Argentina vs Egypt
Enzo Fernandez O1.5 Shots @ 2.00 (1u)
We were on Enzo’s shot line vs Cape Verde and he easily cleared it, hitting 4 shots and 2 against Austria in the final group stage game.
Enzo has had two or more shots in 17/30 starts for club and country, Argentina should see most of the ball with Egypt looking to soak up pressure and counter. The longer the scoreline stays level or Egypt are winning, should see more desperation from Argentina which means more shots from distance.
Enzo Fernandez O1.5 Shots @ 2.00 (1u)
We were on Enzo’s shot line vs Cape Verde and he easily cleared it, hitting 4 shots and 2 against Austria in the final group stage game.
Enzo has had two or more shots in 17/30 starts for club and country, Argentina should see most of the ball with Egypt looking to soak up pressure and counter. The longer the scoreline stays level or Egypt are winning, should see more desperation from Argentina which means more shots from distance.
👍9❤8🍾2
Argentina vs Egypt
Egypt - O7.5 Shots @ 1.83 (1u) Or 1.95 Kambi books
Feel this line is too low for Egypt, they’ve easily cleared this line in all four World Cup games and Argentina conceded 16 shots vs Cape Verde.
Cape Verde have laid the blueprint for the underdogs how to get at the favourites and if Egypt, who are quite good on the counter attack, can do the same as Cape Verde did with much more quality players like Salah, Marmoush, Ziko, Ashour and Trezeguet, Egypt could hit double figures here especially if they’re a goal down with 10-15 minutes to go.
1.78 for fair odds here on the model compared to the 1.83 given on bet365, thats better if you can get Kambi instead, small bit of value but Egypt hitting this line in 4/4 should give it a bit more value.
Another interesting angle could be pairing this with Argentina to win the first half since Egypt would then rack up the shots in the second.
Egypt - O7.5 Shots @ 1.83 (1u) Or 1.95 Kambi books
Feel this line is too low for Egypt, they’ve easily cleared this line in all four World Cup games and Argentina conceded 16 shots vs Cape Verde.
Cape Verde have laid the blueprint for the underdogs how to get at the favourites and if Egypt, who are quite good on the counter attack, can do the same as Cape Verde did with much more quality players like Salah, Marmoush, Ziko, Ashour and Trezeguet, Egypt could hit double figures here especially if they’re a goal down with 10-15 minutes to go.
1.78 for fair odds here on the model compared to the 1.83 given on bet365, thats better if you can get Kambi instead, small bit of value but Egypt hitting this line in 4/4 should give it a bit more value.
Another interesting angle could be pairing this with Argentina to win the first half since Egypt would then rack up the shots in the second.
❤15
Forwarded from Ekinci44
He is insisting on not taking a shot unfortunately
Switzerland vs Colombia
U25.5 Shots @ 1.80 (1u)
This has won in 3/4 for Switzerland, the only time not being when they battered Qatar’s goal on MD1, this has won in 1/4 for Colombia however the stakes are higher now and should see a tight affair here.
Switzerland’s last 20 international games see them average 21.15 match shots and Colombia average 22.35. It’s hard to see where Switzerland’s shots come from outside of Embolo and N’Doye, with head coach Murat Yakin opting for 4 central midfielders in a 4231, with Jashari and Rieder both push up into attacking positions.
Model rates the fair odds a line lower at least
U25.5 Shots @ 1.80 (1u)
This has won in 3/4 for Switzerland, the only time not being when they battered Qatar’s goal on MD1, this has won in 1/4 for Colombia however the stakes are higher now and should see a tight affair here.
Switzerland’s last 20 international games see them average 21.15 match shots and Colombia average 22.35. It’s hard to see where Switzerland’s shots come from outside of Embolo and N’Doye, with head coach Murat Yakin opting for 4 central midfielders in a 4231, with Jashari and Rieder both push up into attacking positions.
Model rates the fair odds a line lower at least
🔥8🍾3👏1
Forwarded from Óscar Gonzalez Gutiérrez
Are there any bets for today?
🙏14🔥5❤2👏2🎉2🤯1
I have shared one bet, if the odds hold I will post it here. Model says around a 50/50 chance but were getting 2.37-2.7 on some books. bear with me
❤17👏3
France vs Morocco
Adrien Rabiot O1.5 Shots @ 2.7 Kambi, 2.37 bet365,2.55 unibet,2.5 hills, coral, spreadex (1.25u)
Rabiot has started to find his shooting boots for France and he won for us last time so willing to go again at a nice price.
Not really much more to add from the last write-up I did on Rabiot, this has won in his last 2 World Cup starts and when playing LCM/LCDM he’s registered two shots in 15/30 for Club and Country (1.72 P90).
For country he's had 2 or more shots in 9/20 (Pictured). Hit rates do not hold great predictive power so it is purely additive information, but the model is saying around 2.0 for the fair odds tonight.
Adrien Rabiot O1.5 Shots @ 2.7 Kambi, 2.37 bet365,2.55 unibet,2.5 hills, coral, spreadex (1.25u)
Rabiot has started to find his shooting boots for France and he won for us last time so willing to go again at a nice price.
Not really much more to add from the last write-up I did on Rabiot, this has won in his last 2 World Cup starts and when playing LCM/LCDM he’s registered two shots in 15/30 for Club and Country (1.72 P90).
