Falcon 9 punches a hole in the cloud layer, then lights it up!
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Submitted June 06, 2021 at 08:18AM by Space_Coast_Steve
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Submitted June 06, 2021 at 08:18AM by Space_Coast_Steve
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Sometimes you just gotta sit back and enjoy it (SXM-8)
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Submitted June 06, 2021 at 07:52AM by mdcainjr
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Submitted June 06, 2021 at 07:52AM by mdcainjr
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Starship and Super Heavy Orbital Test Animation
https://youtu.be/iFt_LsFRFEQ
Submitted June 05, 2021 at 06:33PM by LetMeSleep21
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https://youtu.be/iFt_LsFRFEQ
Submitted June 05, 2021 at 06:33PM by LetMeSleep21
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YouTube
Starship and Super Heavy Orbital Test Animation
With suborbital Starship tests seemingly complete with SN15's successful landing, all eyes are on the first orbital test flight of a full Starship-Super Heavy stack. This test, scheduled to take place only in a few month's time, will feature the world's tallest…
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Starbase Production Diagram - 6th June 2021 https://t.co/H75tH70Nhg
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Submitted June 06, 2021 at 12:35AM by brendan290803
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Submitted June 06, 2021 at 12:35AM by brendan290803
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Reliability estimate for Falcon 9 landing
How likely is it that a Falcon 9 flight will land successfully?Using the same methodology that Ed Kyle uses at Space Launch Report, I ran some numbers to determine how reliable Falcon 9 landings are. That is, if (prior to launch), we know that a landing will be attempted, how likely is it that the landing will succeed? The short answer is that we should expect 92% of landings to succeed, and that estimate lies in a 95% confidence interval of 84%-98%. Read on for the methodology.First, I'm considering only Block 5 launches for this estimate. We have 62 attempted landings with 4 failures (B1050.1, B1056.4, B1048.5 and B1059.6). Falcon Heavy launches are excluded, as are the deliberately expended F9 launches (B1054, B1047.3 and B1046.4). Following the methodology in Lewis and Sauro, x/n is 0.94, which requires use of the Laplace estimate: (x+1) / (n+2). That gives us our 0.92 estimate mentioned above. I also calculate the Adjusted Wald Confidence Interval, which has a midpoint around 0.91 (but see paper above for why the midpoint of the confidence interval is a worse estimate than the Laplace method).I also ran the numbers for pre-Block 5 landings. Again, I excluded intentionally-expended boosters and Falcon Heavy launches. I also excluded boosters manufactured prior to the 'Full Thrust' model. That includes the first successful landing (flight 20), but excludes the failure of flight 21, as that was a v1.1 booster. Maybe that's not fair; it was a landing leg failure, not an engine failure that doomed B1017.Under the above rules, Falcon 9 landed 22 of 24 attempts. That works out to an 88% chance of successful landing when attempted, with a 95% confidence interval between 73% and 99% (smaller sample size leads to larger error bars).At this point in time, Block 5 appears to have a significant increase in landing reliability over previous booster versions. It has dipped; after losing B1048.5, the reliability decreased to 85% (0.68-0.96), but the long streak of successes afterwards brought the average back up. What none of this statistical analysis can capture is that SpaceX are now trying to recover boosters under more challenging conditions than before. B1059.6 was lost due to wear. Other boosters have successfully landed in conditions that would have been too challenging in the past. JRTI has more powerful thrusters that let it keep station more effectively. Octograbber allows the booster to be secured to the deck in weather that doesn't let humans get close.One crazy statistic to finish this up ... due to the sheer number of landing attempts, it is statistically more likely that a Falcon 9 will land (92%) than an Antares 2xx will successfully launch (91%), even though it has a spotless record with 9 successes in 9 launches. There just isn't enough data on Antares 2xx launches to give it a higher likelihood of success. See Ed Kyle's web page above for his launch reliability statistics for any number of other rockets (eg Vega at 88%)
Submitted June 07, 2021 at 02:02PM by Lufbru
via reddit https://ift.tt/3g43lwn
How likely is it that a Falcon 9 flight will land successfully?Using the same methodology that Ed Kyle uses at Space Launch Report, I ran some numbers to determine how reliable Falcon 9 landings are. That is, if (prior to launch), we know that a landing will be attempted, how likely is it that the landing will succeed? The short answer is that we should expect 92% of landings to succeed, and that estimate lies in a 95% confidence interval of 84%-98%. Read on for the methodology.First, I'm considering only Block 5 launches for this estimate. We have 62 attempted landings with 4 failures (B1050.1, B1056.4, B1048.5 and B1059.6). Falcon Heavy launches are excluded, as are the deliberately expended F9 launches (B1054, B1047.3 and B1046.4). Following the methodology in Lewis and Sauro, x/n is 0.94, which requires use of the Laplace estimate: (x+1) / (n+2). That gives us our 0.92 estimate mentioned above. I also calculate the Adjusted Wald Confidence Interval, which has a midpoint around 0.91 (but see paper above for why the midpoint of the confidence interval is a worse estimate than the Laplace method).I also ran the numbers for pre-Block 5 landings. Again, I excluded intentionally-expended boosters and Falcon Heavy launches. I also excluded boosters manufactured prior to the 'Full Thrust' model. That includes the first successful landing (flight 20), but excludes the failure of flight 21, as that was a v1.1 booster. Maybe that's not fair; it was a landing leg failure, not an engine failure that doomed B1017.Under the above rules, Falcon 9 landed 22 of 24 attempts. That works out to an 88% chance of successful landing when attempted, with a 95% confidence interval between 73% and 99% (smaller sample size leads to larger error bars).At this point in time, Block 5 appears to have a significant increase in landing reliability over previous booster versions. It has dipped; after losing B1048.5, the reliability decreased to 85% (0.68-0.96), but the long streak of successes afterwards brought the average back up. What none of this statistical analysis can capture is that SpaceX are now trying to recover boosters under more challenging conditions than before. B1059.6 was lost due to wear. Other boosters have successfully landed in conditions that would have been too challenging in the past. JRTI has more powerful thrusters that let it keep station more effectively. Octograbber allows the booster to be secured to the deck in weather that doesn't let humans get close.One crazy statistic to finish this up ... due to the sheer number of landing attempts, it is statistically more likely that a Falcon 9 will land (92%) than an Antares 2xx will successfully launch (91%), even though it has a spotless record with 9 successes in 9 launches. There just isn't enough data on Antares 2xx launches to give it a higher likelihood of success. See Ed Kyle's web page above for his launch reliability statistics for any number of other rockets (eg Vega at 88%)
Submitted June 07, 2021 at 02:02PM by Lufbru
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reddit
r/spacex - Reliability estimate for Falcon 9 landing
195 votes and 90 comments so far on Reddit
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Non-profit asks Cameron County stop Boca Chica Beach closures for the rest of the year
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Submitted June 11, 2021 at 04:33PM by Pabi_tx
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Submitted June 11, 2021 at 04:33PM by Pabi_tx
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MyRGV.com
Nonprofit seeks end to Boca Chica Beach closures
A non-profit Texas organization says SpaceX has exceeded the number of times it can make requests to Cameron County to close Highway 4 and Boca Chica Beach and has made a request road closures cease for the rest of the year.
