Sao Bernardo vs Cuiaba
Cuiaba - U12.5 Shots @ 1.72 (1u)
Cuiaba really struggle with their shooting output away from home, only hitting over 12.5 shots in 1/8 away games in 2026 and that was last game vs Avai where they had 18, only averaging 9.67 shots on the road.
Sao Bernardo at home in 2026 are conceding 14.13 shots on average however that total has been inflated by a couple of teams having a big amount of shots. Sport Recife had 23, Fortaleza had 17 and Ceara had 18. Sao Bernardo seem to have tightened their defence in recent home games only conceding 13+ shots in 1/5 games at home which was vs Sport Recife.
Fair odds of around 1.60 here for Cuiaba to go under, their low shot output should see this as a winner.
Cuiaba - U12.5 Shots @ 1.72 (1u)
Cuiaba really struggle with their shooting output away from home, only hitting over 12.5 shots in 1/8 away games in 2026 and that was last game vs Avai where they had 18, only averaging 9.67 shots on the road.
Sao Bernardo at home in 2026 are conceding 14.13 shots on average however that total has been inflated by a couple of teams having a big amount of shots. Sport Recife had 23, Fortaleza had 17 and Ceara had 18. Sao Bernardo seem to have tightened their defence in recent home games only conceding 13+ shots in 1/5 games at home which was vs Sport Recife.
Fair odds of around 1.60 here for Cuiaba to go under, their low shot output should see this as a winner.
😈5❤4
CRB vs Goias
Djalma Silva - O0.5 Shots @ 1.66 (1u)
Djalma Silva joined Goias from Goztepe as a free agent in the summer and has taken a shot in 2/5 for Goias and 18/30 altogether, notably against teams like Fenerbahce, Samsunspor and Trabzonspor.
Djalma Silva was mainly a LWB for Goztepe and not a LB like he is for Goias so his value should be less, however in his last 30 starts at LB he’s taken a shot in 22/30, so he’s very consistent.
Fair odds of 1.44 for Djalma to register a shot tonight according to my models.
Djalma Silva - O0.5 Shots @ 1.66 (1u)
Djalma Silva joined Goias from Goztepe as a free agent in the summer and has taken a shot in 2/5 for Goias and 18/30 altogether, notably against teams like Fenerbahce, Samsunspor and Trabzonspor.
Djalma Silva was mainly a LWB for Goztepe and not a LB like he is for Goias so his value should be less, however in his last 30 starts at LB he’s taken a shot in 22/30, so he’s very consistent.
Fair odds of 1.44 for Djalma to register a shot tonight according to my models.
❤6
I have just seen this though, some bookies offering 1.91 for this and it's landed in his last 7/7 international games.
It's not suprising he is odds of 1.53 on bet365.
Check your local bookies incase you get some insane value on this one.
By the way... You can see all of these for FREE, here: https://www.statshub.com/player-trends
:)
It's not suprising he is odds of 1.53 on bet365.
Check your local bookies incase you get some insane value on this one.
By the way... You can see all of these for FREE, here: https://www.statshub.com/player-trends
:)
👍2❤1
Last message from me tonight, feel free to send in any suggestions or feedback here: https://statshub.featurebase.app/
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Forwarded from Props Model - Macca
England v Argentina
Alex Mac Allister to be booked @ 4.75 (0.75u)
Yet to be booked this tournament, but this is shaping up to be a feisty given the history between both countries on and off the pitch.
Mac Allister has been booked in 6/30 starts for Liverpool and Argentina, with his last booking being against Brentford just before the start of the tournament.
Mac Allister has direct battles against Bellingham and Anderson, both are combining for 3.62 fouls Won P90. Mac Allister will also have to stop Rogers when he’s cutting inside, the Villa man is a powerful runner with the ball and very difficult to stop, to tactical fouls could come into the picture also
Alex Mac Allister to be booked @ 4.75 (0.75u)
Yet to be booked this tournament, but this is shaping up to be a feisty given the history between both countries on and off the pitch.
Mac Allister has been booked in 6/30 starts for Liverpool and Argentina, with his last booking being against Brentford just before the start of the tournament.
