- Iran must agree to never develop a nuclear weapon
- The Strait of Hormuz must immediately reopen with unrestricted shipping and no tolls
- All water mines must be removed or detonated
- Iran will coordinate mine removal with the US and IAEA
- Iran's buried enriched uranium will be unearthed and destroyed by the US and China, which Trump says are the only countries capable of doing so
- No money will be exchanged until further notice
- Ships trapped in the Strait may begin heading home

Trump says he is heading to the Situation Room to make a final determination.

BREAKING: Japan's NIKKEI surpassed 67,000 for the FIRST TIME in history, adding ¥19,200,000,000,000 ($120 billion) in market value today.

Valor is not a real operating business. It is a special purpose vehicle, a shell company created specifically to hold these chips and nothing else. Nvidia also invested $1.9 billion of its own money directly into Valor on top of the sale.

Those 100,000+ chips are now physically inside xAI's data center. xAI is Elon Musk's artificial intelligence company, the one that builds Grok. xAI is using every single one of those chips right now to run its AI models.

But here is what Burry is flagging.

Neither Nvidia nor xAI owns those chips on paper. Valor, the shell company holds legal title. That means $5.4 billion in GPU assets do not show up on Nvidia's balance sheet as inventory.

They do not show up on xAI's balance sheet as assets. They are legally invisible to both companies.

Nvidia gets to book the $5.4 billion as a completed sale and record it as revenue. xAI gets full use of the chips without owning them. And the risk disappears into a shell company in the middle.

Now here is where American retirees enter the picture.

Valor needed $3.5 billion in debt to fund this structure. Apollo provided it. Apollo is one of the largest asset managers on earth with $1.03 trillion under management and $834 billion specifically in private credit.

Apollo raised the $3.5 billion, packaged it into debt securities, and sold those securities to Athene.

Athene is Apollo's own insurance company. It sells fixed and indexed annuities, retirement savings products, to ordinary Americans.

When a retiree buys an Athene annuity, they believe their money is sitting in safe, stable investments. That money is now inside a structure funding Elon Musk's AI data center.

The numbers inside Athene are most alarming.

Athene holds $74.2 billion in reserves. It has moved $217 billion in assets into a captive insurer based in Bermuda, meaning those assets sit outside normal US insurance regulation and oversight.

Of the entire portfolio, 34.7%, equal to $103 billion, is classified as Level 3 assets.

Level 3 is an accounting classification that means there is no observable market price for these assets. No outside party can independently verify what they are actually worth.

The leverage sitting on top of those unpriced assets is 16 times.

Burry's says:
Every step of this structure is technically legal and publicly disclosed. But the entire thing was deliberately engineered across 8 to 12 steps to move credit risk off balance sheets and away from any market pricing.

- Nvidia books the revenue.
- Apollo collects the fees.
- xAI gets the computing power.
- And retirees sitting at the bottom of a 16x leveraged Bermuda insurance structure, holding $103 billion in assets with no market price carry the risk without knowing it exists.

Rest for the Author 🏖
Quality rest = quality content. I really want to go to the sea this year, please help me make it happen.

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U.S STOCK MARKET TODAY

S&P 500 dumped 0.61% immediately after market open and wiped out $500 billion in just 18 minutes.

Then it recovered 0.21% in the next 25 minutes and added $250 billion to its market cap.

It is currently up 0.20% from the day lows.

Nvidia's revenue is not spread across a broad market. It is almost entirely dependent on a handful of buyers.

Burry's argument is about why those buyers may slow down or stop entirely.

He calls it the "bezzle." The bezzle is not that AI is fake. It is that a massive portion of current AI spending is coming from companies that are benchmarking models, testing systems, and competing on AI leaderboards.

That activity is temporary. It will end. But it is being counted and financed today as if it is permanent growing demand.

He says: "They are just flying empty airplanes around."

When that benchmarking phase ends those 3 concentrated customers have far less reason to keep ordering chips at the current pace.

And because Nvidia's revenue is this concentrated even a partial slowdown from those buyers creates a massive hole in its numbers.

Now here is where it gets more alarming.

Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Oracle together have $662 billion in off balance sheet AI commitments according to Moody's.

Standard accounting rules allow companies to keep this completely hidden from their reported numbers.

To fund this infrastructure private equity firms have been buying life insurance companies.

But why?

A PE firm owns illiquid investments that need financing. It buys an insurance company which collects premiums from ordinary policyholders. That insurance company then invests those premiums into the PE firm's own illiquid assets.

The PE firm then sets up a captive reinsurer in Bermuda with lighter capital requirements and pushes the insurance risk onto that offshore balance sheet.

Burry's point is that all of this is connected. The same PE firms own the insurance companies funding the AI debt. The same Bermuda structures hold the risk.

If any major hyperscaler walks away from a data center commitment everything hits at the same time because every counterparty in the chain is linked to the same underlying assets.

The AI boom is being measured during the most artificial phase of the buildout.

Nobody knows what real demand looks like when the benchmarking phase is over and $662 billion in hidden commitments needs to be serviced.

He says: "They are just flying empty airplanes around."

When that benchmarking phase ends those 3 concentrated customers have far less reason to keep ordering chips at the current pace.

And because Nvidia's revenue is this concentrated even a partial slowdown from those buyers creates a massive hole in its numbers.

Now here is where it gets more alarming.

Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Oracle together have $662 billion in off balance sheet AI commitments according to Moody's.

Standard accounting rules allow companies to keep this completely hidden from their reported numbers.

To fund this infrastructure private equity firms have been buying life insurance companies.

But why?