Forwarded from Geopolitics Live
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The United States begins a gradual withdrawal from Syria. In the last few hours, US troops began withdrawing personnel and materiel from military bases in Deir Ezzor and Raqqa as a first phase of withdrawal from the country. However, the presence is expected to remain in Hasakah and Kobani.
After the fall of the Syrian government in December, US excuses for remaining in Syria lost their force, and a new, purely democratic phase began in which an agreement between the new authorities in Damascus and the SDF came to fruition. The first agreements in Afrin, Aleppo and Manbij reflect good dynamics for a full reintegration of Syrian territory. However, the expulsion of the Turkish-backed SNA, the return of civilians, the issue of ISIS prisoners and โKurdish autonomyโ remain to be resolved. Consequently, the US will continue to maintain its (albeit reduced) presence in Syria until these issues are fully concluded.๐ธ๐พ
After the fall of the Syrian government in December, US excuses for remaining in Syria lost their force, and a new, purely democratic phase began in which an agreement between the new authorities in Damascus and the SDF came to fruition. The first agreements in Afrin, Aleppo and Manbij reflect good dynamics for a full reintegration of Syrian territory. However, the expulsion of the Turkish-backed SNA, the return of civilians, the issue of ISIS prisoners and โKurdish autonomyโ remain to be resolved. Consequently, the US will continue to maintain its (albeit reduced) presence in Syria until these issues are fully concluded.๐ธ๐พ
The US is beginning to withdraw, agreements were made in Afrin, Aleppo and Manbij for the new Syrian authorities to enter SDF-controlled areas. However, barriers and defences continue to be erected between Damascus and the SDF despite this reintegration agreement, which makes no sense given the presence of the Transitional Government in the south as a barrier against ISIS. Is the reunification of the territories really in the making?
The truth is that there is still mistrust of Jolani and his forces, hence the SDF's unwillingness to completely withdraw its security forces in Aleppo or the fact that the Tishrin dam still remains under its presence.๐ธ๐พ
The truth is that there is still mistrust of Jolani and his forces, hence the SDF's unwillingness to completely withdraw its security forces in Aleppo or the fact that the Tishrin dam still remains under its presence.๐ธ๐พ
In the face of SDF attempts at reunification, the Druze remain in control of Suwayda and do not allow a general entry of the new authorities. In Daraa HTS has succeeded in bringing several groups under its authority but is unable to do so with several others who refuse to surrender their weapons and continue to defy Damascus. On the other hand, the massacres on the Syrian coast have fuelled movements and opinions towards federalisation and even separation from the rest of Syria. These movements are still very small but could gain more support and consensus as the massacres and persecution continue.
The creation of independent or semi-independent states is part of Israel's weakening of Syria as a strong nation, seeking to extend its influence northward. It is also indirectly encouraged by the sectarianism of the new authorities in Damascus, who seek to consolidate their total control with a view to the cultural homogenization of Syria.
The creation of these states follows a flawed approach. First, they would be economically unviable without the rest of Syria's territory and its resources. Second, categorizing a coastal state as "Alawite" does not reflect the demographic reality of Syria, a country of diverse faiths (much like calling the coast "Sunni" as a way of redefining a territory that belongs to many). Third, these states would require the support of foreign countries, such as Russia and Israel, which would further accentuate their dependence on them and the lack of sovereignty they would have, considering that the new authorities in Damascus, who control most of the country, are mostly dependent on Turkey. The division of Syria is not the solution. Syria is a diverse country filled with citizens who have long yearned for change. The solution is not the fragmentation of its territories along ethnic or religious lines, but the elimination of the Islamist cancer it contains and its supporters. The way forward must be the establishment of a secular (or civil), nationalist, and sovereign state.๐ธ๐พ
The creation of independent or semi-independent states is part of Israel's weakening of Syria as a strong nation, seeking to extend its influence northward. It is also indirectly encouraged by the sectarianism of the new authorities in Damascus, who seek to consolidate their total control with a view to the cultural homogenization of Syria.
The creation of these states follows a flawed approach. First, they would be economically unviable without the rest of Syria's territory and its resources. Second, categorizing a coastal state as "Alawite" does not reflect the demographic reality of Syria, a country of diverse faiths (much like calling the coast "Sunni" as a way of redefining a territory that belongs to many). Third, these states would require the support of foreign countries, such as Russia and Israel, which would further accentuate their dependence on them and the lack of sovereignty they would have, considering that the new authorities in Damascus, who control most of the country, are mostly dependent on Turkey. The division of Syria is not the solution. Syria is a diverse country filled with citizens who have long yearned for change. The solution is not the fragmentation of its territories along ethnic or religious lines, but the elimination of the Islamist cancer it contains and its supporters. The way forward must be the establishment of a secular (or civil), nationalist, and sovereign state.๐ธ๐พ
Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1150:
Situation on Kursk front: During the last 48 hours Russian Army continued approaching to Gornal taking control over some positions northeast of the locality.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=51.064665266606085%2C35.21743692931235&z=13 ]
Situation on Kursk front: During the last 48 hours Russian Army continued approaching to Gornal taking control over some positions northeast of the locality.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=51.064665266606085%2C35.21743692931235&z=13 ]
Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1150:
Situation on northeastern front:
- At Dvorichna axis during the last three days Russian Army took control over "Dvorubchyne natural reserve" & linked the positions of Krasne Pershe with Kamyanka.
