For those who had great expectations from this years Union Budget!

Never reveal that you are 100% loyal to anyone. When people know you will always support them, they may take you for granted. Why help someone who will back you no matter what? Governments or individuals often aim to please those whose stance is uncertain, working harder to win their favor. Hence, it’s wise to never display complete loyalty to anyone.

नीतीश जी और चंद्रबाबु जी कभीभी छोड के जा सकते है, इसलिए उनको खुश करना जरुरी है, जो कभीभी छोड के नहीं जायेगा उसको कुछ दिया या नहीं दिया वो कभी किधर नहीं जायेगा!
कड़वा है पर सच है!

Difference / same numbers in Interim Budget and Final Budget.

This year’s budget focused mainly on employment generation, as that seemed to be weak link weighing on private consumption. So, the FM changed track from capex to wage subsidies. Below is my take on the same:

• 𝐄𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐨𝐲𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐠𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 emerged as the biggest winner; government aims to create 41mn jobs in the short to medium term. The overall outlay is INR 2tn in the following schemes:


• 𝐒𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐦𝐞 𝐀: Subsidy (INR 15,000) to incentivize hiring of freshers Applicable to all first-time workers in the formal sector. Scheme expected to benefit 21mn people with a fiscal outgo of INR 230bn. The expenditure duration of this scheme is 3 years, hence fiscal outgo in the first year of the scheme could be ~INR 80bn.


• 𝐒𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐦𝐞 𝐁: Job creation in manufacturing: Under this, employers must hire at least 50 workers or 25% of previous year’s workers, whichever is lower. The incentives will be paid over four years in the following fashion: 24% each in year 1 and 2, 16% in year 3 and 8% in year 4. Expected to benefit 3mn youth and their employers, with an expected fiscal outgo of INR 520bn. Expected fiscal cost in the first year at around INR 90bn.

• 𝐒𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐦𝐞 𝐂: Support to employers: This scheme aims to providing support to existing formal sector employers and employees. Under this scheme, the government will reimburse 𝐄𝐏𝐅𝐎 𝐞𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐨𝐲𝐞𝐫 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐛𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐮𝐩 𝐭𝐨 𝐈𝐍𝐑 3,000 𝐩𝐞𝐫 𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐡. This scheme is valid for two years. The government estimates that 5mn jobs will be created under this scheme with a fiscal outgo of INR 320bn. In the first year, fiscal outgo could be ~INR 50bn.

• 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐩 𝐭𝐨 𝐓𝐨𝐩 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐞𝐬: Government will provide an internship allowance of INR 5,000 per month along with a one-time assistance of INR 6,000 per month. It estimates that the fiscal outgo of these schemes could be INR 630bn over three to four years. Hence, in the first year we estimate the fiscal outgo of INR 180bn.

• 𝐔𝐩𝐠𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐨𝐟 𝐈𝐓𝐈𝐬: The government also announced the upgradation of 1,000 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐓𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐈𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐭𝐞𝐬 (𝐈𝐓𝐈𝐬) 𝐢𝐧 𝐡𝐮𝐛-𝐚𝐧𝐝-𝐬𝐩𝐨𝐤𝐞 arrangement in five years. While the total outlay on the same in five years is estimated at INR 600bn, the cost sharing is expected as follows: Center INR 300bn, states INR 200bn, industry INR 100bn.

• 𝐒𝐤𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠, 𝐞𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐥𝐬𝐨 𝐠𝐞𝐭𝐬 𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧


• 𝐌𝐒𝐌𝐄𝐬 get special focus given their employment generation potential. Measures include credit guarantee scheme by pooling credit risk of MSMEs, Reduced turnover threshold for buyers on 𝐓𝐑𝐞𝐃𝐒 𝐩𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦 𝐭𝐨 𝐈𝐍𝐑 2.5𝐛𝐧 from INR 5bn, E-commerce export hubs to be set up to enable MSMEs to sell their products in the international market, increased Mudra loans limit to INR 2mn from INR 1mn and 𝐂𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐭 𝐬𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐌𝐒𝐌𝐄𝐬 during stress period
.

• 30𝐦𝐧 𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐬𝐞𝐬 to be constructed under 𝐏𝐌 𝐀𝐰𝐚𝐬 𝐘𝐨𝐣𝐚𝐧𝐚. Allocation to the rural development ministry remained muted. (Credit: Anagha Deodhar)

Very few have understood this game of the government!
You can connect this to Redemption for the Sovereign Gold Bonds!
#Gold
#Budget
#UnionBudget
#FinanceMinister

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