Ecuador vs Curacao
Jeremy Antonisse - O0.5 Shots @ 1.72 (1u)
For club and country Antonisse has managed a shot in 26/30 and also off the bench against Scotland in a friendly, taking 2.77 shots P90.
Of course, Ecuador are streaks above the likes of Bermuda, Aruba and Trinidad&Tobago who are common opponents for Curacao, but a LW has taken a shot in 16/24 vs Ecuador and with them needing a win, they could leave themselves open to a Curacao counter attack led by Antonisse and Chong.
Our model is pretty powerful, so I’m impressed that even with 26/30, the model could calculate the fair odds of 1.66 against a hard opposition instead of using hit rate as a determiner. for Antonisse to have a shot, +4.00% +EV.
But that’s without super sub included. Bet365 have super sub which makes the value closer to 10%.
Odds might drop so make sure to check on other bookmakers and
Leave a like if you’re joining us ❤️
Jeremy Antonisse - O0.5 Shots @ 1.72 (1u)
For club and country Antonisse has managed a shot in 26/30 and also off the bench against Scotland in a friendly, taking 2.77 shots P90.
Of course, Ecuador are streaks above the likes of Bermuda, Aruba and Trinidad&Tobago who are common opponents for Curacao, but a LW has taken a shot in 16/24 vs Ecuador and with them needing a win, they could leave themselves open to a Curacao counter attack led by Antonisse and Chong.
Our model is pretty powerful, so I’m impressed that even with 26/30, the model could calculate the fair odds of 1.66 against a hard opposition instead of using hit rate as a determiner. for Antonisse to have a shot, +4.00% +EV.
But that’s without super sub included. Bet365 have super sub which makes the value closer to 10%.
Odds might drop so make sure to check on other bookmakers and
Leave a like if you’re joining us ❤️
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Btw sorry for the decreased activity. I have been on holiday ☀️ (back in a couple days)
I hope you are find some good value in the World Cup, there are some great bets to be found and we have full bookmaker comparison for up to 10 bookmakers on site 👊
StatsHub.com
I hope you are find some good value in the World Cup, there are some great bets to be found and we have full bookmaker comparison for up to 10 bookmakers on site 👊
StatsHub.com
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France is heavily favored today sitting bellow 1.10 odds.
Mbappe has some very decent numbers long term (18/40) (official competitions only)
Model gives some solid value for:
Mbappe over 5.5 shots today @ 2.20
Shots model also gives good value to France expecting around 21 shots which makes it even better
Mbappe has some very decent numbers long term (18/40) (official competitions only)
Model gives some solid value for:
Mbappe over 5.5 shots today @ 2.20
Shots model also gives good value to France expecting around 21 shots which makes it even better
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StatsHub.com - Football Bets
France is heavily favored today sitting bellow 1.10 odds. Mbappe has some very decent numbers long term (18/40) (official competitions only) Model gives some solid value for: Mbappe over 5.5 shots today @ 2.20 Shots model also gives good value to France…
4 shots by HT and the game is interrupted / some delays due to conditions. Hopefully it restarts
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15% EV here
Norway vs Senegal
Idrissa Gueye - O0.5 Shots @ 1.90 (1.25u)
For club and country Gueye has registered a shot in 15/30 taking 0.84 shots P90.
Senegal have to win this game really, anything but a win will near enough doom them to third place and a potential show down with Belgium in the R32, whereas a second place finish could set them up with an all African tie against Ivory Coast.
The longer this game goes on and Senegal aren’t leading, Senegal are expected to throw more men forward, leading to more opportunity for Gueye
My model agrees with this context, giving Gueye fair odds of 1.66 for a shot, +15% +EV.
Norway vs Senegal
Idrissa Gueye - O0.5 Shots @ 1.90 (1.25u)
For club and country Gueye has registered a shot in 15/30 taking 0.84 shots P90.
Senegal have to win this game really, anything but a win will near enough doom them to third place and a potential show down with Belgium in the R32, whereas a second place finish could set them up with an all African tie against Ivory Coast.
The longer this game goes on and Senegal aren’t leading, Senegal are expected to throw more men forward, leading to more opportunity for Gueye
My model agrees with this context, giving Gueye fair odds of 1.66 for a shot, +15% +EV.
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I have not compared bookmakers as I’m still away and having issues connecting, so possibly value elsewhere too👍
StatsHub.com - Football Bets
15% EV here Norway vs Senegal Idrissa Gueye - O0.5 Shots @ 1.90 (1.25u) For club and country Gueye has registered a shot in 15/30 taking 0.84 shots P90. Senegal have to win this game really, anything but a win will near enough doom them to third place…
✅ Gueye. Anyone take the O1.5 line?
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Livano Comenecia directly against Oulai, Diomande and Sangare who are winning 1.9, 1.5 and 1.7 fouls per game.
Curacao is a mega underdog for today and Cote D'Ivoire will have the ball and attack most of the game while the opposition plays a low block defending.
Model likes this bet even if it's in a short sample here I would take the risk
Livano Comenecia to foul o1.5 @ 2.87 (plenty book coverage)
Curacao is a mega underdog for today and Cote D'Ivoire will have the ball and attack most of the game while the opposition plays a low block defending.
Model likes this bet even if it's in a short sample here I would take the risk
Livano Comenecia to foul o1.5 @ 2.87 (plenty book coverage)
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I've had around 4 of these planned in recent days, but I have been trying to release the tip at lineups to provide the most accurate information.
The problem is...
95% of the bets reccomended by the model end up dropping to near the fair odds or even lower.
I may have to start sending a few more before lineups release if that is ok with you guys
The problem is...
95% of the bets reccomended by the model end up dropping to near the fair odds or even lower.
I may have to start sending a few more before lineups release if that is ok with you guys
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StatsHub.com - Football Bets
I've had around 4 of these planned in recent days, but I have been trying to release the tip at lineups to provide the most accurate information. The problem is... 95% of the bets reccomended by the model end up dropping to near the fair odds or even lower.…
There is still a little value at 1.66, as the model doesnt factor in super sub either so that will make the +EV a bit higher.
Good luck with any bets you are on tonight
Good luck with any bets you are on tonight
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Nice work if you still tailed, and a reminder for everyone to shop around too since the bookmakers offer varying prices on player props🫡
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I’ve posted a bet to my members. I’ll be forwarding it in here if the odds hold, looking promising so far 🙏
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Forwarded from Props Model - Macca
Colombia vs Portugal
Vitinha and Nuno Mendes - O0.5 Shots Each @ 2.37 Bet365, Kambi min 2.1 (1u)
We saw the real Portugal against Uzbekistan in their 5-0 demolition job, where both Vitinha and Mendes both managed a shot.
Portugal have to win to top the group, so should see Portugal dominate the ball in a lot of dangerous areas, the longer that they can keep the ball around Colombia’s box, the more chance for Mendes and Vitinha to shoot, we also saw Mendes’ shot come from a free kick which he scored, so can also be a set piece threat
Vitinha and Nuno Mendes - O0.5 Shots Each @ 2.37 Bet365, Kambi min 2.1 (1u)
We saw the real Portugal against Uzbekistan in their 5-0 demolition job, where both Vitinha and Mendes both managed a shot.
Portugal have to win to top the group, so should see Portugal dominate the ball in a lot of dangerous areas, the longer that they can keep the ball around Colombia’s box, the more chance for Mendes and Vitinha to shoot, we also saw Mendes’ shot come from a free kick which he scored, so can also be a set piece threat
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