CME UPDATE: Yesterday, Jan. 18th, an M1.5-class solar flare from sunspot AR2929 hurled a CME into space. NOAA forecasters have analyzed the storm cloud and determined that it probably has an Earth-directed component. A glancing blow is possible on Jan. 22-23, bringing minor geomagnetic storms and auroras to the Arctic Circle.
GEOMAGNETIC FORECAST: On Jan. 22nd, a coronal mass ejection (CME) will pass close to Earth and might deliver a glancing blow to our planet's magnetic field. Polar geomagnetic unrest is expected when the storm cloud arrives, bringing bright Arctic auroras.
BIG SOLAR FLARE: Sunspot AR2929 erupted again on Jan. 20th (0601 UT), producing a powerful M5.5-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash.
During the flare, a pulse of X-rays ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a shortwave radio blackout around the Indian Ocean: blackout map. Aviators, mariners, and ham radio operators in the area may have noticed unusual propagation effects at frequencies below 30 MHz.
The explosion probably produced a CME. Confirmation awaits fresh data from SOHO coronagraphs. Stay tuned.
During the flare, a pulse of X-rays ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a shortwave radio blackout around the Indian Ocean: blackout map. Aviators, mariners, and ham radio operators in the area may have noticed unusual propagation effects at frequencies below 30 MHz.
The explosion probably produced a CME. Confirmation awaits fresh data from SOHO coronagraphs. Stay tuned.
WEEKEND AURORA OUTLOOK: Updated modeling by NOAA forecasters suggests that only one CME will pass near Earth in the days ahead. A single glancing blow is expected on Jan. 22nd or 23rd when a CME from the Jan. 18th M1.5-class solar flare arrives. The impact could spark bright auroras inside the Arctic Circle.