#US30 UPDATE:

#US30 closed below the support area and had a deeper retest. The index is now dipping and might go further lower, but looking at the HTF, it is bullish after the 53,650 mark, so hold off on adding further shorts.

Despite nearly three months of market capitulation since mid-May, investor pain has been unusually mild. The Relative Unrealized Loss metric peaked at only 25%, compared to over 60% in past cycles, meaning losses are far less severe.

This is because many investors bought in around the election at prices well below the all-time high, resulting in a lower overall cost basis. While this reduces immediate financial stress, the evenly distributed supply will take longer to clear out, causing the current sideways market.

Here's the Analysis of #ARB:

#ARB rose near the strong resistance area and is kind of getting seller into it. Looking at the bullishness, price can still push further and tap into it, so take buys in LTF targeting that area.

#BTC started moving lower, breaking that small range to the downside. Price is now heading for a retest of the falling wedge pattern, and the NY session might bring something new.

#GOLD is still hovering over the support zone and has entered a small sideways market. Consolidation suggests that a breakout will occur soon, and with it, price will make a directional move. Therefore, enter the move in that direction after a successful close and retest.

#BTC is slowly rising and shifting its market structure to bullish. It now appears ready to move up to the resistance area around $83,500.

Predicting the exact cycle bottom is impossible, but seller exhaustion typically comes through time, deeper price declines, or both.

This cycle has seen major sell-offs in January and May 2026 and over seven months in a bear regime. While signs of a bottom are emerging, the capitulation phase remains shorter and shallower than in past cycles, leaving room for another leg down.

The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio currently sits at 0.75, above the historical 0.5 exhaustion level. Until it recovers above 2, any rebound should be viewed as a local rally rather than a confirmed regime change.

#BTC is again forming the Wedge pattern and, after the breakout, moving lower very correctively. We have #CPI at the end of the week, so we can expect a strong move at the end of the week.

#BTC.D gave a fakeout and is now breaking lower, with the Index floating between key areas. If the Index moves lower, it will already generate good money flow in altcoins, as we have seen altcoins jump significantly over the past two weeks. Further movement is expected, and it may continue to move lower.

Here's the Analysis of #BCH :

#BCH flipped below a strong key area and forming a small channel / flag pattern and attempting the break of the pattern. Taking short-term sells is good enough but don't try to hold the longs.

#BTC dropped lower towards the key support area and is now reacting. It looks like price had a deeper retest of the falling wedge pattern.

The 30-day Perpetual Market Directional Premium has rebounded sharply back into positive territory after briefly falling deeply negative during the latest drawdown. This indicates that leveraged traders are once again paying a premium for long exposure, marking a meaningful improvement in speculative risk appetite.

However, the current reading remains modest relative to the extreme positive premiums observed during previous impulsive advances. This suggests derivatives positioning has turned constructive without yet reaching euphoric levels, leaving room for further expansion should price begin to recover more decisively.

#BITCOIN DAILY TF UPDATE:

#BITCOIN going into the consolidation after being rejected from the key area. After such strong move, ranging means a breakout can lead the market is some direction with strong move.

#TOTAL UPDATE:

#TOTAL is moving back and forth within the zone; the market is still confused about whether bulls or bears are in control. #BTC and #TOTAL need to break out at the same time for a directional move to start.

#BTC WEEKLY TF UPDATE:

#BTC had a rejection candle from the resistance area and is forming a strong bearish candle. Price is now flipping the support, which might turn the market bearish till the next support area at $73,750 - $74,500.

#DXY attempt to form a lower low and built a double bottom, and now index back inside the major resistance area with a rejection candlestick pattern. Now next week strong probability to move lower up-to next support area at 97.46% - 97.81%.

US Spot ETF flows have improved materially from the severe distribution seen through June and early July, when the 7-day average fell toward -5k BTC per day. Since then, flows have repeatedly returned to positive territory, including a strong burst of accumulation in early August.

The latest reading has again moved marginally positive after a brief return to outflows, suggesting institutional selling pressure has eased considerably, but sustained accumulation has yet to take hold. A more persistent run of positive ETF flows would strengthen the case that regulated spot demand is rebuilding beneath the current consolidation.

#BTC closed its weekly candle pretty well with a strong bearish close. On the hourly timeframe, price is still moving back and forth around the support area. Price has now flipped the zone again and is expected to be rejected from the resistance line.

#US30 UPDATE:

#US30 has gone lower as expected, with a 2.25% drop in the market. Now, the index has climbed a little and is trying to shift its market structure, with which we can expect a short-term bullish move in the market.

#DVOL falling back toward mid-30s — #ImpliedVolatility near the lower end of its two-year range despite #BTC remaining close to recent lows 📉🔴. Options market pricing a relatively subdued forward volatility environment with expectations for large price swings substantially reduced 💪.

Low implied volatility not directional in itself — but prolonged compression leaves market increasingly sensitive to a sharp #VolatilityExpansion should any meaningful catalyst emerge unexpectedly ⚡️🎯👀