Had this wrote up, dropped on bet365 but available at nice odds in the exchange and some alt books. I’ve put an order in for £50 @ 1.88 (might have to drop my asking price now I’ve shared this :D)
Mexico vs England
Julian Quinones - O0.5 Shots on Target @ 1.7+ (1u)
Quite easily Mexico’s best player this tournament, Quinones has hit the target in every single World Cup game
England have conceded a shot on target against the opponents left sided attacker in 3/4 World Cup games, with Baturina, Rodriguez and Cipenga all hitting the target and with Reece James being injured.
Mexico vs England
Julian Quinones - O0.5 Shots on Target @ 1.7+ (1u)
Quite easily Mexico’s best player this tournament, Quinones has hit the target in every single World Cup game
England have conceded a shot on target against the opponents left sided attacker in 3/4 World Cup games, with Baturina, Rodriguez and Cipenga all hitting the target and with Reece James being injured.
❤12
Where’s the value?
Anonymous Poll
23%
England
11%
Draw
11%
Mexico
33%
England Qualify
16%
Mexico Qualify
12%
None ya fooooool
❤1
Gordon price for a SOT looks good. All below have super sub too
2.0 Betfair
1.91 Sky
1.9 Kambi (With ET)
1.8 Bet365 (With ET)
1u
2.0 Betfair
1.91 Sky
1.9 Kambi (With ET)
1.8 Bet365 (With ET)
1u
❤12🍾6
✅Quinones SOT @ 1.8 (1u)
✅ Gordon SOT @ 2.0 (1u)
✅ Brazil Bet Builder @ 2.15 (1u)
&
✅ England Qualify as chosen by the poll (not a tip, but we’ll celebrate 🥳)
We’ll take that
✅ Gordon SOT @ 2.0 (1u)
✅ Brazil Bet Builder @ 2.15 (1u)
&
✅ England Qualify as chosen by the poll (not a tip, but we’ll celebrate 🥳)
We’ll take that
❤21🔥5
Argentina vs Egypt
Enzo Fernandez O1.5 Shots @ 2.00 (1u)
We were on Enzo’s shot line vs Cape Verde and he easily cleared it, hitting 4 shots and 2 against Austria in the final group stage game.
Enzo has had two or more shots in 17/30 starts for club and country, Argentina should see most of the ball with Egypt looking to soak up pressure and counter. The longer the scoreline stays level or Egypt are winning, should see more desperation from Argentina which means more shots from distance.
Enzo Fernandez O1.5 Shots @ 2.00 (1u)
We were on Enzo’s shot line vs Cape Verde and he easily cleared it, hitting 4 shots and 2 against Austria in the final group stage game.
Enzo has had two or more shots in 17/30 starts for club and country, Argentina should see most of the ball with Egypt looking to soak up pressure and counter. The longer the scoreline stays level or Egypt are winning, should see more desperation from Argentina which means more shots from distance.
👍9❤8🍾2
Argentina vs Egypt
Egypt - O7.5 Shots @ 1.83 (1u) Or 1.95 Kambi books
Feel this line is too low for Egypt, they’ve easily cleared this line in all four World Cup games and Argentina conceded 16 shots vs Cape Verde.
Cape Verde have laid the blueprint for the underdogs how to get at the favourites and if Egypt, who are quite good on the counter attack, can do the same as Cape Verde did with much more quality players like Salah, Marmoush, Ziko, Ashour and Trezeguet, Egypt could hit double figures here especially if they’re a goal down with 10-15 minutes to go.
1.78 for fair odds here on the model compared to the 1.83 given on bet365, thats better if you can get Kambi instead, small bit of value but Egypt hitting this line in 4/4 should give it a bit more value.
Another interesting angle could be pairing this with Argentina to win the first half since Egypt would then rack up the shots in the second.
Egypt - O7.5 Shots @ 1.83 (1u) Or 1.95 Kambi books
Feel this line is too low for Egypt, they’ve easily cleared this line in all four World Cup games and Argentina conceded 16 shots vs Cape Verde.
Cape Verde have laid the blueprint for the underdogs how to get at the favourites and if Egypt, who are quite good on the counter attack, can do the same as Cape Verde did with much more quality players like Salah, Marmoush, Ziko, Ashour and Trezeguet, Egypt could hit double figures here especially if they’re a goal down with 10-15 minutes to go.
1.78 for fair odds here on the model compared to the 1.83 given on bet365, thats better if you can get Kambi instead, small bit of value but Egypt hitting this line in 4/4 should give it a bit more value.
