Spain v Belgium
Nathan Ngoy to be booked @ 5.00 (0.75u) has dropped on 365 since I tipped it to my group but other bookmakers have still got it.
In the 3 games Ngoy has featured in he’s committed 2,2,1 fouls and was sent off against Iran for denial of a clear goal scoring opportunity.
Belgium will look to sit deep and soak up any Spanish attacks, so full concentration is needed from Ngoy but he’s proved he’s unable to do it with his consistent fouling and his red card.
Renato Veiga was booked for Portugal in the last round against spay, playing in the same position as Ngoy and at least one defender had been booked against Spain in 4/5 World Cup matches.
My model has Ngoy at fair odds of 3.70-4.00 for a yellow card, hopefully we see that lapse in concentration leading to a rash foul.
Nathan Ngoy to be booked @ 5.00 (0.75u) has dropped on 365 since I tipped it to my group but other bookmakers have still got it.
In the 3 games Ngoy has featured in he’s committed 2,2,1 fouls and was sent off against Iran for denial of a clear goal scoring opportunity.
Belgium will look to sit deep and soak up any Spanish attacks, so full concentration is needed from Ngoy but he’s proved he’s unable to do it with his consistent fouling and his red card.
Renato Veiga was booked for Portugal in the last round against spay, playing in the same position as Ngoy and at least one defender had been booked against Spain in 4/5 World Cup matches.
My model has Ngoy at fair odds of 3.70-4.00 for a yellow card, hopefully we see that lapse in concentration leading to a rash foul.
❤4💔4
Forwarded from Óscar Gonzalez Gutiérrez
"Any betting tips for today?"
Norway v England
Norway to get the most shots @ 3.60 (0.5u)
Won in 1/5 for Norway and that was against Iraq and England have won the most shots in 4/5 World Cup games, so it doesn’t bode well just based on stats. Norway failed to the shots match bet because in every game they were defending a lead other than the France game where it was reserves vs the first team, so Norway can be excused for only winning the shot match bet once.
However, England are odds on favourites to win this tie and with any sort of lead going into the last half an hour, it should see Norway throw the kitchen sink at them just like Mexico did. My model also fancies England to have around 12-13 shots.
Fair odds of 2.94 for Norway to get the most shots on my model, so a nice bit of value and the game state could really help us here. Perhaps add england to win the first half as a bet builder with this to get a correlated outcome
Norway to get the most shots @ 3.60 (0.5u)
Won in 1/5 for Norway and that was against Iraq and England have won the most shots in 4/5 World Cup games, so it doesn’t bode well just based on stats. Norway failed to the shots match bet because in every game they were defending a lead other than the France game where it was reserves vs the first team, so Norway can be excused for only winning the shot match bet once.
However, England are odds on favourites to win this tie and with any sort of lead going into the last half an hour, it should see Norway throw the kitchen sink at them just like Mexico did. My model also fancies England to have around 12-13 shots.
Fair odds of 2.94 for Norway to get the most shots on my model, so a nice bit of value and the game state could really help us here. Perhaps add england to win the first half as a bet builder with this to get a correlated outcome
❤4
We up for another bet? ❤️
I have a player prop bet I tipped earlier to my group and the odds have managed to hold
I have a player prop bet I tipped earlier to my group and the odds have managed to hold
❤33
Odds held!
1.5u on Schjelderup fouls won @ 3.25 / 2.62
Even @ Bet365's odds the value is higher than the model states because the model does not use super sub in it's calculations.
Added info, England start with Konsa at Right back. Has some experience there but will not be as comfortable as playing CB.
1.5u on Schjelderup fouls won @ 3.25 / 2.62
Even @ Bet365's odds the value is higher than the model states because the model does not use super sub in it's calculations.
Added info, England start with Konsa at Right back. Has some experience there but will not be as comfortable as playing CB.
❤6
Sao Bernardo vs Cuiaba
Cuiaba - U12.5 Shots @ 1.72 (1u)
Cuiaba really struggle with their shooting output away from home, only hitting over 12.5 shots in 1/8 away games in 2026 and that was last game vs Avai where they had 18, only averaging 9.67 shots on the road.
Sao Bernardo at home in 2026 are conceding 14.13 shots on average however that total has been inflated by a couple of teams having a big amount of shots. Sport Recife had 23, Fortaleza had 17 and Ceara had 18. Sao Bernardo seem to have tightened their defence in recent home games only conceding 13+ shots in 1/5 games at home which was vs Sport Recife.
Fair odds of around 1.60 here for Cuiaba to go under, their low shot output should see this as a winner.
Cuiaba - U12.5 Shots @ 1.72 (1u)
Cuiaba really struggle with their shooting output away from home, only hitting over 12.5 shots in 1/8 away games in 2026 and that was last game vs Avai where they had 18, only averaging 9.67 shots on the road.