For country he's had 2 or more shots in 9/20 (Pictured). Hit rates do not hold great predictive power so it is purely additive information, but the model is saying around 2.0 for the fair odds tonight.
❤22
Spain v Belgium
Nathan Ngoy to be booked @ 5.00 (0.75u) has dropped on 365 since I tipped it to my group but other bookmakers have still got it.
In the 3 games Ngoy has featured in he’s committed 2,2,1 fouls and was sent off against Iran for denial of a clear goal scoring opportunity.
Belgium will look to sit deep and soak up any Spanish attacks, so full concentration is needed from Ngoy but he’s proved he’s unable to do it with his consistent fouling and his red card.
Renato Veiga was booked for Portugal in the last round against spay, playing in the same position as Ngoy and at least one defender had been booked against Spain in 4/5 World Cup matches.
My model has Ngoy at fair odds of 3.70-4.00 for a yellow card, hopefully we see that lapse in concentration leading to a rash foul.
Nathan Ngoy to be booked @ 5.00 (0.75u) has dropped on 365 since I tipped it to my group but other bookmakers have still got it.
In the 3 games Ngoy has featured in he’s committed 2,2,1 fouls and was sent off against Iran for denial of a clear goal scoring opportunity.
Belgium will look to sit deep and soak up any Spanish attacks, so full concentration is needed from Ngoy but he’s proved he’s unable to do it with his consistent fouling and his red card.
Renato Veiga was booked for Portugal in the last round against spay, playing in the same position as Ngoy and at least one defender had been booked against Spain in 4/5 World Cup matches.
My model has Ngoy at fair odds of 3.70-4.00 for a yellow card, hopefully we see that lapse in concentration leading to a rash foul.
❤4💔4
Forwarded from Óscar Gonzalez Gutiérrez
"Any betting tips for today?"
Norway v England
Norway to get the most shots @ 3.60 (0.5u)
Won in 1/5 for Norway and that was against Iraq and England have won the most shots in 4/5 World Cup games, so it doesn’t bode well just based on stats. Norway failed to the shots match bet because in every game they were defending a lead other than the France game where it was reserves vs the first team, so Norway can be excused for only winning the shot match bet once.
However, England are odds on favourites to win this tie and with any sort of lead going into the last half an hour, it should see Norway throw the kitchen sink at them just like Mexico did. My model also fancies England to have around 12-13 shots.
Fair odds of 2.94 for Norway to get the most shots on my model, so a nice bit of value and the game state could really help us here. Perhaps add england to win the first half as a bet builder with this to get a correlated outcome
Norway to get the most shots @ 3.60 (0.5u)
Won in 1/5 for Norway and that was against Iraq and England have won the most shots in 4/5 World Cup games, so it doesn’t bode well just based on stats. Norway failed to the shots match bet because in every game they were defending a lead other than the France game where it was reserves vs the first team, so Norway can be excused for only winning the shot match bet once.
However, England are odds on favourites to win this tie and with any sort of lead going into the last half an hour, it should see Norway throw the kitchen sink at them just like Mexico did. My model also fancies England to have around 12-13 shots.
Fair odds of 2.94 for Norway to get the most shots on my model, so a nice bit of value and the game state could really help us here. Perhaps add england to win the first half as a bet builder with this to get a correlated outcome
❤4
We up for another bet? ❤️
I have a player prop bet I tipped earlier to my group and the odds have managed to hold
I have a player prop bet I tipped earlier to my group and the odds have managed to hold
❤33
Odds held!
1.5u on Schjelderup fouls won @ 3.25 / 2.62
Even @ Bet365's odds the value is higher than the model states because the model does not use super sub in it's calculations.
Added info, England start with Konsa at Right back. Has some experience there but will not be as comfortable as playing CB.
1.5u on Schjelderup fouls won @ 3.25 / 2.62
Even @ Bet365's odds the value is higher than the model states because the model does not use super sub in it's calculations.
Added info, England start with Konsa at Right back. Has some experience there but will not be as comfortable as playing CB.
❤6
Sao Bernardo vs Cuiaba
Cuiaba - U12.5 Shots @ 1.72 (1u)
Cuiaba really struggle with their shooting output away from home, only hitting over 12.5 shots in 1/8 away games in 2026 and that was last game vs Avai where they had 18, only averaging 9.67 shots on the road.
Sao Bernardo at home in 2026 are conceding 14.13 shots on average however that total has been inflated by a couple of teams having a big amount of shots. Sport Recife had 23, Fortaleza had 17 and Ceara had 18. Sao Bernardo seem to have tightened their defence in recent home games only conceding 13+ shots in 1/5 games at home which was vs Sport Recife.
Fair odds of around 1.60 here for Cuiaba to go under, their low shot output should see this as a winner.
Cuiaba - U12.5 Shots @ 1.72 (1u)
Cuiaba really struggle with their shooting output away from home, only hitting over 12.5 shots in 1/8 away games in 2026 and that was last game vs Avai where they had 18, only averaging 9.67 shots on the road.
Sao Bernardo at home in 2026 are conceding 14.13 shots on average however that total has been inflated by a couple of teams having a big amount of shots. Sport Recife had 23, Fortaleza had 17 and Ceara had 18. Sao Bernardo seem to have tightened their defence in recent home games only conceding 13+ shots in 1/5 games at home which was vs Sport Recife.
Fair odds of around 1.60 here for Cuiaba to go under, their low shot output should see this as a winner.
😈5❤4