Failed attempt to start a new leg up out of a clean -i- up, -ii- down long setup can trigger an accelerated drop driven by forced liquidation of long positions. Link: https://www.castawaytrader.com/2026/02/17/bulls-seem-to-have-failed-bears-time-is-coming/

Traders practicing old time traditional technical analysis based on repeating patterns should spot this. Link: https://www.castawaytrader.com/2026/02/27/es-the-diamond-top-pattern/

Bears argue that the larger move down has not even started yet. In their view, the recent decline would only be the beginning of a –i– down, –ii– up short setup. Indeed, bears could argue that if we expect a wave -c- down it should mimic the impulsive five wave down structure.

For now, we can keep that bearish scenario on the table as long as ES remains below the upper edge of the red box. Link: https://www.castawaytrader.com/2026/03/04/es-approaching-the-last-line-of-defense-for-bears/

To confirm the bullish scenario we need bulls to break over the fresh Monthly Resistance. Link: https://www.castawaytrader.com/2026/03/05/es-distribution-or-re-accumulation/

$ES: Note how well the Yearly Support has stopped the decline:

$ES: Bulls argue that the Sunday low was the bottom of a corrective wave (iv) down. We need a confirmation of that -i- up, -ii- down scenario Link: https://www.castawaytrader.com/2026/03/11/es-the-top-diamond-pattern-got-triggered/

As long as bulls hold ES over the Green Monthly support 6,718.75 we can seriously consider that -a-b-c- down structure through the bulls' lens. To confirm that ES did indeed make a lasting bottom on Sunday night we need bulls to close this week over the Yearly Support 6,814.50. Link: https://www.castawaytrader.com/2026/03/11/es-the-top-diamond-pattern-got-triggered/

$ES-mini: Its "now or never" type of moment for bulls, here they get the second chance to start a rally in the wave -iii- up. Link: https://www.castawaytrader.com/2026/03/13/es-another-chance-for-bulls-to-start-a-rally/

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Claim your free spot here. I will be talking about ES-mini, Gold, Silver, Crude oil, Ethereum and Bitcoin. Link to register: https://bs326.isrefer.com/go/ewhubevent/castawaytrader/

Last week my primary scenario was a bullish wave count that considered a 4.5 month long consolidation as a flat wave (iv) down. I think that scenario is still very well alive. Link: https://www.castawaytrader.com/2026/03/20/es-triple-three-bullish-scenario/

On Sunday night ES dropped down to the next import level of support, the Yearly S3 level = 6,508. Note that the spiky overnight move up stopped right at 6,718, a broken Monthly Support. That means it should now work as an immediate resistance. Link: https://www.castawaytrader.com/2026/03/23/es-does-that-rally-have-legs-to-go-higher/

$ES-mini: 6,634.50 is the Maginot line, the critical level that separates the bearish from bullish scenarios. Let me explain why: https://www.castawaytrader.com/2026/03/25/es-bulls-got-a-setup-to-play-offensive/

In my Wednesday update I shared the bearish scenario


That bearish wave count assumed that the rally we got on Sunday night – Monday morning looked like the textbook corrective bounce in a wave -x- up, a premature attempt to start a new rally off incomplete corrective structure. The spiky look of that move up was the main argument in favor of the bearish scenario.

Under that wave count bears had a setup to produce another a-b-c move down. Link: https://www.castawaytrader.com/2026/03/27/es-the-bearish-scenario-is-in-play/

$ES: So far it looks like the textbook a up, b down, c up corrective bounce that is setting up the stage for another leg down in the final wave -c- down. Link: https://www.castawaytrader.com/2026/03/31/es-following-the-bearish-path/

$ES: 6,814.50 is the broken Yearly Support. If bulls manage to take it back that would close the bear trap of a failed breakdown and trigger a macro short covering rally that would push ES up to 7,300 Link: https://www.castawaytrader.com/2026/04/09/es-bulls-have-to-reclaim-broken-yearly-support/

Silver looks ready to slide down to $55

bears should be able to push ES down one more time to complete an -a-b-c- down corrective structure of a wave -iv- down building a base for the final bullish push higher to the Red Box. Link: https://www.castawaytrader.com/2026/04/20/es-here-comes-the-topping-scenario/

We can count that super strong move up as the final exhaustive rally in a micro wave ( v ) of C of 5 up. Link: https://www.castawaytrader.com/2026/04/22/nq-this-exhaustive-rally-goes-towards-the-red-box/

As long as bulls hold ES over 7,079 even one more push down would not kill the potential for bulls to make one more push higher towards the Red Box: Link: https://www.castawaytrader.com/2026/04/30/es-bulls-keep-pushing-up-to-the-red-box/

The impulsive five wave up looks completed by now. That means that staying long in that overextended rally becomes risky. Bulls can push higher but at this point we can expect a pullback. Link: https://www.castawaytrader.com/2026/05/08/es-the-rally-scratched-the-top-of-the-red-box/