MAGNIFICENT ERUPTION: For days, astronomers around the world have been monitoring a colossal prominence dancing over the sun's southeastern limb. It just erupted. Cameras's onboard NOAA's GOES-16 satellite recorded a magnificent uncurling of the structure, which also hurled a CME into space. The CME is not Earth directed.
CME TO HIT VENUS, THEN EARTH: NASA analysts have modeled a CME that left the sun on Feb 6th. It's going to hit Venus, then Earth:
The Venus impact on Feb 9th will not cause a geomagnetic storm. It can't; Venus has no internally-generated global magnetic field. Instead, the impact will erode a small amount of atmosphere from Venus's unprotected cloudtops.
The Earth impact on Feb. 10th will play out differently. Our planet's magnetic field will intercept the CME, preventing it from reaching the atmosphere below. Reverberations from the impact could spark a G1-class geomagnetic storm with high-latitude auroras spilling out of the Arctic Circle.
The Venus impact on Feb 9th will not cause a geomagnetic storm. It can't; Venus has no internally-generated global magnetic field. Instead, the impact will erode a small amount of atmosphere from Venus's unprotected cloudtops.
The Earth impact on Feb. 10th will play out differently. Our planet's magnetic field will intercept the CME, preventing it from reaching the atmosphere below. Reverberations from the impact could spark a G1-class geomagnetic storm with high-latitude auroras spilling out of the Arctic Circle.
SUNSPOT ARCHIPELAGO: An archipelago of sunspots is growing between the primary cores of AR2941. This movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captures 48 hours of action:
https://www.spaceweather.com/images2022/09feb22/archipelago_anim_crop_strip_opt.gif
The magnetic island chain stretches nearly 200,000 km with more than a dozen moon-sized spots turning toward Earth. Altogether they have an unstable 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares. Any eruptions today will be Earth-directed.
https://www.spaceweather.com/images2022/09feb22/archipelago_anim_crop_strip_opt.gif
The magnetic island chain stretches nearly 200,000 km with more than a dozen moon-sized spots turning toward Earth. Altogether they have an unstable 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares. Any eruptions today will be Earth-directed.
https://www.spaceweather.com/images2022/07feb22/cme_model_crop_strip_opt.gif
CME TO HIT VENUS, THEN EARTH: NASA analysts have modeled a CME that left the sun on Feb 6th. It's going to hit Venus, then Earth:
The Venus impact on Feb 9th will not cause a geomagnetic storm. It can't; Venus has no internally-generated global magnetic field. Instead, the impact will erode a small amount of atmosphere from Venus's unprotected cloudtops.
The Earth impact on Feb. 10th will play out differently. Our planet's magnetic field will intercept the CME, preventing it from reaching the atmosphere below. Reverberations from the impact could spark a G1-class geomagnetic storm with high-latitude auroras spilling out of the Arctic Circle.
CME TO HIT VENUS, THEN EARTH: NASA analysts have modeled a CME that left the sun on Feb 6th. It's going to hit Venus, then Earth:
The Venus impact on Feb 9th will not cause a geomagnetic storm. It can't; Venus has no internally-generated global magnetic field. Instead, the impact will erode a small amount of atmosphere from Venus's unprotected cloudtops.
The Earth impact on Feb. 10th will play out differently. Our planet's magnetic field will intercept the CME, preventing it from reaching the atmosphere below. Reverberations from the impact could spark a G1-class geomagnetic storm with high-latitude auroras spilling out of the Arctic Circle.
Solar wind
speed: 544.3 km/sec
density: 8.9 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1724 UT
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C9 1708 UT Feb12
24-hr: M1 0844 UT Feb12
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1730 UT
speed: 544.3 km/sec
density: 8.9 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1724 UT
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C9 1708 UT Feb12
24-hr: M1 0844 UT Feb12
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1730 UT
AURORAS FOR VALENTINE'S DAY? NOAA forecasters say that G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on Feb. 13th and, especially, Feb. 14th, when a stream of is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. The gaseous material is flowing faster than 500 km/s from an equatorial hole in the sun's atmosphere. Valentine's skies could be very romantic, indeed.
A FLURRY OF CMEs WILL MISS EARTH: Over the weekend, the sun unleashed a flurry of CMEs. Remarkably, none of the storm clouds will hit Earth. They're all outside the strike zone. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be low for the next 3 days.
https://www.spaceweather.com/images2022/13feb22/cme_anim.gif
https://www.spaceweather.com/images2022/13feb22/cme_anim.gif
