Coronal Holes: 31 Jan 22

Solar wind flowing from this equatorial coronal hole should reach Earth on Feb. 5-6. Credit: SDO/AIA

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: A coronal mass ejection (CME) is heading for Earth. Estimated time of arrival: Feb. 2nd. This movie from SOHO shows the CME leaving the sun yesterday:

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2022/30jan22/halocme_opt.gif

CHANCE OF FLARES TODAY: NOAA forecasters say there is a 40% chance of M-class solar flares today, Jan. 31st, and a 10% chance of X-flares. The likely source would be sunspot AR2936. The behemoth active region is big enough to swallow our planet 5 times over, and it is directly facing Earth, so any flares will be geoeffective.

CME IMPACT FAILS TO PRODUCE A STORM: A coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field on Feb. 1st at 22:21 UT. Despite jolting magnetometers as far south as Hawaii (22 nT), the impact did not produce a geomagnetic storm. Not yet. NOAA forecasters caution that a storm is still possible on Feb. 2nd as Earth moves through the CME's magnetized wake. If so, it would probably be in the weakest category, G1.

Solar wind
speed: 433.7 km/sec
density: 11.8 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2049 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C2 1550 UT Feb02
24-hr: C9 2236 UT Feb01
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2055 UT

Solar wind
speed: 509.7 km/sec
density: 15.6 protons/cm3
Updated: Today at 1215 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 1117 UT Feb03
24-hr: C2 1550 UT Feb02
Updated: Today at: 1220 UT

Daily Sun: 03 Feb 22


Sunspot AR2940 has an unstable 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

Current Auroral Oval:

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 5 storm
24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm
explanation | more data

Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 12.2 nT
Bz: -0.9 nT south
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1215 UT

Coronal Holes: 03 Feb 22



Solar wind flowing from this minor equatorial coronal hole should reach Earth on Feb. 6th. Credit: SDO/AIA

Noctilucent Clouds
The southern hemisphere season for noctilucent clouds has begun. NASA's AIM spacecraft detected the first electric-blue puffs over Antarctica on Dec. 14th.

👀 CHANCE OF FLARES TODAY ☀️
Sunspot AR2940 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong M-class solar flares.

NOAA forecasters say there is a 25% chance of such an eruption during the next 24 hours.

The sunspot is almost directly facing Earth, so any flares will be geoeffective.

ESTIMATED PLANETARY K-INDEX

Have a great day! – Feb 3, 2022

Solar wind
speed: 503.5 km/sec
density: 9.1 protons/cm3
Updated: Today at 1515 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C2 1104 UT Feb04
24-hr: C2 0606 UT Feb04
Updated: Today at: 1520 UT

Daily Sun: 04 Feb 22

New sunspot AR2941 could be the leading member of a much larger group partially eclipsed by the edge of the sun. Helioseismology of the sun's farside detected the group last week. Credit: SDO/HMI

Current Auroral Oval:

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled

Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 7.4 nT
Bz: 0.6 nT north
Updated: Today at 1516 UT

Coronal Holes: 04 Feb 22

Solar wind flowing from this minor equatorial coronal hole should reach Earth on Feb. 5-6. Credit: SDO/AIA