Sao Bernardo at home in 2026 are conceding 14.13 shots on average however that total has been inflated by a couple of teams having a big amount of shots. Sport Recife had 23, Fortaleza had 17 and Ceara had 18. Sao Bernardo seem to have tightened their defence in recent home games only conceding 13+ shots in 1/5 games at home which was vs Sport Recife.
Fair odds of around 1.60 here for Cuiaba to go under, their low shot output should see this as a winner.
😈5❤4
CRB vs Goias
Djalma Silva - O0.5 Shots @ 1.66 (1u)
Djalma Silva joined Goias from Goztepe as a free agent in the summer and has taken a shot in 2/5 for Goias and 18/30 altogether, notably against teams like Fenerbahce, Samsunspor and Trabzonspor.
Djalma Silva was mainly a LWB for Goztepe and not a LB like he is for Goias so his value should be less, however in his last 30 starts at LB he’s taken a shot in 22/30, so he’s very consistent.
Fair odds of 1.44 for Djalma to register a shot tonight according to my models.
Djalma Silva - O0.5 Shots @ 1.66 (1u)
Djalma Silva joined Goias from Goztepe as a free agent in the summer and has taken a shot in 2/5 for Goias and 18/30 altogether, notably against teams like Fenerbahce, Samsunspor and Trabzonspor.
Djalma Silva was mainly a LWB for Goztepe and not a LB like he is for Goias so his value should be less, however in his last 30 starts at LB he’s taken a shot in 22/30, so he’s very consistent.
Fair odds of 1.44 for Djalma to register a shot tonight according to my models.
❤6
I have just seen this though, some bookies offering 1.91 for this and it's landed in his last 7/7 international games.
It's not suprising he is odds of 1.53 on bet365.
Check your local bookies incase you get some insane value on this one.
By the way... You can see all of these for FREE, here: https://www.statshub.com/player-trends
:)
It's not suprising he is odds of 1.53 on bet365.
Check your local bookies incase you get some insane value on this one.
By the way... You can see all of these for FREE, here: https://www.statshub.com/player-trends
:)
👍2❤1
Last message from me tonight, feel free to send in any suggestions or feedback here: https://statshub.featurebase.app/
statshub.featurebase.app
Feedback - statshub
Give statshub feedback on how they could improve their product.
Forwarded from Props Model - Macca
England v Argentina
Alex Mac Allister to be booked @ 4.75 (0.75u)
Yet to be booked this tournament, but this is shaping up to be a feisty given the history between both countries on and off the pitch.
Mac Allister has been booked in 6/30 starts for Liverpool and Argentina, with his last booking being against Brentford just before the start of the tournament.
Mac Allister has direct battles against Bellingham and Anderson, both are combining for 3.62 fouls Won P90. Mac Allister will also have to stop Rogers when he’s cutting inside, the Villa man is a powerful runner with the ball and very difficult to stop, to tactical fouls could come into the picture also
Alex Mac Allister to be booked @ 4.75 (0.75u)
Yet to be booked this tournament, but this is shaping up to be a feisty given the history between both countries on and off the pitch.
Mac Allister has been booked in 6/30 starts for Liverpool and Argentina, with his last booking being against Brentford just before the start of the tournament.
Mac Allister has direct battles against Bellingham and Anderson, both are combining for 3.62 fouls Won P90. Mac Allister will also have to stop Rogers when he’s cutting inside, the Villa man is a powerful runner with the ball and very difficult to stop, to tactical fouls could come into the picture also
❤1
Forwarded from Props Model - Macca
England v Argentina
Cristian Romero - O0.5 Shots @ 2.25 (1u)
Romero has managed a shot in every single World Cup knockout game, after going 0/2 in the Group Stage.
England have set piece problems, they struggle to defend them more than most teams, Heggem scored from a corner for Norway but was disallowed and Quinones scored from the rebound of a free kick that they failed to clear.
For club and country, Romero has taken a shot in 18/30 starts with the majority coming for Tottenham rather than Argentina, but England’s set pieces woes with Romero’s set pieces make this an eye catching angle.
Anything over even money for this is a great bet.
Cristian Romero - O0.5 Shots @ 2.25 (1u)
Romero has managed a shot in every single World Cup knockout game, after going 0/2 in the Group Stage.
England have set piece problems, they struggle to defend them more than most teams, Heggem scored from a corner for Norway but was disallowed and Quinones scored from the rebound of a free kick that they failed to clear.
For club and country, Romero has taken a shot in 18/30 starts with the majority coming for Tottenham rather than Argentina, but England’s set pieces woes with Romero’s set pieces make this an eye catching angle.
Anything over even money for this is a great bet.
❤16