- At Kupiansk axis since the beginning of April Russian forces approached to the locality of Mala Shapkivka. Clashes with Ukrainian Army continue at the eastern outskirts of the locality.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=49.8716931380575%2C37.606505210809665&z=11 ]
Situation on northeastern front:
- At Dvorichna axis during the last three days Russian Army took control over "Dvorubchyne natural reserve" & linked the positions of Krasne Pershe with Kamyanka.
- At Kupiansk axis since the beginning of April Russian forces approached to the locality of Mala Shapkivka. Clashes with Ukrainian Army continue at the eastern outskirts of the locality.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=49.8716931380575%2C37.606505210809665&z=11 ]
Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1150:
Situation north of Donetsk: Russian Army took control over new trench systems & managed to reach the outskirts of Novomykhailivka & Ridkodub as well as new positions north of Nove.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=49.17633545563217%2C37.87673294715234&z=13 ]
Situation north of Donetsk: Russian Army took control over new trench systems & managed to reach the outskirts of Novomykhailivka & Ridkodub as well as new positions north of Nove.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=49.17633545563217%2C37.87673294715234&z=13 ]
Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1150:
Situation on Ilyinovskaya front: During the last two days Russian Army took control over the central part of Sukha Balka & a series of trench positions northwest of Valentynivka.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.3049982015092%2C37.73591661658752&z=13 ]
Situation on Ilyinovskaya front: During the last two days Russian Army took control over the central part of Sukha Balka & a series of trench positions northwest of Valentynivka.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.3049982015092%2C37.73591661658752&z=13 ]
Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1150:
Situation on Velikaya Novoselovka front: Russian Army made new advances towards Bahatyr taking control over a series of positions southwest of Rozlyv.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=47.97038838656068%2C36.96145530732026&z=12 ]
Situation on Velikaya Novoselovka front: Russian Army made new advances towards Bahatyr taking control over a series of positions southwest of Rozlyv.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=47.97038838656068%2C36.96145530732026&z=12 ]
Forwarded from Geopolitics Live
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Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1151:
Situation on Kursk front: Russian Army recaptured the locality of Oleshnya & secured the border area in this direction.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=51.10731652766451%2C35.170806289787606&z=11 ]
Situation on Kursk front: Russian Army recaptured the locality of Oleshnya & secured the border area in this direction.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=51.10731652766451%2C35.170806289787606&z=11 ]
Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1151:
Situation on Toretsk front: During the last three days Russian Army made new advances along the railway west of the 12th century. In addition, Russian forces made new advances north of Druzhba & aproached to the village of Dachne. The news about the fall of Toretsk under Russian control are not true.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.39882299303718%2C37.847104806421164&z=13 ]
Situation on Toretsk front: During the last three days Russian Army made new advances along the railway west of the 12th century. In addition, Russian forces made new advances north of Druzhba & aproached to the village of Dachne. The news about the fall of Toretsk under Russian control are not true.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.39882299303718%2C37.847104806421164&z=13 ]
Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1151:
Situation on Grodovskaya front: Russian Army entered in the locality of Myrolyubivka.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.307334416813895%2C37.42842270803249&z=13 ]
Situation on Grodovskaya front: Russian Army entered in the locality of Myrolyubivka.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.307334416813895%2C37.42842270803249&z=13 ]
Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1151:
Situation on Zaporizhia front: Russian Army made new advances southeast of Mala Tokmachka.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=47.52278888628826%2C35.81533376378351&z=12 ]
Situation on Zaporizhia front: Russian Army made new advances southeast of Mala Tokmachka.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=47.52278888628826%2C35.81533376378351&z=12 ]
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Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1151:
Situation north of Donetsk: Russian Army took full control over the locality of Novomykhailivka before the enter of the truce. Ukrainian army withdrew from the small village after the loss of the southern trenches.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=49.15064272302511%2C37.890201194257955&z=12 ]
Situation north of Donetsk: Russian Army took full control over the locality of Novomykhailivka before the enter of the truce. Ukrainian army withdrew from the small village after the loss of the southern trenches.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=49.15064272302511%2C37.890201194257955&z=12 ]
Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1152:
Situation on Ilyinovskaya front: During the last hours Russian Army took full control over the warehouses of Sukha Balka after the end of the combing operations due to the withdrawal of Ukrainian Army during the previous days.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.30288176067361%2C37.74261970179097&z=13 ]
Situation on Ilyinovskaya front: During the last hours Russian Army took full control over the warehouses of Sukha Balka after the end of the combing operations due to the withdrawal of Ukrainian Army during the previous days.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.30288176067361%2C37.74261970179097&z=13 ]