Giving it you before I post on Twitter :) if you can like the tweet after, and if enough do then we can do this more often 💪

🚨 Paddy, Betfair & Sky have added tackle markets! (And we’ve added them on site for you)

🏆 World Cup: South Korea 🇰🇷 v Czech 🇨🇿
🪜 Tae-Seok Lee Tackles ladder 0.5u on each

He’s made O1.5 tackles in ALL of his last 10 games: 3,4,4,2,5,3,2,2,2,2

And also in 7/9 international games.

Bet365 also have the market with super sub.

Plays the 10 role on the New Zealand team, had 2 shots against England, Ecuador and Colombia (with super sub)

Some good availability odds wise and an easier expected matchup against Iran.

Bet: Iran vs New Zealand

Liberato Cacace - O0.5 Shots @ 3.00 - Bet365 (1u)

During his time at Wrexham and Empoli, Cacace registered a shot in 19/30 starts, including 6 starts in a row for Wrexham before blanking in his final start against Millwall.

This game can already put both teams on the brink of qualifying for the R32 due to the draw in Belgium vs Egypt. New Zealand if they beat Iran will go against Egypt on MD2 knowing a point can see them into the R32, you have a 99% chance of qualifying with 4 points in the new World Cup format, expect both teams to be on the front foot.

My model gives Cacace fair odds of 2.01 for a shot, a massive +49.3% +EV

However one thing to note is that the model is taking a lot of his data as LWB, and he’s LB here so naturally we should account for some value decrease and somewhere maybe more like 2.2-2.4 fair so 3 is a nice price

Iraq vs Norway

Under 26.5 Match Shots @ 1.83 (1.5u)

Iraq have only lost this line in 5/20 of their last international games when playing away or on neutral ground. Before the tournament started they were expected to be battered by Spain and only conceded 13 shots and there was only 16 shots in total.

Not much shots data on Norway on the site, but in 2022 they faced Ireland who are ranked one place above Iraq, Norway managed only 10 shots that day and there was only 21 total match shots

My model is giving a 60.7% chance, +11.3% +EV

Our model really likes Enzo for a SOT, I've checked national team games and he made 5 out of the last 6 games he played.

Argentina is favorite to win the game and model also fancies their over shots which reassures me.

Enzo Fernandes to have a SOT @ 2.10