Another interesting angle could be pairing this with Argentina to win the first half since Egypt would then rack up the shots in the second.
❤15
Forwarded from Ekinci44
He is insisting on not taking a shot unfortunately
Switzerland vs Colombia
U25.5 Shots @ 1.80 (1u)
This has won in 3/4 for Switzerland, the only time not being when they battered Qatar’s goal on MD1, this has won in 1/4 for Colombia however the stakes are higher now and should see a tight affair here.
Switzerland’s last 20 international games see them average 21.15 match shots and Colombia average 22.35. It’s hard to see where Switzerland’s shots come from outside of Embolo and N’Doye, with head coach Murat Yakin opting for 4 central midfielders in a 4231, with Jashari and Rieder both push up into attacking positions.
Model rates the fair odds a line lower at least
U25.5 Shots @ 1.80 (1u)
This has won in 3/4 for Switzerland, the only time not being when they battered Qatar’s goal on MD1, this has won in 1/4 for Colombia however the stakes are higher now and should see a tight affair here.
Switzerland’s last 20 international games see them average 21.15 match shots and Colombia average 22.35. It’s hard to see where Switzerland’s shots come from outside of Embolo and N’Doye, with head coach Murat Yakin opting for 4 central midfielders in a 4231, with Jashari and Rieder both push up into attacking positions.
Model rates the fair odds a line lower at least
🔥8🍾3👏1
Forwarded from Óscar Gonzalez Gutiérrez
Are there any bets for today?
🙏14🔥5❤2👏2🎉2🤯1
I have shared one bet, if the odds hold I will post it here. Model says around a 50/50 chance but were getting 2.37-2.7 on some books. bear with me
❤17👏3
France vs Morocco
Adrien Rabiot O1.5 Shots @ 2.7 Kambi, 2.37 bet365,2.55 unibet,2.5 hills, coral, spreadex (1.25u)
Rabiot has started to find his shooting boots for France and he won for us last time so willing to go again at a nice price.
Not really much more to add from the last write-up I did on Rabiot, this has won in his last 2 World Cup starts and when playing LCM/LCDM he’s registered two shots in 15/30 for Club and Country (1.72 P90).
For country he's had 2 or more shots in 9/20 (Pictured). Hit rates do not hold great predictive power so it is purely additive information, but the model is saying around 2.0 for the fair odds tonight.
Adrien Rabiot O1.5 Shots @ 2.7 Kambi, 2.37 bet365,2.55 unibet,2.5 hills, coral, spreadex (1.25u)
Rabiot has started to find his shooting boots for France and he won for us last time so willing to go again at a nice price.
Not really much more to add from the last write-up I did on Rabiot, this has won in his last 2 World Cup starts and when playing LCM/LCDM he’s registered two shots in 15/30 for Club and Country (1.72 P90).
For country he's had 2 or more shots in 9/20 (Pictured). Hit rates do not hold great predictive power so it is purely additive information, but the model is saying around 2.0 for the fair odds tonight.
❤22
Spain v Belgium
Nathan Ngoy to be booked @ 5.00 (0.75u) has dropped on 365 since I tipped it to my group but other bookmakers have still got it.
In the 3 games Ngoy has featured in he’s committed 2,2,1 fouls and was sent off against Iran for denial of a clear goal scoring opportunity.
Belgium will look to sit deep and soak up any Spanish attacks, so full concentration is needed from Ngoy but he’s proved he’s unable to do it with his consistent fouling and his red card.
Renato Veiga was booked for Portugal in the last round against spay, playing in the same position as Ngoy and at least one defender had been booked against Spain in 4/5 World Cup matches.
My model has Ngoy at fair odds of 3.70-4.00 for a yellow card, hopefully we see that lapse in concentration leading to a rash foul.
Nathan Ngoy to be booked @ 5.00 (0.75u) has dropped on 365 since I tipped it to my group but other bookmakers have still got it.
In the 3 games Ngoy has featured in he’s committed 2,2,1 fouls and was sent off against Iran for denial of a clear goal scoring opportunity.
Belgium will look to sit deep and soak up any Spanish attacks, so full concentration is needed from Ngoy but he’s proved he’s unable to do it with his consistent fouling and his red card.
Renato Veiga was booked for Portugal in the last round against spay, playing in the same position as Ngoy and at least one defender had been booked against Spain in 4/5 World Cup matches.
My model has Ngoy at fair odds of 3.70-4.00 for a yellow card, hopefully we see that lapse in concentration leading to a rash foul.
❤4💔4