Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled
explanation | more data

Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 5.5 nT
Bz: -0.3 nT south
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0750 UT

Coronal Holes: 30 Jan 22



Solar wind flowing from this narrow coronal hole should reach Earth on Jan 6-7. Credit: SDO/AIA

BIG SUNSPOT ALERT: New sunspot AR2936 has rapidly grown into one of the largest active regions of young Solar Cycle 25, quadrupling in size in only 48 hours. This 2-day movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows the sunspot's rapid development:



As the sunspot turns toward Earth, the chance of an Earth-directed flare is increasing. NOAA forecasters say there is a 20% chance of M-class flares today and a 5% chance of powerful X-flares--odds that could increase further as the weekend unfolds.

EARTH-DIRECTED SOLAR FLARE: Big sunspot AR2936 (described below) just produced a long duration M1-class solar flare. The slowly unfolding explosion peaked at 2332 UT on Jan. 29th and may have hurled a CME toward Earth. Stay tuned for updates.

Solar wind
speed: 456.8 km/sec
density: 4.5 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1635 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 1055 UT Jan31
24-hr: C2 2013 UT Jan30
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1640 UT

Daily Sun: 31 Jan 22

Big sunspot AR2936 poses a continued threat for M-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

Current Auroral Oval:

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet
explanation | more data

Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 5.9 nT
Bz: 0.6 nT north
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1635 UT

Coronal Holes: 31 Jan 22

Solar wind flowing from this equatorial coronal hole should reach Earth on Feb. 5-6. Credit: SDO/AIA

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: A coronal mass ejection (CME) is heading for Earth. Estimated time of arrival: Feb. 2nd. This movie from SOHO shows the CME leaving the sun yesterday:

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2022/30jan22/halocme_opt.gif

CHANCE OF FLARES TODAY: NOAA forecasters say there is a 40% chance of M-class solar flares today, Jan. 31st, and a 10% chance of X-flares. The likely source would be sunspot AR2936. The behemoth active region is big enough to swallow our planet 5 times over, and it is directly facing Earth, so any flares will be geoeffective.

CME IMPACT FAILS TO PRODUCE A STORM: A coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field on Feb. 1st at 22:21 UT. Despite jolting magnetometers as far south as Hawaii (22 nT), the impact did not produce a geomagnetic storm. Not yet. NOAA forecasters caution that a storm is still possible on Feb. 2nd as Earth moves through the CME's magnetized wake. If so, it would probably be in the weakest category, G1.

Solar wind
speed: 433.7 km/sec
density: 11.8 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2049 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C2 1550 UT Feb02
24-hr: C9 2236 UT Feb01
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2055 UT

Solar wind
speed: 509.7 km/sec
density: 15.6 protons/cm3
Updated: Today at 1215 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 1117 UT Feb03
24-hr: C2 1550 UT Feb02
Updated: Today at: 1220 UT

Daily Sun: 03 Feb 22


Sunspot AR2940 has an unstable 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

Current Auroral Oval:

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 5 storm
24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm
explanation | more data

Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 12.2 nT
Bz: -0.9 nT south
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1215 UT

Coronal Holes: 03 Feb 22



Solar wind flowing from this minor equatorial coronal hole should reach Earth on Feb. 6th. Credit: SDO/AIA

Noctilucent Clouds
The southern hemisphere season for noctilucent clouds has begun. NASA's AIM spacecraft detected the first electric-blue puffs over Antarctica on Dec. 14th.

👀 CHANCE OF FLARES TODAY ☀️
Sunspot AR2940 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong M-class solar flares.

NOAA forecasters say there is a 25% chance of such an eruption during the next 24 hours.

The sunspot is almost directly facing Earth, so any flares will be geoeffective.

ESTIMATED PLANETARY K-INDEX