Plays the 10 role on the New Zealand team, had 2 shots against England, Ecuador and Colombia (with super sub)

Some good availability odds wise and an easier expected matchup against Iran.

Bet: Iran vs New Zealand

Liberato Cacace - O0.5 Shots @ 3.00 - Bet365 (1u)

During his time at Wrexham and Empoli, Cacace registered a shot in 19/30 starts, including 6 starts in a row for Wrexham before blanking in his final start against Millwall.

This game can already put both teams on the brink of qualifying for the R32 due to the draw in Belgium vs Egypt. New Zealand if they beat Iran will go against Egypt on MD2 knowing a point can see them into the R32, you have a 99% chance of qualifying with 4 points in the new World Cup format, expect both teams to be on the front foot.

My model gives Cacace fair odds of 2.01 for a shot, a massive +49.3% +EV

However one thing to note is that the model is taking a lot of his data as LWB, and he’s LB here so naturally we should account for some value decrease and somewhere maybe more like 2.2-2.4 fair so 3 is a nice price

Iraq vs Norway

Under 26.5 Match Shots @ 1.83 (1.5u)

Iraq have only lost this line in 5/20 of their last international games when playing away or on neutral ground. Before the tournament started they were expected to be battered by Spain and only conceded 13 shots and there was only 16 shots in total.

Not much shots data on Norway on the site, but in 2022 they faced Ireland who are ranked one place above Iraq, Norway managed only 10 shots that day and there was only 21 total match shots

My model is giving a 60.7% chance, +11.3% +EV

Our model really likes Enzo for a SOT, I've checked national team games and he made 5 out of the last 6 games he played.

Argentina is favorite to win the game and model also fancies their over shots which reassures me.

Enzo Fernandes to have a SOT @ 2.10

Ecuador vs Curacao

Jeremy Antonisse - O0.5 Shots @ 1.72 (1u)

For club and country Antonisse has managed a shot in 26/30 and also off the bench against Scotland in a friendly, taking 2.77 shots P90.

Of course, Ecuador are streaks above the likes of Bermuda, Aruba and Trinidad&Tobago who are common opponents for Curacao, but a LW has taken a shot in 16/24 vs Ecuador and with them needing a win, they could leave themselves open to a Curacao counter attack led by Antonisse and Chong.

Our model is pretty powerful, so I’m impressed that even with 26/30, the model could calculate the fair odds of 1.66 against a hard opposition instead of using hit rate as a determiner. for Antonisse to have a shot, +4.00% +EV.

But that’s without super sub included. Bet365 have super sub which makes the value closer to 10%.

Odds might drop so make sure to check on other bookmakers and

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France is heavily favored today sitting bellow 1.10 odds.

Mbappe has some very decent numbers long term (18/40) (official competitions only)

Model gives some solid value for:
Mbappe over 5.5 shots today @ 2.20

Shots model also gives good value to France expecting around 21 shots which makes it even better

15% EV here

Norway vs Senegal

Idrissa Gueye - O0.5 Shots @ 1.90 (1.25u)

For club and country Gueye has registered a shot in 15/30 taking 0.84 shots P90.

Senegal have to win this game really, anything but a win will near enough doom them to third place and a potential show down with Belgium in the R32, whereas a second place finish could set them up with an all African tie against Ivory Coast.

The longer this game goes on and Senegal aren’t leading, Senegal are expected to throw more men forward, leading to more opportunity for Gueye

My model agrees with this context, giving Gueye fair odds of 1.66 for a shot, +15% +EV.