combination of how much money supply in the monetary system.

With the recent increase of the debt ceiling through this OBBBA, it only mean 1 thing, money printing!

When they put more money into the circulation, it will eventually drive the price of the BTC to the upside even more. People are realizing this kind of the ponzi in current monetary system and that's why we are seeing more highlight on the companies forming the bitcoin treasury almost everyday!

I just want to remind you again about this kind of risk in the market in which could potentially be the catastrophe event in the future.

Bitcoin EW count.

Max pain at $100k. Need extra patience!