Mac Allister has direct battles against Bellingham and Anderson, both are combining for 3.62 fouls Won P90. Mac Allister will also have to stop Rogers when he’s cutting inside, the Villa man is a powerful runner with the ball and very difficult to stop, to tactical fouls could come into the picture also
❤1
Forwarded from Props Model - Macca
England v Argentina
Cristian Romero - O0.5 Shots @ 2.25 (1u)
Romero has managed a shot in every single World Cup knockout game, after going 0/2 in the Group Stage.
England have set piece problems, they struggle to defend them more than most teams, Heggem scored from a corner for Norway but was disallowed and Quinones scored from the rebound of a free kick that they failed to clear.
For club and country, Romero has taken a shot in 18/30 starts with the majority coming for Tottenham rather than Argentina, but England’s set pieces woes with Romero’s set pieces make this an eye catching angle.
Anything over even money for this is a great bet.
Cristian Romero - O0.5 Shots @ 2.25 (1u)
Romero has managed a shot in every single World Cup knockout game, after going 0/2 in the Group Stage.
England have set piece problems, they struggle to defend them more than most teams, Heggem scored from a corner for Norway but was disallowed and Quinones scored from the rebound of a free kick that they failed to clear.
For club and country, Romero has taken a shot in 18/30 starts with the majority coming for Tottenham rather than Argentina, but England’s set pieces woes with Romero’s set pieces make this an eye catching angle.
Anything over even money for this is a great bet.
❤16
The model is truly a piece of art. I don’t care if I am biased.
It picked up Roger’s O1.5 shots as huge value @ 2.37 odds on bet365
Unfortunately I didn’t get chance to tip it as odds were smashed on lineups release.
But it goes to show how effective the model is.
Sharing in case you have bookies outside of bet365 with good value (even better if you have super sub since England rotate a lot)
It picked up Roger’s O1.5 shots as huge value @ 2.37 odds on bet365
Unfortunately I didn’t get chance to tip it as odds were smashed on lineups release.
But it goes to show how effective the model is.
Sharing in case you have bookies outside of bet365 with good value (even better if you have super sub since England rotate a lot)
❤13
StatsHub.com - Football Bets
The model is truly a piece of art. I don’t care if I am biased. It picked up Roger’s O1.5 shots as huge value @ 2.37 odds on bet365 Unfortunately I didn’t get chance to tip it as odds were smashed on lineups release. But it goes to show how effective the…
I didn’t check non bet365. Kambi have super sub, so does Boyles.
I think William hill might? Worth checking your local bookies.
Bet365 dropped to 1.66 but other bookies are sleeping 💤
I think William hill might? Worth checking your local bookies.
Bet365 dropped to 1.66 but other bookies are sleeping 💤
❤4🔥2
Botafogo vs Santos
Botafogo O13.5 Shots @ 1.80 (1u) Bet365.
Models pinged be this bet on bet365 and I think it's worth a 1u stake but 1.67 on kambi books, I would skip that.
When playing at home in the Brazil Serie A in 2026, Botafogo have hit this line in just 3/7 - however these all came in 3 of their last 4 home games before only hitting 13 to Corinthians in their last home game, they average 13.43 shots.
When playing in the Brazil Serie A away from home in 2026, Santos have conceded over 13.5 shots in 7/10 including 24 shots in their last game vs Bahia. Santos are conceding on average 15.20 shots away from home.
Botafogo have hit this line in their last 3 home games vs Santos.
Botafogo O13.5 Shots @ 1.80 (1u) Bet365.
Models pinged be this bet on bet365 and I think it's worth a 1u stake but 1.67 on kambi books, I would skip that.
When playing at home in the Brazil Serie A in 2026, Botafogo have hit this line in just 3/7 - however these all came in 3 of their last 4 home games before only hitting 13 to Corinthians in their last home game, they average 13.43 shots.
When playing in the Brazil Serie A away from home in 2026, Santos have conceded over 13.5 shots in 7/10 including 24 shots in their last game vs Bahia. Santos are conceding on average 15.20 shots away from home.
Botafogo have hit this line in their last 3 home games vs Santos.
❤21🎉4