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[SpaceX on Twitter] Falcon 9 static fire complete—targeting Thursday, June 17 for launch of GPS III-5 from SLC-40 in Florida
https://twitter.com/spacex/status/1403811201411293188?s=21
Submitted June 12, 2021 at 10:28PM by RevRickee
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https://twitter.com/spacex/status/1403811201411293188?s=21
Submitted June 12, 2021 at 10:28PM by RevRickee
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Twitter
SpaceX
Falcon 9 static fire complete—targeting Thursday, June 17 for launch of GPS III-5 from SLC-40 in Florida
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Elon Musk: After several successful launches, land overflight earlier in trajectory passes E-sub-c safety threshold. That said, Starship will also launch from Cape long-term.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1404336029776027651
Submitted June 14, 2021 at 10:41AM by CProphet
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https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1404336029776027651
Submitted June 14, 2021 at 10:41AM by CProphet
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Twitter
Elon Musk
@PPathole @DELTA_V @spacex360 After several successful launches, land overflight earlier in trajectory passes E-sub-c safety threshold. That said, Starship will also launch from Cape long-term.
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NASA, SpaceX Update Crew Launch and Return Dates
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Submitted June 14, 2021 at 05:38PM by soldato_fantasma
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Submitted June 14, 2021 at 05:38PM by soldato_fantasma
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blogs.nasa.gov
NASA, SpaceX Update Crew Launch and Return Dates
NASA and SpaceX have adjusted target launch and return dates for upcoming crew missions to and from the International Space Station based on visiting vehicle traffic.
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Space Force clears SpaceX to launch reused rockets for military missions
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Submitted June 15, 2021 at 02:51AM by youngmurphys
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Submitted June 15, 2021 at 02:51AM by youngmurphys
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CNBC
Space Force clears SpaceX to launch reused rockets for military missions
The Pentagon is allowing Elon Musk's company to send a national security satellite to orbit with a reused rocket for the first time.
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Elon Musk on Twitter: "Stacking Super Heavy Aft Section"
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1404707141102059520
Submitted June 15, 2021 at 09:50AM by OOFYYYyyYy
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https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1404707141102059520
Submitted June 15, 2021 at 09:50AM by OOFYYYyyYy
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Twitter
Elon Musk
Stacking Super Heavy Aft Section
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Forwarded from SpaceX Feed
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From the top of Starbase high bay
Source: @elonmusk
Source: @elonmusk
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Introducing Launcher Orbiter - the first orbital transfer vehicle compatible with both SpaceX Falcon 9 rideshare and a dedicated small launch vehicle (Launcher Light).
https://twitter.com/launcher/status/1404790736105578497
Submitted June 15, 2021 at 04:13PM by Sasamj
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https://twitter.com/launcher/status/1404790736105578497
Submitted June 15, 2021 at 04:13PM by Sasamj
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Twitter
LΛUNCHER
Introducing Launcher Orbiter - the first orbital transfer vehicle compatible with both SpaceX Falcon 9 rideshare and a dedicated small launch vehicle (Launcher Light). Orbiter is contracted with @spacex to Fly to Sun-Synchronous Orbit in October 2022. la…
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Cameron County District Attorney notifies SpaceX Boca Chica actions regarding unauthorized road closures
https://twitter.com/rudymtweets/status/1404917614032338957?s=21
Submitted June 16, 2021 at 01:42AM by dougbrec
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https://twitter.com/rudymtweets/status/1404917614032338957?s=21
Submitted June 16, 2021 at 01:42AM by dougbrec
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Twitter
Rudy Mireles
Just in: Cameron County District Attorney notifies #SpaceX Boca Chica that unauthorized road closures and enforcement by contracted security officers may be in violation of state laws including felonious impersonation of a public servant. #RGV @krgv
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SpaceX ignored last-minute warnings from the FAA before December Starship launch
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Submitted June 15, 2021 at 10:40PM by pdebie
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Submitted June 15, 2021 at 10:40PM by pdebie
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The Verge
SpaceX ignored last-minute warnings from the FAA before December Starship launch
SpaceX launched the rocket anyway.
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